The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]456835[/split]

 

[Mr. Dent]

Seemed an appropriate time to make this...right before Iron Man takes Spidey's throne as Marvel's #1 highest grossing solo character at the movies.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I honestly don't think this is true, I feel people are reading these box office receipts from OS wrong. We are in April, and I understand that the film has been doing better in most countries than any other film this year, regardless if it's making less than TASM1.

April isn't a problem. Many countries it has been released in had holidays during the films release.

This can be read with two different perspectives: the first film turned people off;
the different release date is playing a factor, and the film could or not have better legs than TASM1.

What I think is that this film wil have way better legs than TASM, both dom and os, and that's where the film will grow. I also believe that the love story allied to the Spider-Man action is a killer combo in the making for the GA. I'm definitely interested on how the GA will be reacting to this film in the upcoming weeks.

Based on what? Using your time of the year theory, it would have worse legs.

 

[LizardMan07]

April isn't a problem. Many countries it has been released in had holidays during the films release.


Based on what?

As I've discovered over the last couple of days, blind hope apparently.

Still, his blind positivity is helping me get over [BLACKOUT]Post-Gwen-Depression-Syndrome, so it isn't all bad.[/BLACKOUT]

 

[miltonh]

And another problem is Webb's stylization, I think. It's just impossible to take these characters seriously:

 

[Avenging Spidey]

So what is happening in the territories it has already been released in?

I haven't heared from this weekend, but from the. Very few markets it opened, it did some impressive $47m from the first weekend alone. I'm aware that there are estimates claiming the film is doing a little bit less, flat or a little bit more in some countries, but the release date is definitely playing a factor, even if you want to take into account that people were turned off by the first film.

My point is that it sorts of it doesn't matter to the foreign markets if they are similar or slightly above or under, what it matters is the legs. There are Europpean countries in pretty bad shape with their money's currency going all over the place. I'm expecting good news from the international box office this Monday, and a clear picture of where this is heading after May 5th.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

April isn't a problem. Many countries it has been released in had holidays during the films release.


Based on what? Using your time of the year theory, it would have worse legs.

It's not a theory, it's a known fact: There are differences for a film released in May or July, simple as that. I'm not basing this out of blind hope or fanboyism, I'm just judging it fairly. It could get better legs than TASM1 OS, it doesn't face nothing that comes close to what TASM faced last time.

 

[Lord]

Isn't that from the Avengers? Didn't hulk break one of those things? Looks very similar.

Good point though, Robots are cooler then Goblins.

It was very similar, but no. The film even came out the year before The Avengers, so there were comparisons between both City battles. Most fanboys liked to talk about Avengers having great spectacle in that, but i honestly found the battle in TF 3 to be superior, even though the film itself wasn't all that good.

The TF franchise also didn't suffer a reboot while it's popularity is still big, Spidey did, and that is one of the reasons i think people have lost interest in it. There's also the Military stuff fanboys that will not leave interest in that franchise for as long as Michael Bay keeps putting some good scenes with the military.

I'll be honest, i have yet to see the 2nd film and the trailer didn't seem very impressive to me, however, i did like the reboot, Peter and Gwen were very well chosen and i have no doubt that this series of films also has some great moments. With all this said, i think SONY shot themselves in the foot by rebooting so soon, the previous films were too much in people's minds and it was one of the biggest franchise of the 2000s. I don't think it's just the Avengers effect, if they had kept trying to make strong Spider-Man movies (They did try with Spidey 3, even if you could argue that they failed) and kept upping the action like they were doing with each instalment, and the Transformers films are still doing with success, i don't think the franchise would be getting such disapointing results.

If the rumors of Smurfs 3 being a reboot are true, then SONY doesn't seem to learn very well with past mistakes.

 

[miltonh]

I'll be honest, i have yet to see the 2nd film and the trailer didn't seem very impressive to me, however, i did like the reboot, Peter and Gwen were very well chosen and i have no doubt that this series of films also has some great moments. With all this said, i think SONY shot themselves in the foot by rebooting so soon, the previous films were too much in people's minds and it was one of the biggest franchise of the 2000s. I don't think it's just the Avengers effect, if they had kept trying to make strong Spider-Man movies (They did try with Spidey 3, even if you could argue that they failed) and kept upping the action like they were doing with each instalment, and the Transformers films are still doing with success, i don't think the franchise would be getting such disapointing results.

If the rumors of Smurfs 3 being a reboot are true, then SONY doesn't seem to learn very well with past mistakes.

SPOT ON!!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's not a theory, it's a known fact: There are differences for a film released in May or July, simple as that. I'm not basing this out of blind hope or fanboyism, I'm just judging it fairly. It could get better legs than TASM1 OS, it doesn't face nothing that comes close to what TASM faced last time.

Why would a film released in April have better legs then a film release in July? Outside of competition of course. It would theoretically have better weekends, but not better legs.

 

[The Endless]

Exactly. Films in July have the benefit of kids being on holiday. Films in April and May don't have that advantage.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

Why would a film released in April have better legs then a film release in July? Outside of competition of course. It would theoretically have better weekends, but not better legs.

A film released in July is usually at the time that most people and schools are in vacations. That's the main reason why the weekdays appear stronger in the July released films. A film released in April can get very strong openings - like Iron Man 3 - but a phenomenon that you can already perceive even with IM3 is that the fractionated opening days for the blockbuster films make it harder to track them before the film is out everywhere.

IM3 actually had most of May to itself last year, and that's what I'm betting that will happen this year with TASM2, it'll have okayish weekdays with strong weekends, for at least a good month overseas.

I'm not sure about how much the international markets are making this weekend, but I'll be way more comfortable predicting OS after more time. It's just too many variables for us to simply put a stamp of success or failure on it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

A film released in July is usually at the time that most people and schools are in vacations. That's the main reason why the weekdays appear stronger in the July released films. A film released in April can get very strong openings - like Iron Man 3 - but a phenomenon that you can already perceive even with IM3 is that the fractionated opening days for the blockbuster films make it harder to track them before the film is out everywhere.

Yes I know. What I don't know is why that would mean a film opening in April would have better legs then a film released in July. You haven't explained this yet.

IM3 actually had most of May to itself last year, and that's what I'm betting that will happen this year with TASM2, it'll have okayish weekdays with strong weekends, for at least a good month overseas.

Why are you betting this? Iron Man 3 was a monster that came off one of the most successful films of all time. Why would TASM2 compare? Just for reference, IM3 was tracking close to its number a week out. Why would that be different for TASM2?

I'm not sure about how much the international markets are making this weekend, but I'll be way more comfortable predicting OS after more time. It's just too many variables for us to simply put a stamp of success or failure on it.

I don't think anyone stamping anything a success or failure.

 

[Avenging Spidey]

I'm not really comparing with IM3's BO, I'm comparing the release dates. I'm awfully tired of talking about what ifs though, if you want to believe for a fact that this will fall short of the first film and that it doesn't have a chance to grow bigger, make yourself comfortable.

 

[LizardMan07]

Avenging Spidey what are you basing your optimism off exactly? A lot of signs are pointing towards it dipping lower than the first film, how do you shrug that off? It got beaten by "The Other Women" in Australia, was that part of the grand plan to make it to 1 billion?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I'm not really comparing with IM3's BO, I'm comparing the release dates. I'm awfully tired of talking about what ifs though, if you want to believe for a fact that this will fall short of the first film and that it doesn't have a chance to grow bigger, make yourself comfortable.

This is classic over-dramatic deflection. No one has said that tonight, especially not me. You continue to put words in my mouth. You also keep on bringing up things, like having better legs in April, and then refuse to explain why you said this.

If you are not comparing it to IM3, stop bringing up IM3. Similar release dates don't take into account each films box office potential or the competition they face.

Avenging Spidey what are you basing your optimism off exactly? A lot of signs are pointing towards it dipping lower than the first film, how do you shrug that off? It got beaten by "The Other Women" in Australia, was that part of the grand plan to make it to 1 billion?

I wouldn't say that. China should do much better, and if it holds or does better domestically, it will pass the first film. But not by much, at least going by the numbers we have so far.

 

[LizardMan07]

This is classic over-dramatic deflection. No one has said that tonight, especially not me. You continue to put words in my mouth. You also keep on bringing up things, like having better legs in April, and then refuse to explain why you said this.

If you are not comparing it to IM3, stop bringing up IM3. Similar release dates don't take into account each films box office potential or the competition they face.


I wouldn't say that. China should do much better, and if it holds or does better domestically, it will past the first film. But not by much, at least going by the numbers we have so far.

I thought people were saying some openings were "X amount worse" than TASM and various other things. That's good if it does better than the first film, I'd be happy with 750-800 million but I know a lot of people wouldn't be

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I thought people were saying some openings were "X amount worse" than TASM and various other things. That's good if it does better than the first film, I'd be happy with 750-800 million but I know a lot of people wouldn't be

It isn't doing great yet, but China should do a lot better, and their are still other major markets to come. If TASM2 doubles in China, that would be $100mil, which would be a big number.

But $750-800mil wouldn't probably make the studio happy in the least. It is going to need to do more.

 

[LizardMan07]

What do you think it's going to do?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What do you think it's going to do?

Right now? Hard to say without opening numbers for the US and China, but I'd say $780mil is a solid guess. If it did more or less I would not be surprised in the least.

 

[LizardMan07]

Spoiler

Hopefully it gets a little less so it gives sony a good kick up the **** to give us a really cracking film now that they've lost the best part of the franchise. (Emma and Andrew's on/offscreen relationship, made the films to be honest)

If they made less money surely they'd try to put everything they had into TASM3 to save the franchise?

Isn't it sad, we've gone from 90% on RT and 1 billion, to "oh it's just early days, it will make plenty in the box office", to "I hope it does poor to give sony a wake up call".

Better clarify that I still loved the first two films but I hold serious concerns for the third

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Could you please cover that spoiler BRAB? I already know, but others might not.

 

[LizardMan07]

So sorry to anyone who I spoiled! Covered the whole thing just in case for anyone else. So annoyed!

Keep forgetting people in the US haven't seen it even though you literally mentioned that a few posts ago.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So sorry to anyone who I spoiled! Covered the whole thing just in case for anyone else. So annoyed!

Keep forgetting people in the US haven't seen it even though you literally mentioned that a few posts ago.

Pretty easy to forget imo. After all, isn't it usually the other way around with Australia? Don't you usually get films later?

 

[LizardMan07]

Yeah everything here is generally much later and more expensive. Weird feeling getting something two weeks before the US actually.