Homecoming The Box Office Thread - Part 1

[spider-neil]

If Gracie said 'the sky is blue' I'd go out and check.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

http://deadline.com/2017/08/hitmans-bodyguard-birth-of-the-dragon-leap-all-saints-low-summer-box-office-weekend-mayweather-mcgregor-fight-1202156230/

8). Spider-Man: Homecoming (SONY/MARVEL), 2,122 theaters (-219)/ $757K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.65M (-38%)/Total: $318.75M/Wk 8

 

[iEquinox]

They updated it to this:

Spider-Man: Homecoming (SONY/MARVEL), 2,122 theaters (-219) / $780K Fri. / 3-day cume: $2.5M (-40%) / Total: $318.6M / Wk 8

Bit weird that they got a higher Friday figure but adjusted their weekend estimate down, but that's deadline logic I guess.

$2.5M is pretty much the bare minimum I see it getting after a 780k Friday though. There's a good chance it goes up from that even with everything holding it back. Guess they're being conservative since they're not sure what to expect. It's not really a normal weekend after all.

 

[iEquinox]

The official Friday estimate is $805,000, a little higher than deadline's last number.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-08-25&track=spiderman2017.htm

 

[spiderman2]

So the movie should be at around 740m ww by Monday I would think and around 318.5-319 USA. Right now its at about 728 WW and that dosnt include sat and sunday yet and also OS for the full week. About it trying to catch Spider-Man 3 USA it should be around 14 m or so behind Spider-Man 3 after weekend 8. Spider-Man 3 was at about 332.5m. On weekend 8 though Spider-Man 3 only made about 1.24 million though. HC should make more then that even on weekend 9. Say it does that 2.5m and has a 50% drop next weekend that would be 1.25 still more then Spider-Man 3 8th weekend by .1m and considering this weekend is going to be like lower then it normally would be because of the fight next weekend should have a smaller drop then normal. I think weekend 9 could be like 2 or something.

 

[spiderman2]

They updated it to this:

Bit weird that they got a higher Friday figure but adjusted their weekend estimate down, but that's deadline logic I guess.

$2.5M is pretty much the bare minimum I see it getting after a 780k Friday though. There's a good chance it goes up from that even with everything holding it back. Guess they're being conservative since they're not sure what to expect. It's not really a normal weekend after all.

Any way it can do 3?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

They updated it to this:

Bit weird that they got a higher Friday figure but adjusted their weekend estimate down, but that's deadline logic I guess.

$2.5M is pretty much the bare minimum I see it getting after a 780k Friday though. There's a good chance it goes up from that even with everything holding it back. Guess they're being conservative since they're not sure what to expect. It's not really a normal weekend after all.

SM:H has the best drop among the top 10 movies at the BO. Spidey holding strong in tough times.

 

[iEquinox]

So the movie should be at around 740m ww by Monday I would think and around 318.5-319 USA. Right now its at about 728 WW and that dosnt include sat and sunday yet and also OS for the full week. About it trying to catch Spider-Man 3 USA it should be around 14 m or so behind Spider-Man 3 after weekend 8. Spider-Man 3 was at about 332.5m. On weekend 8 though Spider-Man 3 only made about 1.24 million though. HC should make more then that even on weekend 9. Say it does that 2.5m and has a 50% drop next weekend that would be 1.25 still more then Spider-Man 3 8th weekend by .1m and considering this weekend is going to be like lower then it normally would be because of the fight next weekend should have a smaller drop then normal. I think weekend 9 could be like 2 or something.

I think $740M is a bit too high, it should get about $2.5M OS outside of Japan, and about $4M from Japan for the week. That would get the worldwide total up to about $736.5M after Sunday.

Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, so it'll get more than $2M for weekend 9. Without all of these factors influencing the box office hopefully it can get back to doing roughly what Ant-Man did on Labor Day weekend ($2.8M weekend, $3.7M including Monday). If it can keep up with Ant-Man it can still pass $330M. If it falls behind it's going to depend on the theater count at the end of its run and boosts from Discount Theaters to get there.

Any way it can do 3?

If Saturday goes up to $1.35M+ then it could. It needs an over 70% increase from Friday though, that's definitely possible during this time of the year with schools starting up(Ant-Man even went up by more than 80% on this same weekend) but it could be hard with Mayweather/McGregor in the evening.
I'm going with $2.8M for now, but like I said it's hard to predict this weekend.

SM:H has the best drop among the top 10 movies at the BO. Spidey holding strong in tough times.

Yeah, all things considered it's doing very well.

 

[spiderman2]

I think $740M is a bit too high, it should get about $2.5M OS outside of Japan, and about $4M from Japan for the week. That would get the worldwide total up to about $736.5M after Sunday.

Next weekend is Labor Day weekend, so it'll get more than $2M for weekend 9. Without all of these factors influencing the box office hopefully it can get back to doing roughly what Ant-Man did on Labor Day weekend ($2.8M weekend, $3.7M including Monday). If it can keep up with Ant-Man it can still pass $330M. If it falls behind it's going to depend on the theater count at the end of its run and boosts from Discount Theaters to get there.

If Saturday goes up to $1.35M+ then it could. It needs an over 70% increase from Friday though, that's definitely possible during this time of the year with schools starting up(Ant-Man even went up by more than 80% on this same weekend) but it could be hard with Mayweather/McGregor in the evening.
I'm going with $2.8M for now, but like I said it's hard to predict this weekend.

Yeah, all things considered it's doing very well.

Yeah 740 may be high was just saying it should be kind of close to 740 but I wasn't really sure what it should do in Japan though and that is the key to how close to 740 it will be. Oh I forgot that next weekend is a laybor day weekend. Oh I see so if it does 2.8 like you think then what do you think Saturday will do?

 

[TheVileOne]

$330 million definitely not happening at this point.

 

[TheVileOne]

I see Harloff on Schmoes downplayed Homecoming's box office as *not killing* by completely ignoring the fact it hasn't opened in China or giving any context as to what's happened the past decade with this franchise. People in the media don't want to entertain the possibility that this could pass WW if it performs well in China. The women on with him even called WW the highest grossing origin by conveniantly ignoring (cough) inflation*. Nice to gloss over facts to forward a story.

One thing's for sure, it won't be celebrated if it does. :wink:

Homecoming isn't an origin story film though.

 

[Darepool]

Homecoming isn't an origin story film though.

I know, the comparison would be to the first Spidey film in '02. Sold more tickets but made less(*). Not a biggie either way.

 

[TheVileOne]

Also Grace Randolph isn't credible. She claimed Disney was bribing critics to make Batman v Superman have low Rotten Tomatoes score. Her proof was it wasn't "29 percent bad" or some such.

 

[Stark Bauer]

$330 million definitely not happening at this point.

$330 million definitely happening. $335 maybe not.

 

[Talion]

$330 million definitely happening. $335 maybe not.

That's what I see it as well. Actually optimistic on getting very close to $335m and maybe topping that if Sony is clever, though.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Also Grace Randolph isn't credible. She claimed Disney was bribing critics to make Batman v Superman have low Rotten Tomatoes score. Her proof was it wasn't "29 percent bad" or some such.

Her "proof" was her opinion

 

[iEquinox]

$2,725,000 is the weekend estimate, 36.0% drop from last weekend, best hold in the top 10 this weekend. Bigger than usual drops for this time of the year for pretty much all movies, so it looks like all the factors had a pretty noticeable effect on the numbers for the weekend.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2017&wknd=34&p=.htm

It has now passed Iron Man's domestic total.

OS numbers have also been updated. Up to $418.2M OS after Sunday according to the estimates, so it made $7.2M OS over the last 7 days. No breakdowns per market yet but more than half of that is from Japan.

Worldwide total is up to $737,043,082 after Sunday according to the estimates.

 

[spiderman2]

$2,725,000 is the weekend estimate, 36.0% drop from last weekend, best hold in the top 10 this weekend. Bigger than usual drops for this time of the year for pretty much all movies, so it looks like all the factors had a pretty noticeable effect on the numbers for the weekend.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2017&wknd=34&p=.htm

It has now passed Iron Man's domestic total.

OS numbers have also been updated. Up to $418.2M OS after Sunday according to the estimates, so it made $7.2M OS over the last 7 days. No breakdowns per market yet but more than half of that is from Japan.

Worldwide total is up to $737,043,082 after Sunday according to the estimates.

So pretty close to 740 million just a little less then 3 million to go. That 36% is a nice drop with having the fight last night and with next weekend being a holliday weekend the drop should be less. I think it has around another 12 left USA and maybe like 6 OS or something. That would get it up to 755+ China. I think 850WW is almost a lock.

 

[gerrym51]

won't it get at least 100 million from china?

 

[bubbadoom]

BO update...

Sm $403,706,375 / $821,708,551
sm2 $373,585,825 / $783,766,341
sm3 $336,530,303 / $890,871,626
asm $262,030,663 / $757,930,663
asm2 $202,853,933 / $708,982,323
sm:hc $318,843,082 / $737,043,082

 

[Darepool]

won't it get at least 100 million from china?

Tough to predict that market. One of the writers on Forbes projected anywhere from 30-100 million. Pretty severe gap. Who knows?

 

[bubbadoom]

seems like its assured to pass both Amazings [domestic and ww] but hard to say with regards to the original 3...

 

[Darepool]

Yeah, going back to that Forbes article again, the speculation was that 775 m would be the low end, while 820 m+ the high end...Again, a 50 m+ swing. So if you find the middle ground, it seems that 800 m is a realistic possibility.

 

[TheVileOne]

If it does at least $800 million worldwide, that puts it at least $100 million ahead of Amazing Spider-Garbage 2.

 

[iEquinox]

I wouldn't use those Forbes articles as a source for box office projections, $800M+ should be a done deal. They've proven on multiple occasions that they don't really know what they're doing.

I mean, they're the ones who wrote this nonsense. At the time it was pretty much guaranteed that it was passing $300M:

Sony’s Spider-Man: Homecoming has earned $208 million in its first ten days of domestic release. As such, barring a fluke in either direction, it’s looking like a final domestic gross of around $265m to $285m.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...ce-is-bad-news-for-a-third-hulk/#1b12e54f320a