The Amazing Spider-Man 2 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Ms. Marvel]

Compared? I said fast turned things around pretty concisely(now one of the biggest brands and hotly antip) and spiderman can as well. Not talking about comparing these films to those in terms of content or perception or what not.

Sorry I should have made it clear that I was referring more to the people who say things like "it doesn't matter if the reviews aren't great, TF always does well despite the bad reviews". I guess just wouldn't want a franchise I am actually passionate about to be put in the same league as the TF series (even though I actually enjoy the movies).

 

[Marvin]

Sorry I should have made it clear that I was referring more to the people who say things like "it doesn't matter if the reviews aren't great, TF always does well despite the bad reviews". I guess just wouldn't want a franchise I am actually passionate about to be put in the same league as the TF series (even though I actually enjoy the movies).

I see.
That being said when it comes to Sony, owning TF(toys included) might be far better position than are in currently. Most studios probably feel the same. Guess it's pretty different for fans though.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

From Variety's very positive piece on ASM2's opening:

The “Captain” sequel, which so far has collected a whopping $680 million globally, likely stole some of “Spider-Man’s” thunder; this weekend, “Winter Solder” grossed $7.8 million — down just 52% — even with “Spider-Man” entering the market.

I loved Cap2, but you have to wonder what happens when ASM2 faces real competition. If Cap on it's fourth week stole Spider-Man's thunder, what will Godzilla do to the three week old movie?

 

[strugler]

From Variety's very positive piece on ASM2's opening:



I loved Cap2, but you have to wonder what happens when ASM2 faces real competition. If Cap on it's fourth week stole Spider-Man's thunder, what will Godzilla do to the three week old movie?

Stomp on it probably and then roar (pun intended indeed)

Just watched asm2 and thought it was great btw.

 

[Moridin]

ASM3 is going to take something momentous to regain the former Spidey glory.
MCU, more superhero movies in general, franchise fatique. Spidey has a mountain to claim with the 3rd movie.

Skyfall turned around the disappointing QoS (putting it mildly I thought that movie was a PoS) so it's not impossible. But despite largely the same cast as QoS, in it's favor Skyfall had;
1) Oscar winning director (I think).
2) Arguably THE best cinematographer in the business.
3) A brilliant script writer.
4) A big gap between QoS and Skyfall (allowing the dust to settle often is a big help)
5) Less spy movies in direct competition

None of which will happen for ASM3.

Skyfall also had the big Bond anniversary to play off. And then of course the great reviews and word of mouth to top it off.

I think it should also be noted though that while QoS was tepidly received, Casino Royal was met with critical & audience acclaim. Something that can't be said for TASM.

Counting Spider-man 3, TASM3 will be coming off the back of 3 tepidly received films.

As you say, it'll have a mountain to climb.


As for the point made that a franchise can turn itself around (like Fast & Furious), agreed. The question is, can the same creative team that put Spidey in this position also turn it around, and in a two year time frame to boot?

Sony will be asking themselves if they go ahead with the S6 film or fold it into TASM3. Do they use the Orci/Kurtzman TASM3 script or find new writers?

I wouldn't be surprised if TASM3 ends up being pushed back a year.

 

[venom892]

I would definitely at least have someone go over the Orci/Kurtzman script. I think ASM2 would have benefited from a rewrite or two.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So 5.18mil Monday. I was thinking 5.4mil.

 

[Tobias]

So 5.18mil Monday. I was thinking 5.4mil.

Sounds like a good number as schools are still in.

 

[spider-neil]

It won't happen but if S6 were made and it broke every superhero cliche and expectation then the idea of linking that to Spider-Man would be exciting. If the movie is a paint by numbers, been there done that movie that may kill the little love people have left for Spidey.

Spidey's future at the box office hangs in the balance. The franchise badly needs a shot in the arm. Not only does Spidey need to break the 3rd movie curse it needs to explode it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

From Variety's very positive piece on ASM2's opening:



I loved Cap2, but you have to wonder what happens when ASM2 faces real competition. If Cap on it's fourth week stole Spider-Man's thunder, what will Godzilla do to the three week old movie?

It's not going to be good. spidey I think is gonna drop hard in subsequent weeks.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

So 5.18mil Monday. I was thinking 5.4mil.

That's 1.1 million under Cap's first Monday. It's trending just about the same way the weekend numbers when comparing the two movies.

 

[Tobias]

So 5.18mil Monday. I was thinking 5.4mil.

Didn't Liam predict 7.1 million. You were lots closer.

 

[JKKS085]

That's 1.1 million under Cap's first Monday. It's trending just about the same way the weekend numbers when comparing the two movies.

It's also 2.4 millions (32%) below TASM's first monday. 77,8% is a pretty hefty drop coming from a dissapointing week end.
But then again that was predictable. 115 millions for the first seven days seems kind of an overestimation now (depending how it picks up tomorrow I guess 112/113 is more plausible).

Next week end's drop is going to be abyssmal (expect 60% or more).

 

[Tony Stark]

Horrible Monday number. TWS was at 6.2M for the same Monday, IM1 was at 6.9M, both were 73% drop. 78% is really steep.

I'm honestly feeling kind of bad for this movie. The problems with it have nothing to do with the actors, just the director, script writer and producers.

 

[Spiderdevil]

People comaring the situation to QoS and Skyfall

It is hardly the same, Bond movies are mostly stand alone films with little or no relation with the previous movie (I am yet to watch QoS)
While Webb is trying to build a universe here and establish a continuity between the movies, it doesn't help when the plan crashes and burns, you cant just sweep that under the rug and whip out a completely different script, you need to stay true to the plot of the previous movie and that way you risk digging yourself deeper with subsequent movies

 

[Ms. Marvel]

People comaring the situation to QoS and Skyfall

It is hardly the same, Bond movies are mostly stand alone films with little or no relation with the previous movie (I am yet to watch QoS)
While Webb is trying to build a universe here and establish a continuity between the movies, it doesn't help when the plan crashes and burns, you cant just sweep that under the rug and whip out a completely different script, you need to stay true to the plot of the previous movie and that way you risk digging yourself deeper with subsequent movies

That's an interesting point because QoS was kind of a continuation of CR. I never thought of it like at.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

Horrible Monday number. TWS was at 6.2M for the same Monday, IM1 was at 6.9M, both were 73% drop. 78% is really steep.

I'm honestly feeling kind of bad for this movie. The problems with it have nothing to do with the actors, just the director, script writer and producers.

If it hurts any of the actors, I think Garfield and DeHaan will take the biggest hits. Stone, Foxx, and Giamatti are respected enough and have resumes large enough that they should get away okay. Garfield will probably get it the worst, since he was the lead, fair or not.

 

[Tobias]

If it hurts any of the actors, I think Garfield and DeHaan will take the biggest hits. Stone, Foxx, and Giamatti are respected enough and have resumes large enough that they should get away okay. Garfield will probably get it the worst, since he was the lead, fair or not.

I'm not sure it hurts Garfield. TASM2 is sort of turning into the MOS of 2014. Very high BO expectations that didn't pan out. It doesn't seem to have hurt the MOS actors. Goyer the writer is the one who seems to get grief.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I wonder what the IM3 of this year will be...(if there indeed will be one).

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I'm not sure it hurts Garfield. TASM2 is sort of turning into the MOS of 2014. Very high BO expectations that didn't pan out. It doesn't seem to have hurt the MOS actors. Goyer the writer is the one who seems to get grief.

It might not, but of the actors I think he's the most at risk. I think Webb takes the heat first.

 

[Leenie]

If it hurts any of the actors, I think Garfield and DeHaan will take the biggest hits. Stone, Foxx, and Giamatti are respected enough and have resumes large enough that they should get away okay. Garfield will probably get it the worst, since he was the lead, fair or not.

I think Garfield will overall be fine, too. Most people have complimented him in these movies, despite criticisms. Also, Garfield is going to be starring in a Scorsese film. He's in good shape.

I think DeHaan is going to take the biggest hit of this movie.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Another post that goes off topic because people want to avoid the topic at hand. This is the thread about The Amazing Spider-Man 2's box office performance not Man of Steel's, that came out in 2013, get over Man of Steel already.

It's drop was probably a little harsher because of Cynco Di Mayo or however it's spelled. It should jump today then fall back down to earth on Wednesday. I still think it's falling over 60%.

 

[Tobias]

It might not, but of the actors I think he's the most at risk. I think Webb takes the heat first.

Maybe but Snyder didn't take a hit so who knows.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think Garfield will overall be fine, too. Most people have complimented him in these movies, despite criticisms. Also, Garfield is going to be starring in a Scorsese film. He's in good shape.

I think DeHaan is going to take the biggest hit of this movie.

I didn't know about the Scorsese flick. Good directors can save a career, like how Clooney wasn't damaged much by Batman & Robin thanks to David O Russell and the Coen Brothers.

 

[Tobias]

Another post that goes off topic because people want to avoid the topic at hand. This is the thread about The Amazing Spider-Man 2's box office performance not Man of Steel's, that came out in 2013, get over Man of Steel already.

It's drop was probably a little harsher because of Cynco Di Mayo or however it's spelled. It should jump today then fall back down to earth on Wednesday. I still think it's falling over 60%.

Isn't 57/58 percent a sort of normal drop for superhero films? 60% would not be good but still not far off the norm.