Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 2

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]532455[/split]

 

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]494177[/split]

 

[iEquinox]

It wasn't clear that could still be the case after the second weekend.

Looked pretty clear to me. All it takes is taking a closer look. I literally said this on the day the weekend numbers came in: "I don't see it going below $300M in any scenario". I'm not someone who says something like that without a very good reason to back it up.

I understand that it might not look clear on first glance. But take a closer look and it was pretty clear. The weekday numbers are the key here, and they were overlooked by many.

Additionally, movies like Spider-Man Homecoming that aren't getting bad reviews aren't dropping that high in their second weekend regardless of how big they opened.

I think you are mistaken. There are plenty of movies with great reviews that dropped like Homecoming, or even more.

The most extreme was is probably the last Harry Potter movie(also released in July). It has 96% on rotten tomatoes with a 8.3 average rating and 100% with top critics. It dropped 72% on the 2nd weekend.

Some others July releases I can think of with drops similar or bigger than Homecoming, with very good reviews:
War for the Planet of the Apes has 93% on RT and a 8.1 average rating. It dropped 63%.
Prisoner of Azkaban got 92% on RT. It dropped 62%.
The Dark Knight Rises got 87% with a 8/10 average rating. It dropped 61.4%.
Hellboy 2 got 85% on RT. It dropped 70.7%.

Homecoming is not some unique case.

So people had to make readjustments and maybe people, me included over-reacted over the drop, but when you see a drop like that, you use the information you have at the time.

Clearly after that the numbers started to settle and the legs for Spider-Man Homecoming kicked in a lot later. But that's not the usual trend for a blockbuster such as this.

Like I said, the reactions are understandable. But they were still overreactions. People who looked at more than just the percentage it dropped in the 2nd weekend knew this. Those who didn't... probably not.

Being wrong is not a problem. Not at all. Not being able to admit when you're wrong on the other hand...
And at least you admitted you overreacted, so I give you props for that.

You think SMH can possibly make 240M in China and pass 1B WW?

In case anyone is wondering what Ozbridge meant, Despicable Me 3 is currently at $970M+ worldwide.

 

[Talion]

There's a good chance it doesn't hit either of those marks.

Let's put these numbers on the table:

1. Spider-Man 3 $890.9m WW $336.5m Dom (2007)
2. Spider-Man $821.7m WW $403.7m Dom (2002)
3. Spider-Man 2 $783.8m WW $373.6m Dom (2004)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $757.9m WW $262.0m Dom (2012)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming $737m WW $318.8m Dom (2017)
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $709m WW $202.9m Dom (2014)

I can 100% guarantee you that by the end of Spider-Man: Homecoming's box office run, the film will be third highest grossing film unadusted domestically, and it'll be at the very least the second highest grossing worldwide, with a great shot of actually becoming the highest grossing worldwide period. Take it to the bank.

 

[iEquinox]

Let's put these numbers on the table:

1. Spider-Man 3 $890.9m WW $336.5m Dom (2007)
2. Spider-Man $821.7m WW $403.7m Dom (2002)
3. Spider-Man 2 $783.8m WW $373.6m Dom (2004)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man $757.9m WW $262.0m Dom (2012)
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming $737m WW $318.8m Dom (2017)
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $709m WW $202.9m Dom (2014)

I can 100% guarantee you that by the end of Spider-Man: Homecoming's box office run, the film will be third highest grossing film unadusted domestically, and it'll be at the very least the second highest grossing worldwide, with a great shot of actually becoming the highest grossing worldwide period. Take it to the bank.

Are you sure you don't mean 4th domestically? Overtaking SM3's dometic total is still a pretty long shot. Certainly not 100% guaranteed.

It also has a shot at beating SM3 worldwide, but I wouldn't call it a "great shot". It would need to be the 3rd highest grossing MCU movie in China by a reasonably wide margin to do that(behind only Civil War and Age of Ultron). And exchange rates are not working in its favour either.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

This thread

 

[iEquinox]

Talking about admitting that I was wrong, me and iEquinox called above what Homecoming is doing this weekend domestically, Nicko-Ray was the one that got closest, but iEquinox was still closer than me, so great call. I still insist that Homecoming will easily get to $330m, with the possibility of crawling to $335-$336m by the end of the year.

Didn't Nicko-Ray say $2M? Pretty sure that means I was the closest
Anyways, who's closest doesn't really matter. What matters is the reasoning behind it.
I don't see a logical argument that it has a good shot at $335M.

And when actuals come in I think they'll be a bit higher than the $2.725M estimate. Sunday drop was probably overestimated.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Some of the actuals for the weekend went up from the early estimates, so SM:H should also increase from early figures. Seeing as SM:H held best among the holdovers over the weekend, it stands to have a good increase from estimates. 2.8 million+ is pretty much locked IMO.

 

[Flint Marko]

I admit nothing.

You should:

But it's undeniable from Sony's standpoint that the film likely underperformed.

It's undeniable at this point that you, in all of your usual eagerness to be negative, were wrong.

The movie opened well but it still had a pretty bad drop off in its second week.

Just keep clinging to that drop like it proves something. You overreacted, and most everyone (myself included) at the time told you how off base you were.

 

[iEquinox]

As expected the Sunday drop was overestimated.
They projected a 37.7% drop from Saturday a $735k Sunday, but it dropped only 29.2% on Sunday and made $833,957, nearly $100k more than the estimate for the day. Looks like the Mayweather/McGregor fight had a pretty big influence on the Saturday number, which made the Sunday drop lower.

Anyway, it made $2,820,476 over the weekend, a 33.7% drop from last weekend and the best hold in the top 10.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2017/08/25

But Ant-Man made $3.07M on the corresponding weekend, so this is still a little bit lower. With all these factors out of the way(Hurricane Harvey, Mayweather/McGregor and the Game of Thrones season finale), maybe it can get a bit closer to Ant-Man again next weekend. It surely would have been closer without them weighing this weekend down.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Nice to see this thread going strong. Much like the box office for this movie

I am going to adjust my previous prediction. $335-345 was much too high and unrealistic. $330-333 is looking more and more like the absolute ceiling. Roughly $70 million less than the first SM and $60 mil more than TASM

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...August 29, 2017

Sm $403,706,375 / $821,708,551
sm2 $373,585,825 / $783,766,341
sm3 $336,530,303 / $890,871,626
asm $262,030,663 / $757,930,663
asm2 $202,853,933 / $708,982,323
sm:hc $318,938,558 / $737,138,558

 

[Donald Thomas]

Aloha,
as of August 27, 2017
Domestic: $318,938,558 43.3%
+ Foreign: $418,200,000 56.7%
= Worldwide: $737,138,558
Spidey rules

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Aloha,
as of August 27, 2017
Domestic: $318,938,558 43.3%
+ Foreign: $418,200,000 56.7%
= Worldwide: $737,138,558
Spidey rules

Hey Donald,

I know you were one of the few who were somewhat dissatisfied with the Spider-man movies.

How would you rank them after seeing Homecoming?

 

[Darepool]

Welcome to China.

 

[Tymminator]

324,871 for Monday.

 

[TheVileOne]

You should:



It's undeniable at this point that you, in all of your usual eagerness to be negative, were wrong.



Just keep clinging to that drop like it proves something. You overreacted, and most everyone (myself included) at the time told you how off base you were.

Sorry, I don't see it that way.

 

[Surfer]

What I find interesting is that Spider-Man Homecoming after just over 4 weeks of release was knocked into the number 7 spot on August 4th. Then over the next 25 days it rose some and dropped some on the chart, but overall it managed to maintain the number 7 spot. That is some legs right there.

Surfer

 

[Donald Thomas]

Hey Donald,

I know you were one of the few who were somewhat dissatisfied with the Spider-man movies.

How would you rank them after seeing Homecoming?

Aloha,
Raimi 2-#1
Raimi 1 and Homecoming-#2
Amazing-#3
Amazing 2-#4
Raimi 3-#5
You have to appreciate that rarely does Hollywood follow the book. All of these films took certain liberties.To bring Spidey into the MCU, they had to upgrade him costume wise ( which follows Civil War in the comics). I've also seen the last 5 years or so of Spider-Man cartoons where he has been upgraded to SHIELD status with gadgets so if I am to accept the fact that I'm not in the Silver Age of comics anymore, I'll have to accept certain aspects of this New Age Spidey. I am however, VERY glad that Homecoming was able to show that poor Peter Parker was always a very bright (genius) who scavenged for parts to make his web shooters and had the intelligence all on his own to make his webbing.
Spidey rules

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Aloha,
Raimi 2-#1
Raimi 1 and Homecoming-#2
Amazing-#3
Amazing 2-#4
Raimi 3-#5
You have to appreciate that rarely does Hollywood follow the book. All of these films took certain liberties.To bring Spidey into the MCU, they had to upgrade him costume wise ( which follows Civil War in the comics). I've also seen the last 5 years or so of Spider-Man cartoons where he has been upgraded to SHIELD status with gadgets so if I am to accept the fact that I'm not in the Silver Age of comics anymore, I'll have to accept certain aspects of this New Age Spidey. I am however, VERY glad that Homecoming was able to show that poor Peter Parker was always a very bright (genius) who scavenged for parts to make his web shooters and had the intelligence all on his own to make his webbing.
Spidey rules

Yup, webshooters have never looked better. Hail, Feige!

I put Homecoming at the very top but I'm glad you at least enjoyed it.

Thanks for the response, buddy.

 

[iEquinox]

Sorry, I don't see it that way.

You don't see that you were wrong? Many things you've said in this thread were undeniably wrong.

Let's look at this post, it was a response to a post of mine which said: "who cares about the second weekend drop if the legs are still good? That's all that matters. And the legs are good, so there is no problem here.".

The multiplier is obviously infinitely more important than the 2nd weekend drop, since the only thing the 2nd weekend drop really influences is the multiplier itself. Your response:

I think what matters is, how does a film that got such great reviews and was so well received and had a pretty sizable opening for the Spider-Man franchise suffer such a huge drop in its second weekend?

As you can see, you conveniently ignored the multiplier completely. So, according to you, what matters is the percentage it dropped in the second weekend and not how much money it makes, or how good the legs are? So if a movie opens to $100M, drops 70% in the 2nd weekend and somehow still goes on to make $800M, it is a disappointment because of the 2nd weekend drop, right? That was your logic here. How exactly does that make any sense? (Also, the "sizable opening" was one of the many reasons for the bigger drop, obviously. You seem to be using it as some kind of proof for the exact opposite, which does not make any sense either)

Obviously you were unable to admit that Homecoming was showing good legs and you just kept repeating how it was the highest drop even though it didn't really matter, since it was still going to get $300M+ and have good legs.

This is not an example of where you were "wrong" in the classic sense (there are plenty of those though if you want to see some quotes). But it as an example of how you keep repeating the same thing and ignoring logic and reasoning just to avoid acknowledging that Homecoming was actually doing very well.

 

[spiderman2]

Welcome to China.

That is funny.

 

[iEquinox]

Welcome to China.

Here's the 8 other China posters:

Spoiler

They're pretty funny. It did surprise me that Iron Man isn't shown in any of them though, especially with Iron Man being in the 3 highest grossing MCU movies in China (Age of Ultron, Civil War and Iron Man 3).

For when it opens there, remember that China is a very frontloaded market, so it will probably make roughly half of its money there on opening weekend. A 2x multiplier if pretty standard now for a well received superhero movie in China.

 

[Tymminator]

For when it opens there, remember that China is a very frontloaded market, so it will probably make roughly half of its money there on opening weekend. A 2x multiplier if pretty standard now for a well received superhero movie in China.

Yeah, I remember when you said that way earlier when I was worried about WotPotA and SM:H bumping into each other in China, and I checked out past performances and saw what you were talking about.

 

[iEquinox]

$495,789 on Tuesday, a 29.2% drop from last Tuesday, very good hold.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2017/08/29

Homecoming is still beating Ant-Man's weekday numbers. (It has a bit of an edge there because slightly more schools were back in session on the same week in 2015). In comparison to Ant-Man's numbers from 1 week earlier in its release, it lost about $253k on Ant-Man over the weekend.

But for the corresponding Monday+Tuesday, Homecoming has gained $214k back on Ant-Man. The full week total will still beat Ant-Man's total this week, so it is still on track for just over $330M since it is still keeping up with Ant-Man.