Should studios spread out blockbusters over a whole year?

[Octoberist]

They may have to. But during the 'off peak' months usually that's when indie, Oscar noms, and unexpected sleeper hits thrive.

 

[mclay18]

Sequels can (and do) clean up during the off-peak months. Why studios don't do it more often instead of crowding the summer and holiday months is beyond me. If demand for a sequel is strong enough, and it's well-marketed, folks will come to see it.

Films that sell themselves, like Avengers: Age of Ultron, Episode VII or Batman/Superman, can make a killing in the springtime. And better overall legs too.

 

[terry78]

Hence the FF and Cap coming out in March and April.

 

[MrMaooz]

I'm thinking that in 2015 we'll get them more spread out if the studios are smart enough.

 

[mclay18]

They may have to. But during the 'off peak' months usually that's when indie, Oscar noms, and unexpected sleeper hits thrive.

Usually some of the sleeper hits come out of the summer -- like the first Fast & Furious and Now You See Me. The nature of sleeper hits is unpredictable... you can't really nail it to any specific season. And usually indie films that become crossover nationwide hits like Black Swan or Zero Dark Thirty hit late December or early January when the WOM is terrific and the major chains are getting requests for it.

Hence the FF and Cap coming out in March and April.

They need to it more often though. Studios are warming up to March, but I think they're still hesitant on April. They've booked all but one date for March '15, but nothing set for April '15 yet.

 

[terry78]

Marvel Studios isn't stupid, we already know this. If they **** something up they will immediately rectify it, none of that same mistake twice stuff. They see how good a lot of blockbusters do in these two months because there's nothing else really challenging them.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

You can say the same thing about November and December, and those didn't prevent folks from coming out in droves for big movies. Even in January 2010, a winter blizzard didn't prevent December holdover Avatar from smashing box-office records in that month.

November and December aren't quite as bad as January and February, plus people have a lot of time off with Thanksgiving and Christmas, people are constantly out shopping. Which is another reason why January and February are dumping grounds, people aren't too excited to spend a night at the shows just after the holidays and spending boat loads of cash. I really see January and February as kind of hibernation months. There's always going to be one or two hits during that time, but you can't count on it like summer.

And for February. If you have diverse and appealing options (other than just chick flicks) in the marketplace... those tend to flourish. Several films have made over $100M in that month that weren't romance-themed: Shutter Island, aforementioned Passion of the Christ, Safe House, and Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.

Look at the movies you listed, do any of them say to you summer blockbuster? Those movies are counter programming, smaller movies that don't need as much of a push because they didn't need to make as much to get their money back. With the exception of Passion of the Christ, the grosses for those movies you listed wouldn't cover the costs to make one of the summer blockbusters.

 

[mclay18]

Look at the movies you listed, do any of them say to you summer blockbuster? Those movies are counter programming, smaller movies that don't need as much of a push because they didn't need to make as much to get their money back. With the exception of Passion of the Christ, the grosses for those movies you listed wouldn't cover the costs to make one of the summer blockbusters.

I mentioned in my TMT post that modestly-budgeted films have a decent chance of breaking out in February. I think there's potential of a big blockbuster erupting from February akin to Passion... there hasn't been a February answer to March like 300, Hunger Games and Alice in Wonderland were.

Marvel Studios isn't stupid, we already know this. If they **** something up they will immediately rectify it, none of that same mistake twice stuff. They see how good a lot of blockbusters do in these two months because there's nothing else really challenging them.

Absolutely. Wish WB thought on the same wavelength with their superhero tentpoles.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

I mentioned in my TMT post that modestly-budgeted films have a decent chance of breaking out in February. I think there's potential of a big blockbuster erupting from February akin to Passion... there hasn't been a February answer to March like 300, Hunger Games and Alice in Wonderland were.

Absolutely. Wish WB thought on the same wavelength with their superhero tentpoles.

In terms of Passion of the Christ, look at it's release date, Ash Wednesday, it was timed perfectly to coincide with Lent. If it was released in late January/early February, it probably would've grossed a good deal less. It's not really a good movie to judge.

The Hunger Games was always going to be big because from the first trailer you could tell they did the book justice. I biggest wow movie was 300, the could've been a huge miss. Alice in Wonderland had a perfect storm Johnny Depp's schtick wasn't old yet, Tim Burton was hot as was 3D and it was based on a beloved children's story, plus it didn't have much competion.

 

[mclay18]

The Hunger Games was always going to be big because from the first trailer you could tell they did the book justice. I biggest wow movie was 300, the could've been a huge miss. Alice in Wonderland had a perfect storm Johnny Depp's schtick wasn't old yet, Tim Burton was hot as was 3D and it was based on a beloved children's story, plus it didn't have much competion.

When I saw the trailer, I honestly didn't know what to think. (I definitely didn't expect it to be as big as it did.) Considering studios tend to stick with a season or weekend for a follow-up to a hit movie, I expected Lionsgate to stick with late March for the three HG follow-ups. But they need a franchise to replace Twilight in that pre-Thanksgiving spot, and it makes sense since they want to keep the gravy train rolling.

But you never know. I guarantee you if another February movie makes over $200M domestic in the years to come -- studios will consider that as another viable month.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

The trailer for HG was pretty good, and also them not showing the actual HG in any ads or trailers was a great move too.

 

[:eek:]

With Ride Along set to open over $40 million this weekend I once again wonder why Hollywood don't realize you can make money in months they usually use as dumping ground for movies they don't have much faith in.

 

[Supernova]

Theres times like between the hobbit 2 and hunger games where nothing new ce out for almost 3 weeks besides frozen and i really wanted to go to a movie. Samething now is happening for me. I hate this time of year

 

[Gabe99]

Vulture:
When It Comes to Box Office, the Entire Year Is Summer-Movie Season Now

The Dissolve:
The Summer Movie Season is dead
The Summer Movie Season as we know it died on November 7, 2013.

THR:
Box Office: Why Summer Starts in April Now
"There's less competition in play and a lot more room to hold."

 

[Evil Twin]

I tend to agree with the above articles, especially with The Lego Movie proving that a movie can make bank in February. Basically, I'd say the only real off-seasons are early September, because the start of the school year takes a lot of attention, and January, because some point has to be a dumping ground. Even in January, you see a lot of awards contenders platform out.

I expect that it's partly driven by the theaters wanting product that people want to see year round and partly because studios are so invested in tentpoles that they need to give them space to make money.

 

[Mandon Knight]

Probably be wise but you'd never get them to agree amongst themselves who took what date during the year, in an ideal world they would alternate each year but big money swallowing corporates don't tend to have that kind of 'give and take flexibility and equal approach methodology' to them.

 

[Pickleweasel]

January, February, and September are all no no's to me but every other month seems to do Ok

 

[:eek:]

I'm sure that if you released something like Avengers or Star Wars in January, February or September it would make big money. The Passion of the Christ was released in February and made big money. The Lego Movie was released in February and is still the second biggest movie of this year domestically.

 

[:eek:]

American Sniper $76 million.

Who said movies can't make money in January?

 

[Pickleweasel]

American Sniper is shocking to me, I guess it really doesn't matter, good movies can make money wherever they come out.

 

[pr0xyt0xin]

I'm absolutely on board with this.

I go to the movies on average 20 times per year.

I'd probably go twice a month if they were more strategically placed in the early part of the year (January/February/March). Instead I take 3 months off of seeing movies for little to no reason.

 

[mclay18]

I don't know if American Sniper will make January a viable blockbuster month. But the fact that its performing like a mid-range tentpole is stunning in itself, moreso with the R-rating and subject matter. It may encourage studios to put out more war movies in January, but not a big franchise pic.

We'll see how this goes.

 

[terry78]

There really is no such thing as a dumping ground month anymore. There are movies that aren't really guaranteed tentpoles, but if you put something out in Jan-Feb or Sept-Oct there's a chance it could pan out.

 

[mclay18]

There really is no such thing as a dumping ground month anymore. There are movies that aren't really guaranteed tentpoles, but if you put something out in Jan-Feb or Sept-Oct there's a chance it could pan out.

February and October are no longer "dump" months. One could argue American Sniper also broke that line of thinking for January. In fact, WB's movies bucked the trend and became off-season hits with The Lego Movie (February 2014), Gravity (October 2013) and now American Sniper's nationwide January expansion.

I'm curious if WB will try a mid-January release for a big movie now.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I still don't see January becoming a big tentpole month because of the super unpredictable weather but American Sniper does prove that a film can open (expand really) huge in January.