The end of 'traditional' blockbuster season?

[MadVillainy]

I've been saying it for years. The release date is irrelevant if the movie is good. About bloody time hollywood caught on.

Truth.

 

[mclay18]

I've been doing a little digging, and jmc is absolutely correct. Back when movies were still a novelty and had to be seen in theaters (1910-1970), the release date was irrelevant.

I don't know why studios changed their minds, but glad they're embracing it again.

 

[MadVillainy]

I always had a stupid theory that during the summer and holidays people are more willing to spend money and people are more free with their time to see movies so that's why those were the biggest seasons.


But as someone who goes to movies almost once a month. I do not care when they release it as long as the quality is there

 

[terry78]

I think the issue before is that they had a tendency to put movies they knew were troubled via production, low budget or weren't starring anyone bankable in these months. Right now I feel like the only month I could really view as a "dumping ground" is September because from Oct. on, a lot of big budget **** gets thrown out there.

 

[jmc]

I've been doing a little digging, and jmc is absolutely correct. Back when movies were still a novelty and had to be seen in theaters (1910-1970), the release date was irrelevant.

I don't know why studios changed their minds, but glad they're embracing it again.

It was Jaws and Star Wars that really started the trend, and it got progressively worse as the years rolled on. Now films are having no choice but to find alternate release dates due to shear lack of space, and surprise, surprise, good films are still making money. Who would have thought something as simple as making a good movie would have been the reason people paid money to see it? The blockbuster movie season is officially dead after this weekend with Deadpool. Good riddance.

 

[mclay18]

The blockbuster movie season is officially dead after this weekend with Deadpool. Good riddance.

It'll be dead and buried once a studio manages a $100M+ opening weekend in September. That month still has that 'dumping ground' stigma to it.

 

[Teelie]

January is actually the dumping ground. September is the month where they drop the stuff that wasn't quite good enough for blockbuster season but not good enough for the holiday season either.

 

[Shifty]

January is actually the dumping ground. September is the month where they drop the stuff that wasn't quite good enough for blockbuster season but not good enough for the holiday season either.

Soon enough some film will click in January that will open to $100M+ and September will get something with $75M+. The summer and holiday seasons are too limited and competitive that bigger films will continue to seek out less competitive stretches in the calendar.

JANUARY American Sniper $89,269,066
FEBRUARY Deadpool $132,750,000
MARCH The Hunger Games $152,535,747
APRIL Furious 7 $147,187,040

MAY The Avengers $207,438,708
JUNE Jurassic World $208,806,270
JULY Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2) $169,189,427
AUGUST Guardians of the Galaxy $94,320,883

SEPTEMBER Hotel Transylvania 2 $48,464,322
OCTOBER Gravity $55,785,112
NOVEMBER Catching Fire $158,074,286
DECEMBER Star Wars: The Force Awakens $247,966,675

American Sniper and Deadpool both opened on holiday weekends and Batman v Superman will also open on a holiday weekend. Studios will still dump their garbage in January, hidden behind the bigger films opening up. Next January looks to be the most competitive one ever. Two of those films might move and something may move to later in the year but

January 2017
• Mena (Uni.) - 1/6
• The Dark Tower (Sony) - 1/13
• Friday the 13th (2016) (Par.) - 1/13
• Geostorm (WB) - 1/13
• Hidden Figures (Fox) - 1/13
• Monster Trucks (Par.) - 1/13
• Split (Uni.) - 1/20
• A Dog's Purpose (Uni.) - 1/27
• Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (SGem) - 1/27

February 2017
• Fifty Shades Darker (Uni.) - 2/10
• The LEGO Batman Movie (WB) - 2/10
• The Mountain Between Us (Fox) - 2/10
• Bad Boys 3 (Sony) - 2/17
• Maze Runner: The Death Cure (Fox) - 2/17

January 2018
• Sherlock Gnomes (Par.) - 1/12

February 2018
• Fifty Shades Freed (Uni.) - 2/9
• Untitled Warner Animation Group Project (2018) (WB) - 2/9
• Black Panther (BV) - 2/16
• Larrikins (Fox) - 2/16


Transformers 5 just picked the same weekend as Wonder Woman next year. I think WB would be better off moving WW to April. The weekend after Fast 8 would be better than their June date.

April
• The Story of Ferdinand (Fox) - 4/7
• Fast 8 (Uni.) - 4/14

May
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (BV) - 5/5
• Mother/Daughter (Fox) - 5/12
• Baywatch (Par.) - 5/19
• Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (BV) - 5/26

June
• Barbie (Sony) - 6/2
• The House (WB) - 6/2
• The Divergent Series: Ascendant (LG/S) - 6/9
• The Mummy (2017) (Uni.) - 6/9
• World War Z 2 (Par.) - 6/9
• Cars 3 (BV) - 6/16
• Kingsman 2 (Fox) - 6/16
• Transformers 5 (Par.) - 6/23
• Wonder Woman (WB) - 6/23
• Despicable Me 3 (Uni.) - 6/30
• Uncharted (Sony) - 6/30

July
• Untitled Spider-Man (Sony) - 7/7

 

[Shifty]

Blade Runner 2 scheduled for MLK Weekend 2018.
http://deadline.com/2016/02/blade-runner-2-mlk-weekend-2018-release-date-1201705051/

 

[mclay18]

January is actually the dumping ground. September is the month where they drop the stuff that wasn't quite good enough for blockbuster season but not good enough for the holiday season either.

It's starting to shift. Even though American Sniper was technically a nationwide expansion (it went in limited release Christmas 2014), $89M 3-day/$107M 4-day opening in January is amazing. Yes, it got Oscar nominated the day before the wide release and had a fair bit of controversy. But for AS to open that big and close with $350M domestic/$541M worldwide, you figure it would've been a spring or summer release. It was one of the few highlights of 2015 for WB, which was otherwise a grueling one for the studio.

I notice that Lionsgate/Summit have dated John Wick 2 for February 2017, in that same weekend Deadpool did so well in.

 

[redhawk23]

Just in terms of quality this has got to be the best February I've ever seen given Hail Caesar, Deadpool and the Witch.

 

[terry78]

I do wanna see Race tonight, though I doubt it's gonna do massive business.

 

[Supernova]

September and january are the dumping ground for crap and test films.

February is as well outside of valentines day weekend. Even a good portion of october and novemeber can suck some years. September gets screwed because thats the first month where some blockbusters get released on bluray and home video.

 

[:eek:]

JANUARY GROSSES 2010 $1,059,619,249
FEBRUARY GROSSES 2012 $818,211,995
MARCH GROSSES 2012 $943,173,884
APRIL GROSSES 2011 $792,630,890
MAY GROSSES 2013 $1,141,863,462
JUNE GROSSES 2013 $1,246,141,267
JULY GROSSES 2011 $1,395,075,899
AUGUST GROSSES 2014 $1,019,500,912
SEPTEMBER GROSSES 2015 $626,355,408
OCTOBER GROSSES 2014 $758,014,938
NOVEMBER GROSSES 2012 $1,090,589,408
DECEMBER GROSSES 2015 $1,304,964,024

September is definitely the worst month for movie-business. More surprisingly is perhaps that the biggest January isn't so far behind the biggest November for example. Sure it's usually the big December-releases that still makes money in January that gives a boost to the month, but still. Late August and September will probably remain a period of dullness at the box office. At that time people might be a little tired of blockbusters after over three months of one big summer-movie after another

 

[terry78]

October is the month you get a lot of mid budget scifi and horror.

 

[Evil Twin]

January is only a dumping ground if you live on the coasts. Much of the US gets widening Oscar contenders in January like The Revenant.

I figure late August / September will pretty much always be a dumping ground due to school starting and that will compete for attention. And studios need somewhere to dump stuff.

Plus there are quite a few film festivals in September.

 

[:eek:]

January 2018 is starting to look crowded:

Staying with the Fox / Marvel release updates, the studio has set an Untitled Fox / Marvel Film for a release on October 6, 2017, while another Untitled Fox / Marvel Film will be coming to theaters on January 12, 2018. Could one of these be the Deadpool sequel? We’ll have to wait and see. The first project will face Andy Serkis’ The Jungle Book: Origins at Warner Bros. on October 6, 2017, while the latter is going up against the Blade Runner sequel at Warner Bros. and Paramount/MGM’s Sherlock Gnomes on January 12, 2018.

 

[Shifty]

Now there are turf wars in January!


If it is Deadpool 2 against Blade Runner 2, does WB then shift the film to October 2018 which is surprisingly empty.

The Alien sequel from Fox was scheduled for October 6, 2017 has been moved to August 2017.

 

[mclay18]

I doubt WB will move Blade Runner 2 that far, especially since it starts filming this summer. I think they'll keep it as a winter/spring 2018 release.

Odds are Deadpool 2 is that January 12, 2018 title.

 

[mclay18]

I think studios are testing October as a potential ground for blockbusters now, what with Gravity and The Martian doing phenomenally well. WB originally had Aquaman slated for October 2018 before they saw a Christmas opportunity, and moved it there. Then Sony dated Venom for the spot Aquaman just vacated.

And Blade Runner 2049 is the ultimate October wild card this year. The fact the studios moved it up from January 2018 shows they have confidence in it.

 

[Jonwo]

I think studios are testing October as a potential ground for blockbusters now, what with Gravity and The Martian doing phenomenally well. WB originally had Aquaman slated for October 2018 before they saw a Christmas opportunity, and moved it there. Then Sony dated Venom for the spot Aquaman just vacated.

And Blade Runner 2049 is the ultimate October wild card this year. The fact the studios moved it up from January 2018 shows they have confidence in it.

I'm surprised they don't put more animated films in October, Shark Tale was hugely successful but Sony and WB seem to stick with late September.

If Kingsman does great business, I think we'll see more films like that in September.

 

[Drizzle]

For all intents and purposes, March was the start of the blockbuster season this year.