The 2010 Midterm Election Thread

[BlackLantern]

yea...we've got a former mayor who tried to take out a lot of local businesses in his city because he felt they were hurting the citys economic standing and the other guy dropped out of the Senate race because he knew he would get smashed and decided to settle for Governor

 

[Matt]

Yikes.

 

[Kelly]

No problem. Angle is up by four points, but I have a feeling that Reid will pull it off. Interestingly, Barbara Boxer may not be as safe as she seems. Two polls (Suffolk and PPP) are knocking the average up, as they have Boxer at a nine point lead. The realistic estimate at this point is 3-5 %, which makes her fairly vulnerable and within the margin of error.

I heard an interview of the head of the Zogby polls, Rasmussen polls and Pew polls....both Rasmussen and Pew have been predicting a Tsunami win for Republicans for around 3 weeks now....Zogby was the only one that was holding out, and he said on Tuesday in this interview that he has changed his mind to Tsunami as well.

I honestly have no idea, but it is going to be a damn interesting night next Tuesday that is for sure...

 

[hippie_hunter]

No problem. Angle is up by four points, but I have a feeling that Reid will pull it off. Interestingly, Barbara Boxer may not be as safe as she seems. Two polls (Suffolk and PPP) are knocking the average up, as they have Boxer at a nine point lead. The realistic estimate at this point is 3-5 %, which makes her fairly vulnerable and within the margin of error.

I think by this point, Reid is done for. He isn't going to win.

He has no excuse for bringing the bacon home to Nevada by being a national figure when Nevada has the highest unemployment rate in the nation. And most of all, him being on the frontlines of the healthcare debate (while Nevada is dealing with massive unemployment), giving special deals to Nebraska, Louisiana, and Arkansas while getting no special deals for Nevada, on top of the bill being very unpopular in Nevada, is what people are going to look at on what killed Harry Reid's political carrer. One that is so toxic that it ruined his son's chances of being governor.

Now you have to take a look at the electoral facts, asides from this being a very good year for Republicans. Angle has not only been consistently leading in the polls since October, but her lead has been growing slightly, especially since the debates. Not only does Angle have the Republican vote under her belt, but she also has a double digit lead among independents.

And now let's take a look at how early voting has gone so far, in which half of the electorate participates in. Angle is leading in every single county except for Clark County (Reid's home base and where almost 70% of the population lives in). And even though Clark County is heavily Democratic, Republicans are overperforming in Clark County and polling has Reid with only a 4 percent lead. If Angle wins Nevada's second most populous county (which has about 17% of Nevada's population) and continues to be highly competitive in Clark County and slaughtering Reid in rural Nevada (which has which consists of about 15% of Nevada's population), Reid has no chance of winning.

 

[Kelly]

http://maps.google.com/intl/en_us/2010election/ratings.html

 

[hippie_hunter]

I just got back from voting. I did my civic duty, what about you?

 

[BlackLantern]

I voted....lost the cool little sticker though

 

[hippie_hunter]

They never gave me a sticker

 

[BlackLantern]

bastards

 

[hippie_hunter]

They also changed the voting too. I could have swore that last time we were able to vote for Lt. Governor and Governor separately and now we have some ******** electronic system

 

[bell110]

My prediction is the Republicans aren't going to do as well as they think. They'll pick up some seats, but I doubt they will take control of either house.

 

[hippie_hunter]

My prediction is the Republicans aren't going to do as well as they think. They'll pick up some seats, but I doubt they will take control of either house.

While I understand the sentiment of the Senate (it's going to come down to whether or not the Republicans can win in West Virginia and Washington and I think the Democrats have the advantage there), but anyone who says that the Democrats will keep the House is delusional.

The Republicans will win the House. That is a guarantee. They are going to win big in the Rust Belt, the South, and Midwest. Areas that President Obama is very unpopular.

 

[Raiden]

While I understand the sentiment of the Senate (it's going to come down to whether or not the Republicans can win in West Virginia and Washington and I think the Democrats have the advantage there), but anyone who says that the Democrats will keep the House is delusional.

The Republicans will win the House. That is a guarantee.

I think GOP will win the House as well, but they won't get the majority in the Senate.

 

[Prison Mike]

I'm going to go out to vote in a little bit!

 

[DACrowe]

Agreed. I personally would find it hilarious if by some miracle the Democrats lose let's say...38 seats and keep the House by 1 seat. After 1.5 years of boasting that they would take the HOuse it'd be pretty funny.

With that said it looks like they'll pick up 50-60 seats. The Speaker next year will be John Boehner.

The Senate is unlikely. I'm going to say that West Virginia, Washington and Nevada will (barely) stay blue and the Dems will have control of the Senate by 3-4 seats. Not that it will matter, as there are only 3-4 moderates left in the Republican caucus, taking that number down under 57 makes any Democratic legislative victories impossible. Energy Reform? Immigration Reform? Repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell?

Nope. Expect the WH to switch gears to foreign relations. If people thought this Congress was inactive, get ready for some late-90s styled gridlock. Fun times.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I think GOP will win the House as well, but they won't get the majority in the Senate.

I think that Manchin got a good late surge that will help him win.

I think that Washington is a tough state to poll due to the way Washington votes by mail. Both candidates have certain advantages over the other right now so it makes this one too close to call.

But yeah, like I said, the two states to watch are going to be Washington and West Virginia. I think that the Republicans are going to capture Pennsylvania, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Indiana, North Dakota, Arkansas, and Wisconsin, so it's going to come down to those two states.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Agreed. I personally would find it hilarious if by some miracle the Democrats lose let's say...38 seats and keep the House by 1 seat. After 1.5 years of boasting that they would take the HOuse it'd be pretty funny.

With that said it looks like they'll pick up 50-60 seats. The Speaker next year will be John Boehner.

The Senate is unlikely. I'm going to say that West Virginia, Washington and Nevada will (barely) stay blue and the Dems will have control of the Senate by 3-4 seats. Not that it will matter, as there are only 3-4 moderates left in the Republican caucus, taking that number down under 57 makes any Democratic legislative victories impossible. Energy Reform? Immigration Reform? Repeal Don't Ask Don't Tell?

Nope. Expect the WH to switch gears to foreign relations. If people thought this Congress was inactive, get ready for some late-90s styled gridlock. Fun times.

At this point, Harry Reid isn't going to win, he's done for. Angle has consistently lead in every single recent poll and Reid has no excuse for the massive amount of unemployment in Nevada. Angle is leading in every single county of Nevada except for Clark County and is competitive in Clark County. The Obama agenda is unpopular in Nevada. And she has a double digit lead over Reid among independents.

Repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell isn't going to happen unless it happens during the lame duck session of Congress. But do expect some co-operation between Obama and the Republicans on energy policy, education, immigration reform, and working on the deficit.

 

[BlackLantern]

At this point, Harry Reid isn't going to win, he's done for. Angle has consistently lead in every single recent poll and Reid has no excuse for the massive amount of unemployment in Nevada. Angle is leading in every single county of Nevada except for Clark County and is competitive in Clark County. The Obama agenda is unpopular in Nevada. And she has a double digit lead over Reid among independents.

Repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell isn't going to happen unless it happens during the lame duck session of Congress. But do expect some co-operation between Obama and the Republicans on energy policy, education, immigration reform, and working on the deficit.

pretty much.....its going to be a trade off, table DADT for now and we'll work with you on other stuff

 

[Schlosser85]

I voted a couple hours ago.

 

[Alex The Great]

Who here will be watching the election coverage on Stewart/Colbert?

 

[BlackLantern]

Ill be flipping around the various channels

 

[Prison Mike]

Just came back from voting. The whole thing took 5 seconds. There was nobody there!

 

[BlackLantern]

same at the place I went to....but I went early

 

[Prison Mike]

I thought people would be out during their lunch hour voting like in 2008 but it wasn't even close.

 

[redhawk23]

Just got back from voting for the first time. ah, the House is going be like a Donkey Abattoir. Not that congressional democrats have done crap, its really been a disapointing couple of years.