The First Batch of Oscar Predictions

[Evil Twin]

Hard to handicap now, but here's my early guesses.

Best Picture
Milk <-- Getting really good buzz.
Doubt <-- Based on a Pulitzer Prize winning play, really smart, great cast
The Wrestler
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon

Alternatives: Revolutionary Road, The Road, Rachel Getting Married, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Visitor

Best Actor
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Syndoche, New York
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins - Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - Revolutionary Road

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Ralph Fiennes - The Duchess

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt

Director
The same as best picture, maybe tossing in Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky and Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire.

Adapted Screenplay
Doubt (pretty much a lock. And the likely favorite.)
TDK
Milk
Frost/Nixon
The Road

Original Screenplay
The Wrestler
Wall-E
Happy-Go-Lucky

Special Effects
Iron Man
Speed Racer
The Dark Knight

Makeup
Hellboy 2
Tropic Thunder
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Sound & Sound Effects Editing
Wall-E
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

Art Direction
Hellboy 2
Iron Man
Syndoche, New York
The Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Costumes
Iron Man
The Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess

Cinematography
TDK
Iron Man
Syndoche, New York

Editing
The Wrestler
Iron Man
Milk

Best Score
??? (I know TDK isn't eligible based on its two credited composers.)

Best Song
???

Too early to guess on foreign films.

 

[Warhammer]

I only thing I care about is a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Heath Ledger. It does not matter if he wins the posthumous award, as much as the fact that he gets nominated. It will show that the Academy is not biased.

Y'all, if The Dark Knight gets nominated, it will be for visual effects, sound editing, etc.

 

[Iron_Stark]

Heath Ledger(TDK) and Stan Winston(Iron Man) better win a damn Oscar or "there'll be Hell to pay."

 

[LegendaryCaleb]

i really feel that Heath will win Best Supporting Actor...and TDK will get a bunch of nominations

 

[Hunter Rider]

That's an odd list, no Soloist and Changeling barely acknowledged, but the misery-fests of Doubt and Revolutionary Road show big. I am not really bothered who wins and it's early yet but Frost/Nixon suddenly leading the way is a mystery.

 

[Franklin Richards]

Nixon / Frost was a big hit onstage. Which might be a reason the Academy has a hard on for it.

 

[Matt]

I only thing I care about is a Best Supporting Actor nomination for Heath Ledger. It does not matter if he wins the posthumous award, as much as the fact that he gets nominated. It will show that the Academy is not biased.

Y'all, if The Dark Knight gets nominated, it will be for visual effects, sound editing, etc.

Perhaps though, you are biased for him by your love of Batman. Was the Joker, while a very good performance, really one of the best of the year? I'm not too sure.

 

[Hunter Rider]

Perhaps though, you are biased for him by your love of Batman. Was the Joker, while a very good performance, really one of the best of the year? I'm not too sure.

I watch a lot of movies, I'll be trying to check these contenders out before the Oscars, but lets not forget we are talking nomination not win, Ive not seen 5 better supporting performances this year so far.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Let's face it. The major awards ( best film , best actor/actress , best director , best supporting actor/actress) often go to movies to the movies that aren't commercial.
You'll probably get a nomination ( Johnny Depp for the first POTC movie) but to actually get an award is pretty much out of the picture.
The only award that's given to commercial movies is best movie AND MAYBE best director.

IMO those are the only two awards i could see TDK actually getting , aside from the post-humous Best Supporting oscar/nom for heath.
But yeah TDK will probably be nominated /get :
Best Art Direction
Best Cinematography
Best VFX
best Editing
Best Adapted screenplay
Maybe Best sound effects editing

As for VFX , i could definately see The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button getting nominated for it. Best actor will be difficult. Brad Pitt for Button , Rourke for Wrestler and Langella for Frost Nixon and Brolin for W

 

[Movies205]

You think the Academy gives a rat's ass about relevancy or ratings?

Bwahahahaha!!!

Titanic and Lord of the Rings, N'UFF said

 

[Movies205]

Personally I find this all to be a bit silly since more than half of these films haven't been released yet, and what always happens is half of em aren't as good as proclaimed and then an unexpected Dark Horse comes up, blah blah... I'll just wait till the dust clears in January before I even talk about predictions

 

[WeaponXProject]

Apparently Angelina is going to steal the show with Changeling.
Best Actress: Angelina Jolie
Best actor: No one knows yet but I would think it would be in a movie that doesn't come out until a month b4 the Oscars. I doubt Leo will get nominated for Body of Lies with all its bad reviews but who knows...
Best Supporting Actor: Heath will be nominated and may get the win bc of the sympathy vote. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve it but the Oscars have a history of giving it to the late greats.
Best Screenplay: I think that should be the Wrestler from what I have read. Or Danny Boyle's looks like it is fantastic.
Best VFX: This is tough. The ones that should win, IMO, never do. I wanted Sunshine to win last year but oooohhh welll. Iron Man will be nominated and get some pushes bc of Stan Winston.

Best Director: Clint Eastwood or Baz Luhrman.

 

[Venomfan]

All I care if Heath Ledger wins Best Supporting Actor. That's long due for Heath.
.

just curious, aside from Brokeback what else did you think Heath did that was good enough for an oscar?

 

[The Senator]

I used to predict the Academy Awards when I was younger, but lately I haven't been doing so because the nominees and winners have been incredibly disappointing. I lost most of my respect for the Academy in 2005, when that travesty "Crash" won Best Picture and Reese Witherspoon won best actress over Felicity Huffman, who actually gave a PERFORMANCE and not a shoddy imitation. While I personally enjoyed "Brokeback Mountain," I would not have cared if it lost to "Good Night, and Good Luck" or "Munich." But "Crash?" Seriously? That was the most pompous piece of garbage to win Best Picture since "Dances With Wolves."

The Academy held my respect when it gave the Best Actor Oscar to Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance in "Capote" that year, then regained it when it gave Oscars to Martin Scorsese, Daniel Day Lewis, and the Coen Brothers.

 

[The Senator]

Anyway, rant aside, I do have some predictions for this year (which will most likely be proven false, but whatever):

Best Picture
Australia (this year's epic war movie)
Happy-Go-Lucky (this one appears to be the "indie comedy" of the year)
Milk (depends on whether Van Sant slaughters it or not)
The Road (seems too dark for the Academy, but we'll see)
Synecdoche, New York (might be a long shot, but it is a Kaufman film)

Best Actor
Frank Langella, Frost/ Nixon (most likely a shoo-in and probably the frontrunner right now)
Sean Penn, Milk (the only reason why he took the role was to get nominated again, so it would be a travesty for him to be overlooked)
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (comeback story of the year)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York (I've heard this is a very complex, compelling role)

Not sure who could fit the fifth slot, perhaps Benicio del Toro for Che or Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

Best Actress
Ann Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (I've heard she is amazing in this "de-glam" role, which the Academy seems to adore)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (star of the "indie comedy" of the year, apparently)
Meryl Streep, Doubt (when does she disappoint?)
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road (seems to be a frontrunner at the moment, from what I've read)

Possible fifth slots include Nicole Kidman for Australia and Angelina Jolie for Changeling.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (will be nominated, will win out of pity, no need to list other prospects)

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona (saw this one earlier this year, she should definitely be nominated, in my opinion)

Not sure who could fill the other four spots, but I haven't read much about notable supporting roles.

Best Director
John Hillcoat, The Road (even if the film isn't nominated for BP, it looks stylish enough that his direction won't go unnoticed)
Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky (seems overdue for a nod)
Baz Luhrman, Australia (some would say he's overdue for a nomination... some. Most likely this year's Tim Burton.)
Gus Van Sant, Milk (if the movie is good, I'm sure he'll be up for a nod)

Fifth slot: Well, I doubt Nolan will be nominated, so I'm not even considering him. Most likely David Fincher (Benjamin Button), Steven Soderberg (Che), Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche), and John Patrick Shanley (Doubt) will be competing for the fifth slot.

 

[Laderlappen]

My Oscar Predictions

BEST PICTURE
Australia
*The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Milk

BEST DIRECTOR
Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler)
*David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Baz Luhrmann (Australia)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)

BEST ACTOR
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Viggo Mortensen (The Road)
Sean Penn (Milk)
*Brad Pitt (Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
Nicole Kidman (Australia)
*Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr (Tropic Thunder)
James Franco (Milk)
*Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Doubt)
*Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Vera Farmiga (Nothing But the Truth)
Taraji P. Henson (Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

 

[scifiwolf]

Man, this year's race is a little hard to call at this point, IMO. One thing I'm not seeing a whole lot is The Soloist, which surprises me, given the amount that RDJ is respected (especially on these boards). The big one on all our minds, though, is The Dark Knight. I really do expect this one to be nominated. It may not win, but it sure as hell deserves the nomination.

 

[Apollo]

what about Quantum of solace! dammit! t:

and Australia looks terrible. and isn't that a Fox film?

 

[Hunter Rider]

I think it's to early to make full lists but the Academy loves a comeback so Rourke (The Wrestler) and RDJ (The Soloist) have good chances at noms and the Ledger story will probably assure him a nomination as well.

The Academy also love Clint so i expect 'Changeling' to fair well in the nominations for the big categories.

TDK will only get nominated for a major award if the Academy can't find 5 other options that are remotely credible IMO.

 

[Nirvana]

Ledger for Lead Actor?

 

[Hunter Rider]

He stands more chance of actually winning in the supporting category IMO.

 

[Nirvana]

I think if Ledger were to be nominated it would be incredibly stupid. First of all, there seems to be better choices for Lead Actor (Rourke, Langella, Pitt, Penn, DiCaprio) and if he were nominated as a Supporting Actor, he'd probably win. Not to mention the movie is about Batman, not the Joker.

 

[Octoberist]

Perhaps though, you are biased for him by your love of Batman. Was the Joker, while a very good performance, really one of the best of the year? I'm not too sure.

Bias aside..

After Tilda Swinton won for best supporting actress, it's all game now. And I'm a huge fan of the movie and Swinton; it was just that her performance was...okay. I mean, she won over Cate Blanchett.

SO yes, I think that Heath has crafted a role that..in a couple of years will be looked upon highly..dare I say it, ICONIC.

 

[Shifty]

Titanic and Lord of the Rings, N'UFF said

The Sixth Sense.

The Sixth Sense!?

Juno
Little Miss Sunshine
Moulin Rouge!
Forrest Gump

The Dark Knight will be slotted in one of the five.

 

[Warhammer]

Perhaps though, you are biased for him by your love of Batman. Was the Joker, while a very good performance, really one of the best of the year? I'm not too sure.

My feeling is legitimate. It is not about Batman or The Dark Knight, overall as a film. It is about Ledger's performance. So far this year, it is top 5 material for Best Supporting Actor.