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The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

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Webfoot Hero said:
I'd say Captain America has moved up quite a bit so most would recognize him.
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Judging by the number of people walking around with Capt. America T-Shirt, I think it's a safe bet that he'll be recognized.

I think the fact that Marvel Studios had to make blockbuster movies not based on their most popular characters (Spider-Man, X-Men & FF) ended up helping them and it developed into a craft where they could even make a talking racoon and walking tree work. Meanwhile, DC has the Trinity and they even struggle with them, and neglecting their other lesser known characters.
 
Raiden said:
Judging by the number of people walking around with Capt. America T-Shirt, I think it's a safe bet that he'll be recognized.

I think the fact that Marvel Studios had to make blockbuster movies not based on their most popular characters (Spider-Man, X-Men & FF) ended up helping them and it developed into a craft where they could even make a talking racoon and walking tree work. Meanwhile, DC has the Trinity and they even struggle with them, and neglecting their other lesser known characters.
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It has worked out the best way possible with a strong foundation laid by some less well known characters and now they are getting rights back to the big characters they couldn’t use.
 
Kuwolski said:
Exactly, it keeps things fresh and alive and touches new people.
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In that way the movie audience and the comic book reader are in direct opposition. Comicbook readers (mostly) prefer to read the same characters featured in the same stories over and over again until the heat death of the universe. Film goers want to see new characters in fresh stories. So if you're relying on comicbook sales to determine your film slate you are making a huge mistake.
 
spiderman2 said:
That is what I have heard and some one else said that to but I don't see how that is really high. Most big movies now days cost around 200 to make.
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Well, it seems a little high because for $200 million some of the CGI was questionable and the film wasn't particularly chock full of action so if that is the actual figure then I guess the money went into some other aspect of the production.
 
No it definitely went into the visuals and action . Youre just of the opinion that they werent up to snuff. Which is fine. Not complicated.
 
Joeyjojo72 said:
No it definitely went into the visuals and action . Youre just of the opinion that they werent up to snuff. Which is fine. Not complicated.
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Yeah, I have no doubt that the CGI-Panther fight in a completely CGI environment cost Disney/Marvel some serious cash. It turned out to be a bad choice - I would have much preferred a practical brawl in the throne room - but I don't think the problem was that they skimped on the budget.
 
Well, if 200 million is the budget, they already made it back and the gravy train continues!
 
After scoring the second-best four-day opening of all time with $242 million and the best Monday ever at the domestic box office, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued to knock over box office records, earning an estimated $21.07M on Tuesday. That’s the best pre-summer Tuesday take ever, beating Beauty and the Beast‘s haul for the day last year (March 21, 2017, $17.8M), and the best Tuesday ever for an Marvel Cinematic Universe title beating The Avengers ($17.6M).

Black Panther‘s Tuesday was down 48%, giving it a running five-day take of $263.2M, still the second best ever behind Force Awakens’ five-day run of $325.4M. The Star Wars movie crossed the three-century threshold in five days, the absolute record; it took Avengers nine days to get to that level. Black Panther should hit $300M by Friday (eight days), if not before. Black Panther is estimated to ease 55%-57% in Weekend 2 for $104M-$109M.
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http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...second-weekend-box-office-preview-1202297438/
 
Zarex said:
Yeah, I have no doubt that the CGI-Panther fight in a completely CGI environment cost Disney/Marvel some serious cash. It turned out to be a bad choice - I would have much preferred a practical brawl in the throne room - but I don't think the problem was that they skimped on the budget.
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Funny that that has been highlighted as one of the weaker scenes. Should have saved that money and spent it elsewhere.
 
SomeOldGuy said:
After scoring the second-best four-day opening of all time with $242 million and the best Monday ever at the domestic box office, Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continued to knock over box office records, earning an estimated $21.07M on Tuesday. That’s the best pre-summer Tuesday take ever, beating Beauty and the Beast‘s haul for the day last year (March 21, 2017, $17.8M), and the best Tuesday ever for an Marvel Cinematic Universe title beating The Avengers ($17.6M).

Black Panther‘s Tuesday was down 48%, giving it a running five-day take of $263.2M, still the second best ever behind Force Awakens’ five-day run of $325.4M. The Star Wars movie crossed the three-century threshold in five days, the absolute record; it took Avengers nine days to get to that level. Black Panther should hit $300M by Friday (eight days), if not before. Black Panther is estimated to ease 55%-57% in Weekend 2 for $104M-$109M.
Click to expand...
http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...second-weekend-box-office-preview-1202297438/
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Great Tuesday number. The biggest Tuesday ever outside of summer or the Christmas-New Year's holiday period.

And a $104-109M 2nd weekend would really be a 46-48.5% drop, not 55-57%. A 55-57% drop from the 3-day OW would give a $86.9-90.9M 2nd weekend. Looks like they calculated the drop from the 4-day opening to the 2nd 3-day weekend, but it really doesn't make sense to calculate the drop that way.

If the weekend does end up between $104-109M that would be extremely good. A sub-50% drop for a CBM is pretty rare, and to do it after an OW that was inflated by a holiday would be very impressive. Would also put The Avengers' $623M domestic CBM record in serious danger. But let's wait and see. These early 2nd weekend projections have been way off before. Hope they're right though.
 
iEquinox said:
Great Tuesday number. The biggest Tuesday ever outside of summer or the Christmas-New Year's holiday period.

And a $104-109M 2nd weekend would really be a 46-48.5% drop, not 55-57%. A 55-57% drop from the 3-day OW would give a $86.9-90.9M 2nd weekend. Looks like they calculated the drop from the 4-day opening to the 2nd 3-day weekend, but it really doesn't make sense to calculate the drop that way.

If the weekend does end up between $104-109M that would be extremely good. A sub-50% drop for a CBM is pretty rare, and to do it after an OW that was inflated by a holiday would be very impressive. Would also put The Avengers' $623M domestic CBM record in serious danger. But let's wait and see. These early 2nd weekend projections have been way off before. Hope they're right though.
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Exactly. That's just a mistake. The drop is always calculated like-for-like, 3 day to 3 day. It's quite early to accurately predict a 2nd weekend, agreed, and it's complicated further by the holiday as you say. If it actually did come within that range I think BP would become the favourite to win against Avengers.
 
Update the the OS numbers:
deadline.com said:
‘Black Panther’ Leaps Over $200M Offshore; Lands $462M WW Through Tuesday

As Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther continues its record-breaking run at domestic turnstiles, it’s passing $200M at the international box office today. That’s after logging $199.2M through Tuesday in 48 markets. Worldwide, the Ryan Coogler-helmed superhero movie has landed $462.3M through Tuesday.

The overseas Tuesday was $14.6M to represent 11% of the opening weekend. It’s performing well ahead of Doctor Strange and slightly topping last year’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol 2 and Thor: Ragnarok, neither of which were clear comps ahead of the opening weekend that smashed expectations. Percentage-wise BP‘s first Tuesday overseas outperformed that of Captain America: Civil War which was at 10%.

[...]

Russia opens tomorrow, followed by Japan the following week and China on March 9.
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http://deadline.com/2018/02/black-p...-box-office-results-korea-success-1202297841/

(There's more info on how it's doing in individual markets in the full article)
 
Iceman said:
I thought we were at $441m as of Monday so it looks like the $462m figure adds only the domestic number of just over $20m and not the overseas number.
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$462M includes the overseas Tuesday number as well. It was at $426.75M WW after Monday.
 
Would it be possible to top CW? Has a spin-off ever done better before?
 
iEquinox said:
$462M includes the overseas Tuesday number as well. It was at $426.75M WW after Monday.
Click to expand...

Ah gotya, makes sense now. $500m right round the corner. Going to go through the sky after next weekend’s worldwide tally is added!
 
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