The Real Deal Oscar Predictions

[flickchick85]

I loved Hershey in Black Swan, but come on, Leo deserved that spot far more than her, imo.

Otherwise, nice to see something a little different. Especially all the love for 127 Hours. I hate that it seems to be getting so lost in the mix as we near the home stretch of awards season. It's a great, great movie.

 

[DACrowe]

well Fincher brings the best out of actors.

can you imagine Fincher directing Noomi?

I wasn't knocking Mara. I hope she kills it. And if she does, I hope she is nominated. It is just kind of lame that the Academy is intentionally overlooking Noomi and will likely nominate the American version next year.

 

[hugekent]

Very strange that Leo didn't make it, especially with Steinfeld being placed in the correct position of Lead Actress. I had to cringe at Postlewaite's nomination as well. A very good performance but that's not why they nominated his is it?

 

[DACrowe]

For lack of a better place to put this interesting piece:

ARMOND WHITE CALLS EW AND VILLAGE VOICE CRITICS RACISTS, SMALL-MINDED OSCAR-OBSESSED
http://www.movieline.com/2011/01/ar...inment-weeklys-lisa-schwarzbaum-of-racism.php

This in response last week when White hosted the NYFCC awards and publicly insulted Black Swan, The Kids Are All Right, Blue Valentine and The Social Network--all winners of awards he disapproved of and mocked the presenters of and chided critics for picking--to the jeers of his peers and the put-off reactions of Darren Aronofsky and Michelle Williams.

Even if you don't like the movies (I personally am not a fan of TKARAR, but love the others), as host you'd think he'd have the least sense of propriety or class.

Anyway, the critics of those two publications wrote scathing reactions to his poor hosting and ruining the night by personifying the image of a self-centered, egotistical, bitter critic. He responded by calling them both racist, obsessed with Oscars and sucking up to movie stars, while also brainwashing their readers into being mindless consumers (to be fair some of EW can be called out on that last part, but not Ms. Schwarzbaum herself).

Overall, it was a calculated attack to call any who disagree with him racist and representative of the bourgeois snobbery.

What an asshat.

Enjoy the read.

 

[Figs]

Hahaha! Oh Armond...what will you do next?

 

[Doctor Jones]

I don't get why people complain about predictability about Oscars. if they are unpredictable, they're usually an upset and people complain about them anyway. All I care about it the most deserving nominee.

 

[lime]

Just watched Inception again on Blu Ray and still what a movie. It's still not as good as TDK (what movie without the Joker is) but Inception has to take most of the Tech oscars. Sure, I'm one of the guys who think The Social Network must take Adapted, Directing and Picture, but Inceptiom must take Cinematography, Editing, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, Art, Music and Visual Effects. And if it can take Original will be great but I doubt it. Still it must leave the Oscars with at least 5 or 6 awards.

But Oscar allways give more to the Best Picture than it deserves. TSN probably will take the Score and Editing.

 

[Drizzle]

Why does Armond White still have a job?

 

[HighFivingMF]

Why does Armond White still have a job?

Because people keep talking about him.

 

[Doctor Jones]

It's like moving in quick sand.

 

[jmc]

So I saw Black Swan, other than being one of the most gripping films of the year, (I was seriously sweating during the last 20 mins), Nat Portman must, I repeat must win the Oscar.

 

[kvz5]

"The King's Speech" just won the Producers Guild Awards! And just like that, The Social Network is not a sure Best Picture winner now. If another movie, say The Fighter takes the SAG Best Ensemble award, it's gonna be crazy!

 

[rashad]

The Social Network is definitely not a lock for BP.

 

[jmc]

Ooooooooo, game on now.

 

[Christopher Nolan]

The Social Network is definitely not a lock for BP.

it's either the social network or the kings speech. no other film will have a chance. fincher will score best director, so good chances for kings speech getting best picture...

 

[rashad]

it's either the social network or the kings speech. no other film will have a chance.

I never suggested any other film did.

 

[Paste Pot Pete]

Gah, I feel like such a minority on Social Network. I thought it was great, but I loved Black Swan, King's Speech, Inception, and The Fighter all so much more.

 

[Kud-Dukan]

Gah, I feel like such a minority on Social Network. I thought it was great, but I loved Black Swan, King's Speech, Inception, and The Fighter all so much more.

I'm with you on that. I'm glad to see The King's Speech get some love.

 

[Tron Bonne]

Yeah, the PGA award does actually make it race. I would still call the TSN the frontrunner, due to everything else it's taken, but the Oscars and PGA awards tend to go pretty hand in hand. And I guess TKS would be a more 'traditional' BP winner.

If TKS wins, it'll be the third year in a row a film's won BP that I didn't get to see in theaters due to it not being anywhere within a 3 hour drive of me. That doesn't really mean anything, obviously, but feels strange to me.

 

[DACrowe]

You see I liked TKS but it was my least favorite of the likely nominees, save for Winter's Bone. And besides, I can promise you people will be talking about TSN, Inception and Black Swan much longer than they will be talking about TKS. When is the last time you heard somebody talking about Slumdog Millionaire, Crash or Shakespeare in Love?

It just is not the best movie of the year.

 

[Tron Bonne]

I don't really think people talking about a film later necessarily makes it better. Way more people talk about Star Wars nowadays, but Annie Hall really was the better of the two of 1979. And Shakespeare in Love was a helluva lot better than Crash and Slumdog Millionaire, horrible categorizing. I'll never understand why that movie gets such a horrible rap. Well, I do kinda, but eh, still a great film that deserved everything it got.

 

[flickchick85]

You see I liked TKS but it was my least favorite of the likely nominees, save for Winter's Bone. And besides, I can promise you people will be talking about TSN, Inception and Black Swan much longer than they will be talking about TKS.

I agree. Actually, I loved The King's Speech...I just loved the others on a whole other level. I'd be perfectly happy if Black Swan, The Social Network, Inception or Toy Story 3 won Best Picture. But since it's clearly gonna come down to TSN or TKS, my vote goes to TSN.

My least favorites of the likely nominees are The Kids Are Alright and Winter's Bone (Jennifer Lawrence and John Hawkes were great, but the movie was pretty underwhelming, imo). I'm pretty sure I loved everything else that could possibly get nominated, haha, so I'm feeling pretty good about this year. t:

ETA: I also agree with Tron that Shakespeare In Love was a much better film than Slumdog or Crash.

 

[Paste Pot Pete]

No, The King's Speech was definitely not the best movie of the year, but the performances (like The Fighter) were enough to push it past Social Network for me.

Overall, I'm torn between Black Swan & Inception, neither of which have a chance in hell. I'm the type of viewer that holds innovation in film in the highest esteem; I kind of believe that whichever film pushed the medium forward deserves the title.

Oh, well. Looks like it's Fincher's year. He's had it coming. Arronofsky & Nolan will get theirs eventually, I hope.

 

[jmc]

I wouldn't call Fincher a lock anymore. I finally convinced myself a week ago that TSN was a sure thing for everything after weeks of telling myself the race was more open, now I don't know what to think.

 

[lime]

Tommorow at what time will the nominations be announced?