The Black Panther Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

Mendelson says $6.9 million yesterday.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...der-man-will-top-deadpool-today/#43a9f8ed5039

 

[mrkareemruiz]

Going to see Black Panther again this weekend.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Same. I'm going for the 4th time. Should do well again this weekend.

 

[iEquinox]

Disney's estimate is $6.8M for Wednesday:

Black Panther passed The Lion King, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest & The Hunger Games: Catching Fire on Wednesday to move into 17th place on the all-time domestic list after grossing an estimated $6.8M for the day. 13-Day total stands at $428.7M.

https://***********/BORReport/status/969268250377822208

Good number, still nicely ahead of the $6.34M The Avengers made on its 2nd Wednesday.

 

[Iceman]

Don't see why it would almost stay flat from Monday. I'm expecting about $7M, just over 30% drop from Tuesday

Most comparable movies (Avengers, Deadpool) also had a slighty bigger Tuesday-Wednesday drop in their 2nd week than in their first as well, so it would make sense if Black Panther followed suit.

Agreed and same here.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Most comparable movies (Avengers, Deadpool) also had a slighty bigger Tuesday-Wednesday drop in their 2nd week than in their first as well, so it would make sense if Black Panther followed suit.

Hindsight is 20-20 for me. I'll hafta keep this in mind for future endeavors. Thanks.

Don't see why it would almost stay flat from Monday. I'm expecting about $7M, just over 30% drop from Tuesday

I was thinking BP will reverse the trend and drop on the lower side since it's increase was on the lower side among the top 10 on Tuesday. I was totally wrong.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I can't wait for the rollercoaster weekend again. Is it gunning for top 3 3rd weekend ever?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I can't wait for the rollercoaster weekend again. Is it gunning for top 3 3rd weekend ever?

It will be No. 1 again the weekend by miles and miles. BP is being projected at $60 million+; the next two films, Red Sparrow and Death Wish, at around $20 million each.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Cool. I would love it if this thing pulled off a 70 plus weekend. I know I'm asking for too much tho lol. The Oscars are Sunday but the ratings have been going down for award shows and I don't think people care enough about them like that anymore. BP did very wells when the Olympics aired.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Hindsight is 20-20 for me. I'll hafta keep this in mind for future endeavors. Thanks.



I was thinking BP will reverse the trend and drop on the lower side since it's increase was on the lower side among the top 10 on Tuesday. I was totally wrong.

Are the full estimates out yet? Disney's numbers were 6.8 but Mandelson said 6.9. Maybe it stays at 6.9 or it may just edge it out to 7. I think Tuesday's first number was 10.1 but then went up to 10.2 officially.

 

[iEquinox]

The number 3 biggest 3rd weekend of all time is The Avengers with $55.64M atm. If Black Panther follows Deadpool's drops after a $6.8M Wednesday, it would get $55.7M for the weekend, just enough to get it into 3rd place on the all time list.

But Black Panther had a significantly bigger Saturday increase than Deadpool last weekend, so I'm expecting Black Panther to do the same again, and go a bit higher than that. If I had to guess right now I'd go with $60-65M for the weekend. We'll see how it goes.

 

[iEquinox]

Are the full estimates out yet? Disney's numbers were 6.8 but Mandelson said 6.9. Maybe it stays at 6.9 or it may just edge it out to 7. I think Tuesday's first number was 10.1 but then went up to 10.2 officially.

Came in just a few seconds ago(literally while I was checking the-numbers.com to make this post, lol), the exact number is $6,876,570.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2018/02/28

 

[Iceman]

I'm confident it will beat Avengers' 3rd weekend. It will most likely finish as 3rd best 3rd weekend but if the surge is big enough, Avatar's number of $68,490,688 isn't totally impossible and it could at least get close.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

In its 3rd weekend, Marvel's BLACK PANTHER will add 60+ theaters domestically--$68M (-39%) over or under?

Via @ERCboxoffice

 

[Iceman]

Adding theaters, good sign!

 

[DKDetective]

So on the topic of BP's domestic/foreign split, even if the film is "underperforming" overseas (which it is not), it doesn't matter. $1 billion with a 60/40 or 50/50 dom/inter split is far better for Disney than $1 billion with the typical MCU 30/70 or 40/60 dom/inter split due to the the way the studio and theatres split ticket sales.

 

[MaddScience]

not about Black Panther, but Avengers Infinity War is launching worldwide on April 27th. us in the USA don't have to wait.

 

[Iceman]

Looking forward to a BP/IW double bill!

 

[mrkareemruiz]

60+ theaters is great news, it had the lowest theater number when you look at all the other films that did over 200m opening weekend

 

[Iceman]

60+ theaters is great news, it had the lowest theater number when you look at all the other films that did over 200m opening weekend

Yes true. Theater owners must be celebrating like crazy as this has done way better than they would have expected. May the run continue for a very long time! t: Maybe IW coming out can give it a late boost too. (now moved to Apr 27 in U.S.)

 

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