Iron Man 3 The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Pickle-El]

So the foreign grosses for IM3 are going to be not that far off from Avengers' total!

Avengers 2 is going to be a monster everywhere.

You can pretty much check off the billion dollar box on the next Avengers just from international right now.

How much more than that is the real question.

 

[Iceman]

You can pretty much check off the billion dollar box on the next Avengers just from international right now.

How much more than that is the real question.

I think it'll be crazy. $2B altogether..600m US 1.4B overseas.

 

[Pickle-El]

I think it'll be crazy. $2B altogether..600m US 1.4B overseas.

With expansion, I can see it hitting something close to those numbers.

 

[schiz0id]

So now that the dust is almost settling for IM3's box office receipts any predictions for Thor 2? Mine's $250m domestic and $450m overseas. That's my conservative estimate.

 

[kedrell]

Great! Is Disneyland as good/big as Disney World? I've only been to the Florida one.

It's comparable.

 

[kedrell]

Let's see....how'd my 2.3x multiplier prediction from a month ago do? Preeeeettty close. Might very well end up closer to 2.4.

Still looking like it'll come in below IM2's multiplier wich was near a 2.44X(actually a 2.438552X). Yeah, better received......my ass.

 

[Raiden]

You can pretty much check off the billion dollar box on the next Avengers just from international right now.

How much more than that is the real question.

Disney purchased Marvel for 4 billion dollars and Marvel Studios have already delivered two movies that grossed more than a billion apiece WW, with Avengers 2 coming in 2 years. I'd say it's money very well spent for the House of Mouse.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Disney purchased Marvel for 4 billion dollars and Marvel Studios have already delivered two movies that grossed more than a billion apiece WW, with Avengers 2 coming in 2 years. I'd say it's money very well spent for the House of Mouse.

Not to mention all the Marvel-related merchandise they've probably sold since then as well.

 

[Xeno]

Iron Man 3 is days away from reaching the $800 million milestone in overseas grosses, adding $9.9 million from 55 territories over the weekend to reach a $795.2 million overseas total. The film is the #5 highest grossing film of all time globally with a $1.18 billion cume after six weeks in release.

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2013-06-02-global-iron-man-3-keeps-growing-reaches-118-billion

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So now that the dust is almost settling for IM3's box office receipts any predictions for Thor 2? Mine's $250m domestic and $450m overseas. That's my conservative estimate.

I think that's a reasonable prediction and Marvel would be happy with those numbers.

But after IM3's performance, I'm greedy.

I want 800+ m WW.

 

[T"Challa]

If Thor does anything close to 800 mill with a November release, then the MCU becomes a fully fledged runaway train..right now, my prediction is 650-700 mill. Hope it does much more

 

[Tony Stark]

Still looking like it'll come in below IM2's multiplier wich was near a 2.44X(actually a 2.438552X). Yeah, better received......my ass.

This is a pretty silly post. The movie has been out a month and lost most of it's 3D screens this weekend with AE opening, and only this weekend is it making the same amount as IM2 did on the similar weekend, it had been running ahead.

There's way more competition this year than there was at this time last year. There's just too much stuff out now capturing people's attention. Last year at this time the only film other than Avengers that had any pull was Snow White which did OK (not great). Everything else was either a bomb or a major disappointment.

 

[kedrell]

This is a pretty silly post. The movie has been out a month and lost most of it's 3D screens this weekend with AE opening, and only this weekend is it making the same amount as IM2 did on the similar weekend, it had been running ahead.

There's way more competition this year than there was at this time last year. There's just too much stuff out now capturing people's attention. Last year at this time the only film other than Avengers that had any pull was Snow White which did OK (not great). Everything else was either a bomb or a major disappointment.

I wasn't comparing it to The Avengers. Nor was I saying it's not a bigger hit than IM2(obviously, it is). I was just comparing IM2's and IM3's multipliers and using that as a basis to debunk the completely asinine notion that IM2 was not well received. If IM2 has the better multiplier(which sure looks to be the case) I don't see how any other conclusion can be drawn.

 

[Spideysays]

I wasn't comparing it to The Avengers. Nor was I saying it's not a bigger hit than IM2(obviously, it is). I was just comparing IM2's and IM3's multipliers and using that as a basis to debunk the completely asinine notion that IM2 was not well received. If IM2 has the better multiplier(which sure looks to be the case) I don't see how any other conclusion can be drawn.

Exactly. People who love this movie act like its making money because its good. Its the Avengers after effect and that's the ONLY reason. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves. Your multiplier evidence is pretty clear in showing that if not for the Avengers, this movie would've been coming in lower than IM2 box office wise.

 

[Xeno]

This is a pretty silly post. The movie has been out a month and lost most of it's 3D screens this weekend with AE opening, and only this weekend is it making the same amount as IM2 did on the similar weekend, it had been running ahead.

There's way more competition this year than there was at this time last year. There's just too much stuff out now capturing people's attention. Last year at this time the only film other than Avengers that had any pull was Snow White which did OK (not great). Everything else was either a bomb or a major disappointment.

Please stop using logic. It just confuses people.

 

[Mr. Dent]

Exactly. People who love this movie act like its making money because its good. Its the Avengers after effect and that's the ONLY reason. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves. Your multiplier evidence is pretty clear in showing that if not for the Avengers, this movie would've been coming in lower than IM2 box office wise.

A movie doesn't make $1.2b without people going back multiple times for repeat viewings. Please stop. As much as ou accuse people who like the movie as praising it too much you're doing the exact opposite. Just because YOU don't like the movie doesn't mean it wasn't well received. 78% on RT, 62 on Metcritic, B Theatre grade. That IS a well received movie no matter how much you want to force your own opinion onto the general public. And don't accuse me of being a fanboy because I didn't even like the movie that much myself.

As for the multiplier, TS already explained that and both you and kedrell just decided to ignore it I guess.

 

[thalidomide]

People still come here to bring this movie down?

 

[schiz0id]

Exactly. People who love this movie act like its making money because its good. Its the Avengers after effect and that's the ONLY reason. Anyone thinking otherwise is kidding themselves. Your multiplier evidence is pretty clear in showing that if not for the Avengers, this movie would've been coming in lower than IM2 box office wise.

The so called "Avengers after effect" can only go so much, if that was the "ONLY" reason, as you point out, the domestic numbers should've been more front-loaded and IM3 should have dropped like a stone every week but it held on with good word of mouth which means the movie is playing like a well received summer movie. It's about to cross $400m domestic and you think it owes it all to "Avengers after effect"? Don't kid yourself, give the film its due because from where I see it it stands by its own merit.

 

[schiz0id]

People still come here to bring this movie down?

Apparently $1.18bn is not enough for the troglodytes LOL

 

[T"Challa]

So what number do you think this movie will eventually settle at. Avengers made 85 mill more domestically after its fourth weekend. IM2 made about 30 mill more, IM1 made 55 mill more. I'm going to say this makes about 42 million more and ends up #10 all time domestically and #5 all time worldwide

 

[Iceman]

I think that's a reasonable prediction and Marvel would be happy with those numbers.

But after IM3's performance, I'm greedy.

I want 800+ m WW.

That's my target!

 

[kedrell]

FTR, I am not saying IM3 wasn't well received. Of course it was. What I'm disputing is that it was better received than IM2. As far as I can see, they're pretty much the same(IM3 is slightly better off on RT whilst IM2 gets the better multiplier....more or less it evens out between them) but don't tell that to the insipid IM2 haters.

 

[kedrell]

So what number do you think this movie will eventually settle at. Avengers made 85 mill more domestically after its fourth weekend. IM2 made about 30 mill more, IM1 made 55 mill more. I'm going to say this makes about 42 million more and ends up #10 all time domestically and #5 all time worldwide

Given that it's multiplier will end up slightly lower than IM2's, I'd guess $25M more.

 

[Ironfan72]

People still come here to bring this movie down?

I know, apparently if you like the movie there is something wrong with you, so many jaded people, been on this site when it was just spider-man hype and as each movie does better, there are more and more who want to bring it down or belittle the people who like it. There are plenty of comic movies I did not like, never once did I get on their message boards and belittle it or bring it down or the people who liked it.
Was the movie perfect, no, as a life long Iron Man fanatic I get the dislike for the twist, I do, but guess I am in the minority as I liked the twist, have seen it now 3 times.
People are welcome to their opinions, it is a forum, just I feel like I have to defend myself or justify liking it over a few minute section of the movie where a villain everyone wanted turned out not to be what they built it up to be.

 

[Raiden]

Apparently $1.18bn is not enough for the troglodytes LOL

If IM3 didn't make over 1B WW, those people would've said that it is because the movie is terrible. But since it did cross the billion dollar mark those people are now giving all the credits to the "Avengers After Effect", and not the movie itself. Haters gonna hate, I guess.