Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tony Stark]

Over on the BO forums, it's estimated that IM3 will reach $930 million worldwide by Sunday. It will barrel past the $1 billion mark by the end of the next week. The Avengers is currently the fastest film to $1 billion, having taken only 19 days to reach that milestone. Iron Man Three won't equal that achievement but it won't be far off the pace, either.

Despite the protestation of some, I had no doubt of this film making a billion. In fact, I'm probably going to up my prediction for Thor, I think Thor had a definite shot at a billion, as I think with the 3D boost and the international appeal it will make more world wide than Catching Fire, although probably not domestically (assuming the reviews are good).

 

[Iceman]

I was always confident about the likes of Avatar and Avengers making over $1B but a non-team non-Superman/Batman/Spider-man film doing it is really impressive. Equally impressive (to me) is it getting over $400m domestic.

 

[schiz0id]

BoxOfficeGuru is forecasting an international gross for IM3 to be close $900m so HP8's worldwide record is about to crumble as well.

 

[Iceman]

$11,300,000 Tuesday estimate

Tomorrow (well today really) is $200m day!

 

[kaijunexus]

Taking my sister to see it again next Wednesday...so count another 22 dollars towards that total!

 

[Iceman]

I can't wait for the Avengers 2 Box Office thread. If this is killing it so easily worldwide that one is gonna be a complete steamroller in 2 years time.

 

[vailian48]

i will mention 2 things here, iron man 3 and avengers 2

ok, so, 1 billion is locked for iron man 3

as far as i can see, domestic can end up anywhere between 300+ through below 600
overseas would be 700+ through below 1 billion

any thoughts on that or no from anyone?


ok, now, avengers 2

what are the chances of it reaching 2 billion? i mean, iron man 3 alone will reach 1 billion+ and 700+ overseas, will it be able to get 1 billion+ just overseas? how about 700+ domestic?

the only two movies that i can see reaching 2 billion before 2016 are avengers 2 and avatar 2

 

[Mr. Dent]

i will mention 2 things here, iron man 3 and avengers 2

ok, so, 1 billion is locked for iron man 3

as far as i can see, domestic can end up anywhere between 300+ through below 600
overseas would be 700+ through below 1 billion

any thoughts on that or no from anyone?

Read a couple pages back.

ok, now, avengers 2

what are the chances of it reaching 2 billion? i mean, iron man 3 alone will reach 1 billion+ and 700+ overseas, will it be able to get 1 billion+ just overseas? how about 700+ domestic?

I'd say a good chance. I think it will do $700m domestic and $1.4b OS.

the only two movies that i can see reaching 2 billion before 2016 are avengers 2 and avatar 2

And Star Wars VII.

 

[redhawk23]

Read a couple pages back.


I'd say a good chance. I think it will do $700m domestic and $1.4b OS.


And Star Wars VII.

I doubt it.

 

[venom892]

Really? Star Wars was the global phenomenon before any other film.It's the return of the OT characters and Star Wars is one of those rare film franchises that gains more fans every year, that film is going to be massive.

 

[Repulsor Blast]

the old cast, a competent director, a competent writer, 10 years since RotS, 3d = a lot of money at the box office.

i do think would-be audience members will scrutinise reviews more closely than they would other movies though, given what happened with the prequels. so, assuming it reviews well, it could make 2 billion.

 

[psylockolussus]

the old cast, a competent director, a competent writer, 10 years since RotS, 3d = a lot of money at the box office.

i do think would-be audience members will scrutinise reviews more closely than they would other movies though, given what happened with the prequels. so, assuming it reviews well, it could make 2 billion.

I definitely think it could make 1 billion or even 1.5 billion.

But 2 billion? Maybe for Episode VIII or Episode IX, that could happen.

 

[J.Howlett]

Honestly, these numbers from summer movie films don't mean anything anymore. In possibly 20 days, Iron Man 3 could be at a billion dollars worldwide. I mean, what's the point of even doing box office reports anymore. It's insane to think that just 5 years ago, it took the Dark Knight it's entire theatrical run to make a billion dollars.

Now, a billion dollar worldwide box office is just another number. Soon, 2 billion will be just another number. I just don't think you can gauge the popularity of a film anymore with the international markets being the way that they are now.

This editorial puts it all into perspective for me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...on-blockbuster-and-why-it-should-remain-rare/

 

[Mr. Dent]

I doubt it.

I definitely think it could make 1 billion or even 1.5 billion.

But 2 billion? Maybe for Episode VIII or Episode IX, that could happen.

lol. Star Wars will make 2 billion, or at least come very close to it.

Honestly, these numbers from summer movie films don't mean anything anymore. In possibly 20 days, Iron Man 3 could be at a billion dollars worldwide. I mean, what's the point of even doing box office reports anymore. It's insane to think that just 5 years ago, it took the Dark Knight it's entire theatrical run to make a billion dollars.

Now, a billion dollar worldwide box office is just another number. Soon, 2 billion will be just another number. I just don't think you can gauge the popularity of a film anymore with the international markets being the way that they are now.

This editorial puts it all into perspective for me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...on-blockbuster-and-why-it-should-remain-rare/

Boohoo. None of it matters anyway. The real money comes from merchandising and home media sales. Still, suffice to say, when movies make $1.2-1.5b at the box office it's still pretty damn obvious they're extremely popular. They just happen to be more world renown now as well. I don't see why the rest of the world getting into this stuff should discount from the films' popularity. America isn't the only country that matters, not anymore anyway.

 

[fixxxer]

I don't see Star Wars: Episode VII hitting $2 billion. $1 billion is a lock... my guess would have it sitting at the $1.6 billion mark. I think people might be underestimating the fact that the miserable Prequel Trilogy is still very embedded in the public consciousness.

Now, assuming Episode VII is a high quality film, evocative of the Original Trilogy, I would say that $2 billion is a lock for Episode VIII, especially considering escalating ticket prices worldwide.

 

[Jon Hex]

I'd say a good chance. I think it will do $700m domestic and $1.4b OS.

So you expect Avengers 2 domestic numbers to increase but its foreign numbers to decrease??

 

[Jon Hex]

Honestly, these numbers from summer movie films don't mean anything anymore. In possibly 20 days, Iron Man 3 could be at a billion dollars worldwide. I mean, what's the point of even doing box office reports anymore. It's insane to think that just 5 years ago, it took the Dark Knight it's entire theatrical run to make a billion dollars.

Now, a billion dollar worldwide box office is just another number. Soon, 2 billion will be just another number. I just don't think you can gauge the popularity of a film anymore with the international markets being the way that they are now.

This editorial puts it all into perspective for me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...on-blockbuster-and-why-it-should-remain-rare/

Let's wait till a superman sequel makes a billion+ and then see if you still feel the same.

 

[Iceman]

i will mention 2 things here, iron man 3 and avengers 2

ok, so, 1 billion is locked for iron man 3

as far as i can see, domestic can end up anywhere between 300+ through below 600
overseas would be 700+ through below 1 billion

any thoughts on that or no from anyone?

Sure, but that's a very wide range. t:

ok, now, avengers 2

what are the chances of it reaching 2 billion? i mean, iron man 3 alone will reach 1 billion+ and 700+ overseas, will it be able to get 1 billion+ just overseas? how about 700+ domestic?

the only two movies that i can see reaching 2 billion before 2016 are avengers 2 and avatar 2

My opinion is yes I think Avengers 2 has a great chance of $2B from a massively increased overseas haul. It's all about explosive sequels there and this fits the bill perfectly. It takes a long time for awareness to build up but when it does the returns keep rising with little brand fatigue (unlike US).

And welcome to the Hype!

 

[Iceman]

Honestly, these numbers from summer movie films don't mean anything anymore. In possibly 20 days, Iron Man 3 could be at a billion dollars worldwide. I mean, what's the point of even doing box office reports anymore. It's insane to think that just 5 years ago, it took the Dark Knight it's entire theatrical run to make a billion dollars.

Now, a billion dollar worldwide box office is just another number. Soon, 2 billion will be just another number. I just don't think you can gauge the popularity of a film anymore with the international markets being the way that they are now.

This editorial puts it all into perspective for me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...on-blockbuster-and-why-it-should-remain-rare/

Nothing weird has happened. The international markets have started to open up as they were always expected to one day. If there are no major world events then in the long term global economic growth will continue and the international market will keep getting stronger and the US percentage of returns will continue to go down.

Don't really see any reason not to do box office reports in the same way, just need to take account of this factor. And you can guage the popularity of a film at least against films that came out in the same year (or just before) or by comparing just US returns.

Also more is better t:

 

[Mjölnir]

So you expect Avengers 2 domestic numbers to increase but its foreign numbers to decrease??

OS means overseas, so the worldwide number in his speculation would be $2.1 billion.

 

[Tony Stark]

I doubt it.

Um with inflation ROTS would be a billion, and the new one will be in 3D. The new Star Wars is a slam dunk 1B and may challenge Avatars records.

 

[Tony Stark]

Honestly, these numbers from summer movie films don't mean anything anymore. In possibly 20 days, Iron Man 3 could be at a billion dollars worldwide. I mean, what's the point of even doing box office reports anymore. It's insane to think that just 5 years ago, it took the Dark Knight it's entire theatrical run to make a billion dollars.

Now, a billion dollar worldwide box office is just another number. Soon, 2 billion will be just another number. I just don't think you can gauge the popularity of a film anymore with the international markets being the way that they are now.

This editorial puts it all into perspective for me.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...on-blockbuster-and-why-it-should-remain-rare/

That's what happens after you have a massive stock market crash and a sluggish economy. Our currency isn't worth jack any more.

 

[Jon Hex]

OS means overseas, so the worldwide number in his speculation would be $2.1 billion.

Yeah. Did not read that properly. Thought WW instead of OS. Would be amazing if/when that happens.

 

[Iceman]

Um with inflation ROTS would be a billion, and the new one will be in 3D. The new Star Wars is a slam dunk 1B and may challenge Avatars records.

Definitely for the new Starr Wars even if it's not great. If it's the next Empire then anything's possible!

 

[rashad]

Wednesday Numbers - IRON MAN 3 - $8.1M ($204M)