Recently, Bill Hunt over at
The Digital Bits caught a lot of flack over
a piece he wrote on the HD war, and why The Digital Bits was backing Blu-Ray as the format to beat.
Bills piece was a response to a post from
Harry Knowles over at
Aint It Cool News where Harry talked about picking up a HD DVD player, and why he had chosen that particular format. Bill decided to respond to the piece primarily because Harrys piece was full of erroneous information (I know, on Aint It Cool News? Surely I jest
). Harrys piece has since been edited somewhat, but is still far from correct. It is full of fear, uncertainty and doubt, and has several facts flat out wrong. Bills piece does a more than adequate job of pointing out the flaws in Harrys arguments, though, so I wont get into that here.
I found Bills piece thought-provoking, and very well researched. It is a very logically presented argument as to why Blu-Ray will ultimately prevail in the HD DVD/Blu-Ray format war. It also started me on a train of thought related to one of the specific reasons Bill feels Blu-Ray will win; studio support.
I thought itd be interesting to take some data from
Box Office Mojo related to the studios and which format(s) they support, and then amalgamate that data.
I took a look at the top 100 grossing films from
2005,
2006 and
2007 year-to-date, as well as the
top 100 films of all time and the
top 100 films of all time adjusted for inflation, and then mapped the studios that own them back to the format(s) they support.
For 2007, up to June 28th (I started doing the analysis on June 29th), the top 100 films have grossed a total of $3,693,457,524. Of that, 52.65% of the dollar value gross, or $1,944,471,566 is from studios exclusive to Blu-Ray. 10.07%, or $372,099,319 is exclusive to HD DVD, and 37.28% or $1,376,886,639 is dual-format. The remaining 1.18% ($43,400,114) has not chosen a side.
Of the top 100 2007 (YTD) films, 47 are from Blu-Ray exclusive studios, 14 are HD DVD exclusive studios, 29 are dual-format studios and 10 are not supporting either format currently.
Looking back at 2006, the top 100 films grossed a total of $7,868,951,746. Of that, 60.01%, or $4,722,185,762 was from Blu-Ray exclusive studios. 10.07%, or $792,188,570 was from HD DVD exclusive studios, and 29.92% ($2,354,577,414) was from dual-format studios.
Of the films, 53 were from Blu-Ray exclusive studios, 14 from HD DVD exclusive studios and 33 from dual-format studios. There were no films in the 2006 top 100 from studios that had not declared a format preference.
Going back to 2005, the top 100 films had total grosses of $7,688,897,916. 47.79% ($3,674,562,080) came from Blu-Ray backers, 11.73% ($901,950,973) came from HD DVD backers, and $3,112,384,863 came from dual-format backers. Again, no films in the top 100 came from studios that had not declared an HD preference.
Of the 2005 films, 47 came from Blu-Ray backing studios, 14 from HD DVD backing studios and 39 from dual-format studios.
OK, so when it comes to new releases, things are weighted pretty heavily toward Blu-Ray. Of the top 300 films released from January 1 2005 to present, 147 of them are from studios that are exclusively supporting Blu-Ray currently, and they represent 53.60% of the total grosses. Add in the numbers from the studios that currently support both formats, and you have 248 out of the top 300 films coming out at some point on Blu-Ray, and they represent 89.07% of the total theatrical grosses.
On the HD DVD front, only 42 films are exclusives to the format, representing 10.71% of the total grosses. Add in the dual-format studios, and HD DVD has 143 films, with 46.18% of the total grosses represented. This is the biggest hurdle HD DVD has to overcome, and given that the studios that are Blu-Ray exclusive are steadfastly so, I dont see how they can (Sony, Fox and Disney are the three biggest Blu-Ray exclusive backers. Sony because they have a vested interest in the technology, and Fox and Disney because they are proponents of heavy copy protection and Blu-Ray has an extra layer of protection (BD+) that HD DVD does not - none of these three studios has a compelling reason to support HD DVD).
New releases represent the overwhelming majority of home video sales, and this is why Universal has been so aggressive in getting newer movies out on HD DVD. This holiday season, however, things will shift even more in Blu-Rays favor as many of this summers biggest movies like Spider-Man 3, Pirates of the Caribbean 3 and Ratatouille hit Blu-Ray and not HD DVD. Of the summers big releases that will be on HD DVD, the vast majority will also be available on Blu-Ray. In fact, of the top 20 movies released year-to-date only two, Knocked Up and Evan Almighty, are HD DVD exclusives.
Still, catalog titles have been huge for DVD and have the potential to do so again for the HD formats. Looking at the top 100 films of all time, 44 are from Blu-Ray exclusive studios (46.68% of total gross), 12 are from HD DVD exclusive studios (12.12% of total gross) and 42 are from dual-format studios (41.2% of gross). The remaining 2 films are from studios that dont support either format yet (those two films, if youre interested, are The Passion of the Christ and My Big Fat Greek Wedding).
If we adjust the all-time 100 for inflation, the numbers skew even more in Blu-Rays favor, with 57 being Blu-Ray exclusive studios (59.27% of adjusted gross), 11 being HD DVD exclusive (12.24% of adjusted gross) and 30 supporting both (28.49% of adjusted gross). Again, there are two films from studios supporting neither format at this time (1.59% of adjusted gross) - this time, My Big Fat Greek Wedding drops out of the top 100 and is replaced by Duel In The Sun.
All of this seems irrelevant in light of the percentage of home video sales that Blu-Ray and HD DVD represent. A giant slice of a tiny pie is still a small piece of pie. If you stop and consider that standard definition DVD sales have leveled off, and are expected to decline this year, and that the movie studios are going to need to find new revenue streams to continue the growth of the home video market, it becomes obvious that the home video market needs a new DVD to carry it into the next generation. The HD formats are the best bet for that currently. Digital downloads are not ready for prime time (there are no standardized formats, and no standardized players, and the studios have not lined up behind any formats).
In the end, the reality is that no matter what numbers you look at, Blu-Ray has the advantage. Blu-Ray is outselling HD DVD, it has more studio support, it has more consumer electronics manufacturers support and the library of movies is rapidly overtaking HD DVD. Blu-Ray also has a deeper library of catalog titles to reach into.
It is time for Universal Studios, the Weinstein Company, Toshiba and the few other HD DVD hold outs to face facts and throw their support behind Blu-Ray. The sooner this format war ends, the sooner the general populace will be able to replace those dwindling DVD revenues with a new stream, and that means more HD content for all of us. Everyone wins
well, as long as you consider re-purchasing content you already own winning, but thats the price you pay for progress.
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