The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Discussion in 'Iron Man 3' started by Thread Manager, May 4, 2013.

  1. Silver Surfer

    Silver Surfer Power Cosmic

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    It could, it has Thor AND Loki. 2 Avengers characters.
     
    #76
  2. kedrell

    kedrell Fork&SpoonOperator

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    It's possible but I'm more of a mind with $800M WW. I give Thor2 about a 1 in 3 chance at a billion, which is better than any other film this year besides IM3 and Hobbit2.
     
    #77
  3. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    6 months ago people were saying that about Iron Man 3. Now it's set to clear $1.2, possibly $1.3 B.

    That said, I'm of the mind set that we will see Iron Man, Thor and Cap, roughly double their predecessors, putting Thor in the high 800 M range, and Cap in the mid-700 M range.
     
    #78
  4. Pfeiffer-Pfan

    Pfeiffer-Pfan Cool Rider

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    Fantastic. The movie definitely deserved this turn out.

    Two things no doubt got it here... some goodwill from The Avengers (It sure as heck wasn't Iron Man 2) and being the first movie to kickstart the summer.

    Let's see now how it holds up in the coming weeks.
     
    #79
  5. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    I think it could go up when the actual numbers come out Monday afternoon.
     
    #80
  6. redfirebird2008

    redfirebird2008 Well-Known Member

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    Very possible. Disney used a pretty conservative drop for Sunday. One thing to be cautious about is that today is Cinco de Mayo, which could hurt movie theater attendance across the board. Spider-Man, which had a phenomenal opening in 2002, had its first Sunday on Cinco de Mayo and dropped nearly 30% as a result. Disney might have that in mind, so they're playing it safe with today's estimate.
     
    #81
  7. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    I'm sticking to $750m for Thor and $530m for Cap.
     
    #82
  8. DyeLorean

    DyeLorean will return

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    Thor: The Dark World will benefit greatly from having both Thor and Loki together again.
     
    #83
  9. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    Same here, I see it doing about 750-800M at the very least and 900M at the max.

    But hey, if T:TDW can reach a billion more power to them, I'd love to see Thor up there with the big boys.
     
    #84
  10. Iceman

    Iceman Daffy Duck Vs The Joker

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    Was hoping for a better Sunday number.

    Edit: as above, yeah hopefully a conservative estimate.
     
    #85
  11. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    The Sunday number is fine.

    So this is basically a lock for $1.2b. It's almost guaranteed $450m DOM and $750m OS. It won't hit $1.3b but it will probably only be a couple million off from it.
     
    #86
  12. Liam_H

    Liam_H Well-Known Member

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    Disney certainly is being conservative with the estimate. They already know well enough it was going to be DH2 for 2nd all time. Under-reporting a bit will allow them to say it did even better on Monday.
     
    #87
  13. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    Those to me are worst possible scenarios for those movies at this point.
     
    #88
  14. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark Armored Avenger!

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    Whatever the fan controversy, the audience seems to be loving this film. The less than enthusiastic WOM on the last film was seen pretty quickly. Not to mention there was a $5M overestimate, which was pretty bad.

    You don't get that sense at all with this movie. I think there's a good chance of a less than 50% drop next weekend, but we'll have to check the actuals and the Monday numbers.
     
    #89
  15. Mr. Dent

    Mr. Dent Well-Known Member

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    Like I said before I think the twist is just one of those controversies that get people talking about the movie, not something that makes the movie bad.
     
    #90
  16. KangConquers

    KangConquers Purple Kang, Purple Kang

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    I for one, liked it. I feel like if Marvel Studios films have one flaw, it's that they're fairly linear in their plotting. Rarely does Marvel through a curveball.
     
    #91
  17. samsnee

    samsnee Well-Known Member

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    RDJ just guaranteed an even bigger paycheck for Avengers 2.
     
    #92
  18. I SEE SPIDEY

    I SEE SPIDEY Well-Known Member

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    The movie is a second sequel, it's not dropping less than 50% next weekend no matter what the word of mouth is. It's still going to be number one of course.
     
    #93
  19. jmc

    jmc away for a while

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    RDJ could write his own check from here on in.
     
    #94
  20. BigThor

    BigThor God of Thunder

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    That's not really a flaw in my opinion, of course they had to play it a bit safe in Phase 1.

    Judging from Iron Man 3 that will certainly not be the case with Phase 2 or Phase 3.
     
    #95
  21. TheVileOne

    TheVileOne Well-Known Member

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    Hopes this bodes well for Thor 2 and Cap 2.
     
    #96
  22. Bruce Malone

    Bruce Malone Well-Known Member

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    I've been wondering this for a bit as well. The avengers in some instances was marketed as kind of an "iron man 3" itself and iron man 3 has played as the avengers sequel box office wise at least.

    The first 2 cap and thor movies didn't really set the BO on fire so it'll be interesting to see if the avengers success is really mostly connected to Iron Man first and foremost? assuming those 2 sequels don't blow up as much.
     
    #97
  23. DarthSkywalker

    DarthSkywalker May the Force Be With You

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    175mil And I didn't even go see it this weekend (some last min family business got in the way). :D

    I expect TDW and TWS to get big bumps. But not this big. Even if they both double their first two they still won't be close. I think we are seeing which character/actor is "The Avenger" to the fans. Still I expect both TWS and TDW to both be much more profitable this time around and that means good things.
     
    #98
    Last edited: May 5, 2013
  24. T"Challa

    T"Challa Well-Known Member

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    By the time 2015 is over, its very possible that the top 3 opening weekends of all time will feature Iron Man. If someone had told me this 7 yrs ago, i'd have clubbed him over the head
     
    #99
  25. KDM1986

    KDM1986 Midnight Sons Founder

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    RDJ is gonna bank.
     
    #100

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