Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Silver Surfer]

It could, it has Thor AND Loki. 2 Avengers characters.

 

[kedrell]

It's possible but I'm more of a mind with $800M WW. I give Thor2 about a 1 in 3 chance at a billion, which is better than any other film this year besides IM3 and Hobbit2.

 

[KangConquers]

Somehow I seriously doubt Thor:TDW will bring 1 billion...

6 months ago people were saying that about Iron Man 3. Now it's set to clear $1.2, possibly $1.3 B.

That said, I'm of the mind set that we will see Iron Man, Thor and Cap, roughly double their predecessors, putting Thor in the high 800 M range, and Cap in the mid-700 M range.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Fantastic. The movie definitely deserved this turn out.

Two things no doubt got it here... some goodwill from The Avengers (It sure as heck wasn't Iron Man 2) and being the first movie to kickstart the summer.

Let's see now how it holds up in the coming weeks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think it could go up when the actual numbers come out Monday afternoon.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think it could go up when the actual numbers come out Monday afternoon.

Very possible. Disney used a pretty conservative drop for Sunday. One thing to be cautious about is that today is Cinco de Mayo, which could hurt movie theater attendance across the board. Spider-Man, which had a phenomenal opening in 2002, had its first Sunday on Cinco de Mayo and dropped nearly 30% as a result. Disney might have that in mind, so they're playing it safe with today's estimate.

 

[Mr. Dent]

6 months ago people were saying that about Iron Man 3. Now it's set to clear $1.2, possibly $1.3 B.

That said, I'm of the mind set that we will see Iron Man, Thor and Cap, roughly double their predecessors, putting Thor in the high 800 M range, and Cap in the mid-700 M range.

I'm sticking to $750m for Thor and $530m for Cap.

 

[DyeLorean]

Thor: The Dark World will benefit greatly from having both Thor and Loki together again.

 

[BigThor]

Somehow I seriously doubt Thor:TDW will bring 1 billion...

Same here, I see it doing about 750-800M at the very least and 900M at the max.

But hey, if T:TDW can reach a billion more power to them, I'd love to see Thor up there with the big boys.

 

[Iceman]

Was hoping for a better Sunday number.

Edit: as above, yeah hopefully a conservative estimate.

 

[Mr. Dent]

The Sunday number is fine.

So this is basically a lock for $1.2b. It's almost guaranteed $450m DOM and $750m OS. It won't hit $1.3b but it will probably only be a couple million off from it.

 

[Liam_H]

Disney certainly is being conservative with the estimate. They already know well enough it was going to be DH2 for 2nd all time. Under-reporting a bit will allow them to say it did even better on Monday.

 

[KangConquers]

I'm sticking to $750m for Thor and $530m for Cap.

Those to me are worst possible scenarios for those movies at this point.

 

[Tony Stark]

Whatever the fan controversy, the audience seems to be loving this film. The less than enthusiastic WOM on the last film was seen pretty quickly. Not to mention there was a $5M overestimate, which was pretty bad.

You don't get that sense at all with this movie. I think there's a good chance of a less than 50% drop next weekend, but we'll have to check the actuals and the Monday numbers.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Like I said before I think the twist is just one of those controversies that get people talking about the movie, not something that makes the movie bad.

 

[KangConquers]

Like I said before I think the twist is just one of those controversies that get people talking about the movie, not something that makes the movie bad.

I for one, liked it. I feel like if Marvel Studios films have one flaw, it's that they're fairly linear in their plotting. Rarely does Marvel through a curveball.

 

[samsnee]

RDJ just guaranteed an even bigger paycheck for Avengers 2.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The movie is a second sequel, it's not dropping less than 50% next weekend no matter what the word of mouth is. It's still going to be number one of course.

 

[jmc]

RDJ just guaranteed an even bigger paycheck for Avengers 2.

RDJ could write his own check from here on in.

 

[BigThor]

I for one, liked it. I feel like if Marvel Studios films have one flaw, it's that they're fairly linear in their plotting. Rarely does Marvel through a curveball.

That's not really a flaw in my opinion, of course they had to play it a bit safe in Phase 1.

Judging from Iron Man 3 that will certainly not be the case with Phase 2 or Phase 3.

 

[TheVileOne]

Hopes this bodes well for Thor 2 and Cap 2.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Hopes this bodes well for Thor 2 and Cap 2.

I've been wondering this for a bit as well. The avengers in some instances was marketed as kind of an "iron man 3" itself and iron man 3 has played as the avengers sequel box office wise at least.

The first 2 cap and thor movies didn't really set the BO on fire so it'll be interesting to see if the avengers success is really mostly connected to Iron Man first and foremost? assuming those 2 sequels don't blow up as much.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

175mil And I didn't even go see it this weekend (some last min family business got in the way).

I've been wondering this for a bit as well. The avengers in some instances was marketed as kind of an "iron man 3" itself and iron man 3 has played as the avengers sequel box office wise at least.

The first 2 cap and thor movies didn't really set the BO on fire so it'll be interesting to see if the avengers success is really mostly connected to Iron Man first and foremost? assuming those 2 sequels don't blow up as much.

I expect TDW and TWS to get big bumps. But not this big. Even if they both double their first two they still won't be close. I think we are seeing which character/actor is "The Avenger" to the fans. Still I expect both TWS and TDW to both be much more profitable this time around and that means good things.

 

[T"Challa]

By the time 2015 is over, its very possible that the top 3 opening weekends of all time will feature Iron Man. If someone had told me this 7 yrs ago, i'd have clubbed him over the head

 

[KDM1986]

RDJ is gonna bank.