The European Union

[regwec]

I haven't previously heard of "post WWII fear". Is this something experienced mainly by the minorities that Germany tried to exterminate and the neighboring states it occupied, or is it more generally prevalent?

 

[Mechanix]

Funny, any time that Germany does something that pisses off another nation, the Germans are all called Nazis, even to this day. That's the post WWII fear I'm talking about. It came out as well when Germany trounced Brazil in the WC semis.

You have referred to "nationalism" as well numerous times, even though you edited your post and tried to seem innocent (good try). And in all of your posts, you refer to Germany as "masters" and brutal revenge seekers, even though the rest of the EU is tired of Greece's BS and wanted even harsher penalties. But, all you can focus on is evil Germany.

I'm with hippie_hunter on this one. Also because his posts are factual based and not emotional and pompous.

 

[regwec]

You were the one who brought up WWII. Why do so if you don't wish to discuss it?

I find it odd that the crimes against humanity committed by Germany in the past are now used as a taboo which exonerates it from criticism. For clarity, I understand that the EU is a type of menace different to fascism, but inevitably its threat can be described in similar terms.

 

[Mechanix]

Calling Germans Nazis for beating Brazil 7-1 or implementing penalties against Greece in exchange for a 3rd bailout is ridiculous and stupid. I didn't say that the Germans can't be criticized (again, reading is important). I was talking about specifically referring to the lot of them as murderous fascists.

It's possible to disagree with their terms without going full on drama queen and talking about masters and revenge seekers.

 

[Mechanix]

Even Herakles doesn't use those terms and he's actually Greek.

Maybe you're just trying to bait, who knows.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Well, it's clear that we have a difference of opinion on this, and I am sorry if AGAIN I am appearing to "act like" I disagree,

I don't think you're acting like you disagree. I think you're honest in your disagreements.

but I retain the view that devaluation will stimulate inward investment and that will give a fillip to exports in the long run.

But where is the basis for such view. When I am demonstrating as to why abandoning the euro would be a disaster for Greece, I am explaining as to why it would be. When you say things like how a new drachma would help Greek exports, you fail to bring up Greek exports that would save them. You say how a new drachma would make Greece's labor markets more competitive and cheaper, but you don't say how.

At least when other countries devalued, they had other things going for them. Even though Argentina defaulted and devalued, they still worked a new debt deal to ensure that their creditors would still get some of their money back. They didn't have the complicated labor regulations that Western markets do. And they had an healthy agricultural export market on top of a growing commodities market from hungry economies like China to boost them. Devaluation alone didn't help Argentina, devaluation on top of other things helped Argentina.

You fail to look at Greece's economy as a whole and are taking a Paul Krugman approach of generalizations and sweeping assumptions that radical Keynesian solutions will just magically save the day.

Nobody doubts things will be tough for Greece for a generation- Germany and the EU will certainly set out to take a brutal revenge- but by far the worst outcome is the retention of Frankfurt's fiscal straightjacket and the associated erosion of political freedom, both of which will lead to Greece's permanent cyclical immiseration.

And that is your other biggest fault in your argument. When facts aren't backing you up, you just turn to making Germany look like a villain yet again and overstate their power. Even though asides from France and Luxemborg, almost all of the EU is sick of Greece's ********. Eastern Europe did all of the things Greece has done without acting like petulant children. Portugal, Ireland, Spain, and Italy all bit the austerity and reform bullet. All Germany is really doing, is essentially being the voice of what everyone else is already feeling.

Or just imagine how bad it would have been for Greece if the United Kingdom were a part of the Eurozone. Even Hollande wouldn't have been able to help Greece then. And just imagine what it will be like when the right regains power in France in a couple of years.

 

[Mechanix]

I hear about the EU being worried that if Greece exits out, they'll fall into the hands of China and/or Russia. I may be misunderstanding this, but what exactly is the deal with that?

 

[hippie_hunter]

I hear about the EU being worried that if Greece exits out, they'll fall into the hands of China and/or Russia. I may be misunderstanding this, but what exactly is the deal with that?

Geographically, Greece is very important, especially to the NATO alliance which most EU member-states are a part of. It's a key point of the Mediterranean that connects the Black (where the Russian fleet is based) and Mediterranean Seas with the Straits of Bosporus/Aegean Sea. It's the same reason why Turkey is seen as vital.

Now add in various factors like Tsprias willing to get cozy with Vladimir Putin, state-owned or affiliated Chinese companies acquiring Greek assets, the vast amounts of capital reserves that China has, and Russia willing to give attention to any radical movement, that is where the fear comes from. I would say that Russia is a bigger fear over Greek influence over the Chinese based on their actions and motives.

 

[Mechanix]

Geographically, Greece is very important, especially to the NATO alliance which most EU member-states are a part of. It's a key point of the Mediterranean that connects the Black (where the Russian fleet is based) and Mediterranean Seas with the Straits of Bosporus/Aegean Sea. It's the same reason why Turkey is seen as vital.

Now add in various factors like Tsprias willing to get cozy with Vladimir Putin, state-owned or affiliated Chinese companies acquiring Greek assets, the vast amounts of capital reserves that China has, and Russia willing to give attention to any radical movement, that is where the fear comes from. I would say that Russia is a bigger fear over Greek influence over the Chinese based on their actions and motives.

Ah, thank you.

Sounds tense. I'm surprised Greece didn't try (or maybe they did and failed) to play the NATO card or even the we'll-be-friends-with-Russia card when negotiating their bailout terms.

 

[herakles]

Even Herakles doesn't use those terms and he's actually Greek.

Maybe you're just trying to bait, who knows.

I actually like and admire Germans and Germany. I just think that Greece was unethically allowed into the Eurozone. The Euro benefits nations like Germany and France cause it favors their economies more while it hurts countries like Greece where prices went through the roof.

In all honesty there needs to be Grexit.

 

[regwec]

Hunter- with no disrespect intended, I do not see the point in either of us rehearsing (copy-pasting) arguments for and against Grexit as articulated by economists. For one thing, the prospect of failure to persuade you does not trouble me, and I have no doubt that is mutual. For another, neither of us are able to take any determinative decision on this matter, nor are we in possession of a crystal ball. The effect would therefore be us juxtaposing two extant arguments, and continuing to prefer the other one from one another.

There is, in fact, substantial agreement between us on the extend to which Greece is screwed. The essential difference is that we are, politically, diametrically opposed, and I will always be of the view that freedom from the EU is worth any price, and should certainly motivate the selection of one of two very difficult paths. You appear to have adopted a view which is resentful towards Greeks and apologist for Germany; I find that unfortunate, and I certainly don't think it is a fair assessment of recent history (in which one party has been a reckless gambler and the other has been a spiteful bully). But otherwise we can probably agree on the important point that the €uro is not, and was never destined to be, suited to all of its members. The breakdown of trust and the mythical "solidarity" within the EU is ancillary to that, but informative nevertheless.

 

[regwec]

In all honesty there needs to be Grexit.

Hear hear. Then Brexit in 2017, and so on.

 

[herakles]

Again, and I repeat this AGAIN, in order for Greece's exports to become more competitive, Greece actually needs exports to begin with.

And going back to the drachma is not going to result in Greek labor being cheaper. Keep in mind this is SYRIZA in charge, a very pro-leftist party that isn't going to just do away with the regulations associated with labor protections. They have been very resistant to the Troika's demands to liberalize the labor market in Greece (and thus make it more competitive) and will only do so when forced.

As a matter in fact, Greece's biggest exports are refined petroleum products. But Greece's most important export, requires imported crude oil to produce, that crude oil is valued in dollars and as a result it would do almost nothing to make Greek refiners more competitive or profitable on the global market.

Tourism, another important industry for Greece, wouldn't save Greece either. While a lower valued drachma would give tourists more purchasing power, Greece isn't going to look very attractive to tourists when people are protesting outside because of unemployment, austerity, high costs of living, etc.

Devaluation is not some magical wand that fixes everything. If that were the case, every country would try and make sure that their currency was worthless. Even in countries that have the export economies capable of handling a lower currency can only go so low before it becomes dangerous, just as Wiemar Germany.


Except Greece is ****ed outside of the EU. I have already said this so many times, outside of the EU, Greece will see lower volumes of trade because it will be restoring barriers between it and its largest trading partners. Prices will go up due to fewer goods entering Greece, increased costs of trade due to currency exchanges, possible tariffs, a currency that will be garbage, etc. Greek interest rates will be far too high. Greek savings accounts would be wiped out. Greek corporations and banks would still have debts that would be valued in euros, which would then become harder to pay off. And without some kind of deal about Greece's debt, Greece is going to have a hard time finding new lenders, with or without the euro.

Also, switching over to a new currency will be expensive. Computers will have to be reprogrammed, payment and vending machines will have to be re-serviced, printing presses will have to be made, and capital controls will have to be put in place in order to ensure that people will get the needed drachmas.

But of course, I am very willing to bet that you will literally ignore every logical point I have just made and you will continue to act as if Greece will be all fine and dandy once they leave the Eurozone.

Do you live in Greece?? People of Athens are starving, people are homeless (something that is absolutely alien there) women are resorting to selling themselves!

Only the villages have been isolated simply because they can feed themselves.

 

[regwec]

The human cost rarely seems to trouble the EU's fans, alas.

 

[Mechanix]

Do you live in Greece?? People of Athens are starving, people are homeless (something that is absolutely alien there) women are resorting to selling themselves!

Only the villages have been isolated simply because they can feed themselves.

And exiting the Euro wouldn't alleviate these sufferings.

Like hippie said, it's bad now and it will still be bad later, but Greece can't support its own currency. It'll make it worse.

I understand the people's desire for autonomy and returning to their own currency, but this mess won't go away if that happens.

Question for you, the Greeks would obviously see themselves as Greek first, European second (as most countries would, I expect). But, do they actually identify as European? Or would they rather align themselves differently?

 

[herakles]

The human cost rarely seems to trouble the EU's fans, alas.

Don't get me wrong Greeks are mainly at fault but the EU MUST accept it's part of the blame!

They allowed a nation who was clearly lying enter into the Eurozone. The Germans and Dutch acted like predatory lendors who didn't care if they were giving loans to people who could not possibly repay the loans! They just wanted their commission!

Best solution is a "controlled" Grexit. Set up a plan where Greece starts printing Drachmas again, allow the trade agreement to stay. Give Greece 5 years to get it's house in order if they don't then completely remove them from the EU.

 

[regwec]

@Mechaix

The difference is in the prospect for eventual alleviation, and in the inherent value of self determination.

I certainly can't tell herakles how to feel, but should my own country have suffered a similar fate, I would want to repurchase its freedom at almost any cost.

@Herakles

That would sound ideal, but it would rely on cool heads and compassion from the other €urozone heads (particularly, dare we say it lest we offend others, the big one between France and Poland). Those have been rare commodities recently.

The elephant in the room is the IMF, which is essential to the new bailout plan but which has already said it will fail miserably without debt restructuring.

 

[herakles]

@Mechaix

The difference is in the prospect for eventual alleviation, and in the inherent value of self determination.

I certainly can't tell herakles how to feel, but should my own country have suffered a similar fate, I would want to repurchase its freedom at almost any cost.

@Herakles

That would sound ideal, but it would rely on cool heads and compassion from the other €urozone heads (particularly, dare we say it lest we offend others, the big one between France and Poland). Those have been rare commodities recently.

The elephant in the room is the IMF, which is essential to the new bailout plan but which has already said it will fail miserably without debt restructuring.

The problem is that Germany is hell bent on essentially owning everything of value in Greece. Hell I bet if give then option they would teardown and ship the Acropolis to Berlin just like they did to the Temple of Zeus.

 

[regwec]

I really don't think they are sensitive to the effects of some of their illogical intransigence. They want their money's worth, even if Greece must be ruined as payment. It is extremely sad, but it lays bare the empty heart within the EU.

 

[Mechanix]

It is what it is. The Greek government screwed around with their lack of money long enough and the rest of the EU has had it. The Greek people will suffer for their government's incompetence. I don't think this has anything to do with an empty heart within the EU. We're talking about huge debts and major problems within the Greek government. They've proven themselves to be corrupt time and time again. There is no telling whether or not re-structuring the debt or erasing it completely would even benefit the people. This is the 3rd bailout for a reason. The government can't be trusted with their country's well-being.

 

[regwec]

It is the government that the Greek people elected, and Germany and the EU will respect that, whether they like it or not.

If the EU is content to ruin one of its members over debt, then it is meaningless- still born.

 

[Mechanix]

Respect is a strong word. Especially when that same government has received 2 other bailouts and didn't fix anything. And now they want another one.

If the EU has to respect a corrupt government, then the government has to respect the terms of the bailout.

 

[herakles]

It is what it is. The Greek government screwed around with their lack of money long enough and the rest of the EU has had it. The Greek people will suffer for their government's incompetence. I don't think this has anything to do with an empty heart within the EU. We're talking about huge debts and major problems within the Greek government. They've proven themselves to be corrupt time and time again. There is no telling whether or not re-structuring the debt or erasing it completely would even benefit the people. This is the 3rd bailout for a reason. The government can't be trusted with their country's well-being.

Very typical German response. The Germans knew Greece was full of s**t when they allowed Greece in. They acted like typical shady bankers wanting their commission!

Greece will NOT be able to replay all those loans and you and your Government knows that! Only solution is a Grexit. I know you like your easy holiday trip to the Aegean and your Gov loves shipping your goods to Greece tariff free!

And yes I consider myself Greek above all else! Why should I not, especially with the way my follow "Europeans" are treating my family's homeland!

 

[regwec]

@Mecnix

The EU is a corrupt government, so it should come naturally.

Two issues. Firstly, what do you think is the alternative to respecting the democratic mandate of the elected government of a member state? Secondly, the terms of the bailout are fantasy. Nobody thinks they are achievable, not even the IMF who are supposed to be providing much of the funding. Greece alone, however, will suffer all the pain. I'm afraid your delight in Greece's humiliation is exposing your authoritarian streak.

 

[Mechanix]

Very typical German response. The Germans knew Greece was full of s**t when they allowed Greece in. They acted like typical shady bankers wanting their commission!

Greece will NOT be able to replay all those loans and you and your Government knows that! Only solution is a Grexit. I know you like your easy holiday trip to the Aegean and your Gov loves shipping your goods to Greece tariff free!

And yes I consider myself Greek above all else! Why should I not, especially with the way my follow "Europeans" are treating my family's homeland!

Wow, wtf? I was trying to have a civil conversation with you. Yeesh.

I don't live in Germany. I'm a Canadian citizen. I've never travelled to Greece.

You completely mis-read the tone of my post.