That's why I said "probably" and not "definitely". I think F4 has more chances compared to the other two, but it's going to heavily depend on the quality of the film and the rest of the characters that are going to be featured. I agree, however, it doesn't have the IP recognition some think it has in general audience, and the previous attempts surely must have damaged the brand up to some extent.
Deadpool, Spider-Man and The Avengers are the only ones I see as guaranteed hits and even they have to be a bit careful with their budgets.
A third Black Panther and Doctor Strange movie should be fine as well, especially they were very successful just 1 to 2 years ago. But like you said they need to be careful with the budgeting. A trilogy should at least be the end game or goal for those two ips.
I want Marvel Studios to have this line up for 2026 to 2028.
2026: Avengers (May), Spider-Man (Jul or Dec), Shang-Chi (Sep)
2027: Dr. Strange (Feb), Avengers (May), Black Panther (Nov)
2028: X-Men (May), Fantastic 4.2 (Jul or Dec)
I have 3 film movies for 2026/27 simply because the gap between the sequels are getting longer and those sequels should be released asap especially Shang-Chi. Then 2028 onwards, they could focus on releasing two movies and release a new Avengers movie every 3 years again after The Multiverse Saga.
If Avengers 5 is delayed to 2027 which I think is possible, then:
2026: Shang-Chi (May), Spider-Man (Jul or Dec)
2027: Dr. Strange (Feb), Avengers (May), Black Panther (Nov 2027 or Feb 2028)
2028: Avengers (May), Fantastic 4.2 (Jul or Dec)
2029: X-Men (May)
No Blade (I'll save it until the Mcu is super strong). No Armor Wars. No sequel to Thunderbolts*, Brave New World, Ant-Man 3 and Thor 4. I would love to see another Captain Marvel film and even Eternals 2, if its possible but there's already too many just for 2026 to 2028.
I also think they shouldn't launch the new X-Men in the same year as an Avengers movie. I'll save the new X-Men when the Multiverse Saga is already over.