The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 2

[m2k]

Wow. This juggernaut looks like it's gonna be a photo finish with TLJ at no. 9 WW! This is a freaking star wars movie we talking about here folks! Woo-hoo!

 

[Fallen]

Domestic:
3. Titanic - $659,363,944
4. Jurassic World - $652,270,625
5. Black Panther - $650,699,634

Worldwide:
9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $1,332.4
10. Frozen - $1,276.5
11. Black Panther - $1,273.9

 

[Iceman]

Just keeps on going!

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

It's doing great in the Netherlands. Superhero films usually don't do great there. I think it's the highest grossing one of all time there. France is doing well too.



"Around the globe, this film has been nothing but gold for the studio.

This weekend, Europe saw yet another strong weekend with an overall regional drop-off of just -32% from last weekend. Strong holdovers were seen in Denmark (+30%), Germany (+7%), Switzerland (+2%), South Africa (-4%), Belgium (-17%), UK (-21%) and Netherlands (-25%).

Across the Asia-Pacific region, especially strongholds were seen in Singapore (-25%), Australia (-36%) and New Zealand (-42%). Box office for the region has now crossed $300M ($300.6M estimated to date). Likewise in the Latin American region where strongholds were seen in Chile (+10%), Colombia (-25%), Argentina (-29%) and Mexico (-38%). Box office for the region has now crossed $100M ($101.6M estimated to date).

The Top Five markets around the world for Black Panther are China ($104.5M) followed by the U.K. ($65.2M), South Korea ($42.8M), Brazil ($35.4M) and France ($31.1M)"

 

[Fallen]

It's doing great in the Netherlands. Superhero films usually don't do great there. I think it's the highest grossing one of all time there.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=36467739#post36467739

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[Iceman]

Pacific Rim Uprising was no competition. Fell hard from a small opening.

 

[Fallen]

With $650.7 million and counting, “Black Panther” is on track to become the third highest grossing movie ever in the U.S. and Canada. It accounted for 23% of all ticket sales in the first three months of the year, ending Saturday, according to comScore. That is the second-highest percentage ever behind only “Titanic,” which took 25% in the winter of 1998.

The success of “Black Panther” is more impressive, considering it opened Feb. 15. “Titanic” was in theaters for the entire January-March period 20 years ago.

Source: Wall Street Journal

 

[MaddScience]

BLACK PANTHER
$11.48M Weekend (Actual)
2,988 Screens / $3,844 Avg.
Weekend 7 / -32.8% Change
$650.92M Total (North America)

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/980883108831604738

 

[Flint Marko]

If this isn't the most profitable superhero film of all time, what would be? The Avengers or Deadpool?

 

[MaddScience]

If this isn't the most profitable superhero film of all time, what would be? The Avengers or Deadpool?

I don't know the numbers for The Avengers, but I would guess it's up there and the Dark Knight has to be as well. Deadpool is the most profitable cbm in the last 3 years, some $322M in gravy. Age of Ultron was profitable to the tune of $382M or so. early estimates are saying Black Panther make around $460M in profit after it's home video run.

 

[iEquinox]

I don't know the numbers for The Avengers, but I would guess it's up there and the Dark Knight has to be as well. Deadpool is the most profitable cbm in the last 3 years, some $322M in gravy. Age of Ultron was profitable to the tune of $382M or so. early estimates are saying Black Panther make around $460M in profit after it's home video run.

That estimated $460M profit can't really be compared like for like with those other profit numbers since it doesn't take any costs into account apart from Production and P&A. All those other profit figures you mentioned all take interests, overhead, off-the-tops, participations and residuals into account as well. Taking those into account brings profits down by $50-100M.

On the other hand they also underestimated the box office since they projected $650M DOM and $1.25B WW, so it should add ~$35M extra in profits from the box office. We'll have to wait a whole year to see what their final estimates look like.

 

[MaddScience]

^ those estimates were supposed to include projected home video. but imo it's gonna make more. the estimates for the home video in the US are lower than actuals for Spider-Man Homecoming. call it a feeling, Black Panther is going to comfortably do more business than that movie.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I rarely buy dvd/blu rays anymore but I can't wait to buy a phase 3 blue ray set.

I don't even need to see the rest to know it's a must buy.

 

[iEquinox]

In terms of profits in the MCU, it'll probably be 2nd only to The Avengers(DVD/Blu-Ray was bigger in 2012+it got significantly more box office revenue, which should be more than enough to outweigh the differences production budget&participations)

those estimates were supposed to include projected home video. but imo it's gonna make more. the estimates for the home video in the US are lower than actuals for Spider-Man Homecoming. call it a feeling, Black Panther is going to comfortably do more business than that movie.

They estimated Black Panther's net global home entertainment revenue to be $125M. For Homecoming that was $88.5M($126.5M revenue minus 38M in costs), so they are already expecting it to do a lot better in that category.

 

[iEquinox]

OS actuals came in higher than estimated once again. It made $8,180,880(-42.8%) for the weekend. That is an amazing hold considering it dropped 92% in China. Outside of China, it only dropped 31.4%. The remaining biggest markets are now all pretty leggy ones too, so it looks like the OS total is going to be even bigger than I was expecting last week. If it can overtake TDKR's OS total($636.8M), it would become the #5 highest grossing superhero movie of all time overseas(behind Age of Ultron, The Avengers, Iron Man 3 and Civil War).

Actuals after Sunday:

Domestic: $650,923,549
+ Foreign: $624,114,135
= Worldwide: $1,275,037,684

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel2017b.htm

 

[MaddScience]

In terms of profits in the MCU, it'll probably be 2nd only to The Avengers(DVD/Blu-Ray was bigger in 2012+it got significantly more box office revenue, which should be more than enough to outweigh the differences production budget&participations)

They estimated Black Panther's net global home entertainment revenue to be $125M. For Homecoming that was $88.5M($126.5M revenue minus 38M in costs), so they are already expecting it to do a lot better in that category.

so.... $125M is higher than $126.5M? or are the expected costs just that much lower?

any guess as to the final OS box office figure?

 

[iEquinox]

so.... $125M is higher than $126.5M? or are the expected costs just that much lower?

No, but $125M(Black Panther's estimated net home entertainment revenue) is higher than $88.5M(Homecoming's estimated net home entertainment revenue).

Black Panther's $125M already includes home video costs while Homecoming's $126.5M does not. Home video costs for Homecoming were $38M according to deadline, and 126.5-38=88.5.

 

[Iceman]

Good to see it lasting overseas even better than expected.

 

[MaddScience]

No, but $125M(Black Panther's estimated net home entertainment revenue) is higher than $88.5M(Homecoming's estimated net home entertainment revenue).

Black Panther's $125M already includes home video costs while Homecoming's $126.5M does not. Home video costs for Homecoming were $38M according to deadline, and 126.5-38=88.5.

gotcha.

 

[Iceman]

Frozen will also be down now (will be reported tomorrow). BP top 10 worldwide.

 

[InCali]

Pacific Rim Uprising was no competition. Fell hard from a small opening.

I actually went and saw it. All I can say is that it was better than Crapformers: Age of SuckStinkShun and I'll let it go without further comment. It was between that and Tomb Raider.....the latter would have made me wait 25 minutes.

Really, really happy to see BP doing so well and exhibiting such strong legs.

 

[KevTravels]

Frozen will also be down now (will be reported tomorrow). BP top 10 worldwide.

Sadly Infinity War is gonna knock it out. and maybe also the sequel. But still top 12 is pretty damn good.

I think so many have kinda forgotten about BP's record breaking success.

5 weekends at #1. You never see that happen anymore. That's like a 90's thing.

 

[Iceman]

BP overtakes Frozen just from the overseas update! Top 10 worldwide confirmed, with yesterday's domestic numbers still to be added.

 

[Iceman]

Sadly Infinity War is gonna knock it out. and maybe also the sequel. But still top 12 is pretty damn good.

I think so many have kinda forgotten about BP's record breaking success.

5 weekends at #1. You never see that happen anymore. That's like a 90's thing.

It's not sad if it gets beaten by its own sequel is it? That would be even better for the BP franchise putting it into even more untouchable territory for a solo franchise. And if IW beats it then BP will have also contributed to those IW numbers.

 

[MaddScience]

oh ye of little faith. Black Panther is going to depose The Last Jedi. I've predicted this from the opening weekend. it just deposed the abominable Jurassic World at the domestic box office, and it will get a tick past The Last Jedi at the worldwide box office. when it's all said and done after IW, Black Panther will be #10, at least for a while.