Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mr. Dent]

I don't think they purposely waited 4 years. I'm pretty I read something about production being delayed for some reason (I don't remember).

 

[schiz0id]

They did because I got the trailer, it just depends if you were lucky enough. Just like not every screening got MOS trailer, which I didn't

I got both. Though they didn't show the Thor teaser in my theater.

 

[Xeno]

I also thought that waiting 4 years between the two movies was a huge mistake on Paramount's part, and now with IM3 having the second biggest opening of all time, I'm sure their execs are regretting about opening the Star Trek sequel a mere 2 weeks after IM3 as well.

Putting STD so close to Iron Man Three was a major mistake in light of the latter's performance, but it probably looked smart (somehow) to Paramount when they did it. May 2013 is so packed with big tentpole films that they really didn't have that much choice about their release date. They could have put STD later in the summer but it would have faced stiff competition in June or July, too.

 

[Liam_H]

Putting it two weeks after IM3 is no big deal, its right before Memorial Weekend. Some movie would've taken that spot if they didn't. Probably has more to worry about with Hangover 3 and F6 the week after.

 

[DyeLorean]

I have a question for everyone who lives in the US (the majority, of course). Why is this season so important for movies? You have summer holidays?

 

[venom892]

I think it's because most kids are out of school. There is also certain holidays that most people have off like July 4th, etc.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

I'm seeing it again in IMAX tomorrow...

lol i saw it twice in two days. i just don't see comic fans seeing this as many times as they saw the avengers.

 

[samsnee]

I have a question for everyone who lives in the US (the majority, of course). Why is this season so important for movies? You have summer holidays?

It's hot outside. People like being inside for 2 hours with air conditioning.

 

[psylockolussus]

LOL. no!

 

[psylockolussus]

Yeah Star Trek was shown at my theatre too.

Same here.

 

[IJN1941]

Domestic 400+，international 700+

 

[KangConquers]

Putting it two weeks after IM3 is no big deal, its right before Memorial Weekend. Some movie would've taken that spot if they didn't. Probably has more to worry about with Hangover 3 and F6 the week after.

This. The newer movie almost always hurts the older movie.

 

[Iceman]

$11,267,610 on Monday US.

 

[JKKS085]

$11,267,610 on Monday US.

-73,8% that's a huge drop, bigger than The Avengers and Iron Man 2, but along the lines of Iron Man (-73,4%).

 

[Eddie]

I have a question for everyone who lives in the US (the majority, of course). Why is this season so important for movies? You have summer holidays?

It's largely this, yes. Most kids start getting out of school around May and don't return until August/September. There are also a great deal of holidays in this time period as well. We've got Mother's Day, Memorial day (a long weekend for many), Father's Day, and Independence Day.

 

[Pickle-El]

-73,8% that's a huge drop, bigger than The Avengers and Iron Man 2, but along the lines of Iron Man (-73,4%).

The only ones you can compare to are huge Mar/Apr/May openings with kids still in school. Note, these are all drops from Sunday.

Avengers (-67%) 18.9 Million
IM2 (-70%) 9.3 Million
Hunger Games (69%) 10.8 Million
Alice In Wonderland (11.5%) 7.9 Million
Fast Five (1.2%) 6.1 Million

Looking at Avengers numbers, that really is incredible for a non-holiday Monday when school is in session. Those are Summer numbers.

Even with a multiplier like IM2 (2.4), you are looking at around 420 million domestic. (Barring any serious weekly drops). IM2 had a 59% drop week 2.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Yeah this is early May where kids, college students, etc are still in school. If IM3 came out in June or July this number would be $16m+. Avengers was really an outlier there. That said, this drop is similar to SM3, which had a multiplier of 2.23.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It's largely this, yes. Most kids start getting out of school around May and don't return until August/September. There are also a great deal of holidays in this time period as well. We've got Mother's Day, Memorial day (a long weekend for many), Father's Day, and Independence Day.

It is also when the citizens of the northeast and midwest come out of winter hibernation and start wanting to do stuff.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

so realistically, iron man 3 should eventually hit 1 billion i assume?

 

[Mr. Dent]

$1.1b is a lock.

 

[Xeno]

Over on the BO forums, it's estimated that IM3 will reach $930 million worldwide by Sunday. It will barrel past the $1 billion mark by the end of the next week. The Avengers is currently the fastest film to $1 billion, having taken only 19 days to reach that milestone. Iron Man Three won't equal that achievement but it won't be far off the pace, either.

 

[Liam_H]

TA shares that distinction with Avatar and DH2.

 

[schiz0id]

TA shares that distinction with Avatar and DH2.

What's DH2?

 

[ctsketch]

What's DH2?

HP: Deathly Hallows 2

 

[schiz0id]

HP: Deathly Hallows 2

Omg I keep thinking Die Hard 2! lol