The next Xbox

[Benstamania]

In the end I don't care. As long as they don't skyrocket prices to ******ed levels (I'm still holding that against you Sony..) then if they release in 2013... so be it.

I just won't be getting every console. No problem.

 

[Soapy]

Then we won't get word of any new console at E3 '12. I'd be willing to bet that new consoles won't be here until the very end of 2013... or early 2014.

Well, the WiiU is coming out in 2012, so your 2013/2014 theory is patently false.

And I previously didn't buy into the new Xbox coming out in 2012 rumors, but I've put some more thought into it, and whether Microsoft acts on it or not, 2012 would be a very juicy opportunity for them, and they're not likely to get a better launch window than fall 2012.

 

[Benstamania]

I don't count the WiiU as "next gen". No way do I believe the next Xbox comes out in 2012... No way. I don't want them to rush out the door and have another Red Ring issue on their hands.

 

[Soapy]

I didn't say they were going to release it in 2012, I just said it would be an excellent time to do so. Look at it like this:

The Wii "brand" is pretty soft. Wii sales have been on a very clear decline the last couple of years, while the Xbox "brand" is stronger right now than it's ever been. Last week was actually the 360's best week of sales ever at 970,000 units. Some would point to this as evidence that Microsoft isn't going to want to release a new console anytime soon, but I see it more like Microsoft needs to strike while the iron is red hot.

So the Wii is down, and despite whatever your personal feelings on the Wii U might be, I feel like it's going to be a hard sell to enthusiasts because it's essentially Nintendo playing catch up with the current consoles rather than a truly next gen machine, and I think it's also going to be a much harder sell to the general public than the Wii was.

And Playstation isn't even a factor since Sony has by far the least to gain from putting out a new console.

In summary, by releasing a new console next year Microsoft has the opportunity to:

• Capitalize on their newfound momentum and mainstream appeal.

• Shoot the Wii U in the foot and damper any momentum it might have gained by making it look old and unappealing next to an actual next gen console.

• Get a year or maybe even two year head start on Sony.

You have to admit, they aren't likely to find a better time to release a new console than that.

And look, I'm not anxious to drop $400 on a new console either, but I must remind you guys as I always do, you don't have to buy it. I know I certainly don't intend to run out and buy one the moment they're available. No one is going to take your 360 or whatever away from you or put a gun to your head and march you into a store and force you to buy a new console.

 

[Benstamania]

No, but as a gamer one kind of wants to have the newest console, no? I have no problem getting the new console... I just think there's enough life left in our current models to sustain them for a few more years yet.

 

[Soapy]

I agree! They do have more life in them, but that doesn't have to come at the cost new consoles. Look at the PS2. It got a lot of support and notable releases after the current generation began.

 

[Benstamania]

Yeah, true... However I, for some reason, don't see Microsoft continuing to throw support behind the 360 once their new console (that better be named the 720 just because!) hits. I fear that they'd shut down Xbox Live... or make it a Silver like system to make way for the new version.

Maybe for a year or two... but not for many years later like Sony did.

 

[Soapy]

It's certainly a tricky tightrope to walk. If you outright kill your console like with Microsoft did with the fist Xbox, then your customers just get pissed off, and rightfully so. That was a very aggressive anti-consumer stunt they pulled. Which was only amplified by the almost complete lack of backwards compatibility on 360.

But on the other hand, if you really, genuinely support your older thing, then you end up with a situation like Sony was in where no one was making the jump onto their next console.

It's definitely a precarious problem they have to deal with.

 

[Lord]

There's a lack of backward compatibility for 360?
I tought games like Halo 2 and Red Dead Revolver would work on X-Box 360

 

[Soapy]

They've added backwards compatibility support for a lot of games over the 360's lifespan, but when it first launched, and for a long time afterwards, Halo and Halo 2 were the only original Xbox games you could play on 360.

Edit: Does anyone remember a couple years ago when Microsoft was talking about how their next system would be "forward compatible"? I wonder if that's something they're still looking into.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Get a year or maybe even two year head start on Sony.

Third party publishers aren't going to tolerate that at all.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

They did that with the 360 though.

 

[hippie_hunter]

They did that with the 360 though.

The Xbox 360 only had a year's head start with the PlayStation 3 and arrived at a time when video game development had no yet gotten to the absurdly expensive money sucker that they are today. The industry had changed dramatically in the five years since the 360 has released. The early Xbox 360 games were also padded with ports of PC games, sports titles, licensed titles, and a much stronger Microsoft Studios than the one we have today.

Third party publishers just aren't willing to do exclusives anymore, with today's market, it's far too limiting for them to make money and they have a responsibility to their investors to make as much money as possible. So the chances of another Ridge Racer 6 or Dead or Alive are almost zilch. They aren't willing to develop for an expensive PlayStation 3/Wii U version of a game while developing a separate version for the next Xbox that will potentially be even more expensive to develop for.

I also think that unlike Sony or Nintendo who benefit from having large first party studios and can pad their launch windows with games from critically acclaimed series, Microsoft has let themselves become a tad bit far too dependent on third party publishers. A crappy launch lineup with bad first party games and mediocre third party titles can really hurt a system (just look at the PlayStation 3), especially when the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii U are considered extremely viable.

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's obvious that DVD is beyond maxed out as a game format now but will microsoft switch to blu-ray? I think the fact that sony is one of the owners of blu-ray maked ms hesitant to do so but what other choice does it have?

 

[hippie_hunter]

It's obvious that DVD is beyond maxed out as a game format now but will microsoft switch to blu-ray? I think the fact that sony is one of the owners of blu-ray maked ms hesitant to do so but what other choice does it have?

I don't think that they'll switch to blu-ray, but I do think that Microsoft will do what Nintendo does and make their own proprietary media format so they can avoid paying royalties to the BDA while dealing with the issue of data space within an optical disk. Nintendo developed a new disc that is comparable to blu-ray for the Wii U, I'd be very surprised if Microsoft didn't do the same.

With Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, Zune Marketplace, and DVD playback, it's not like Microsoft needs blu-ray to be a central entertainment hub in the living room.

 

[Soapy]

Blu-ray is enough of a thing now that they really need to support it. It would probably only be for one generation anyway. Microsoft is just going to have to suck it up.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Blu-ray is enough of a thing now that they really need to support it. It would probably only be for one generation anyway. Microsoft is just going to have to suck it up.

But why support blu-ray when Microsoft can just develop their own proprietary optical disc format the way Nintendo does (thus avoiding having to pay royalties and support the competition along with solving the problem concerning data storage in discs) and have 3rd party content providers like Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, along with their own Zune Marketplace provide HD video content?

Nintendo gets away with not having support for DVD and blu-ray, why can't Microsoft? Hell, going with their own format will also allow Microsoft to avoid paying royalties to the DVD Forum.

 

[WolfCypher]

The Xbox 360 only had a year's head start with the PlayStation 3 and arrived at a time when video game development had no yet gotten to the absurdly expensive money sucker that they are today. The industry had changed dramatically in the five years since the 360 has released. The early Xbox 360 games were also padded with ports of PC games, sports titles, licensed titles, and a much stronger Microsoft Studios than the one we have today.

Third party publishers just aren't willing to do exclusives anymore, with today's market, it's far too limiting for them to make money and they have a responsibility to their investors to make as much money as possible. So the chances of another Ridge Racer 6 or Dead or Alive are almost zilch. They aren't willing to develop for an expensive PlayStation 3/Wii U version of a game while developing a separate version for the next Xbox that will potentially be even more expensive to develop for.

I also think that unlike Sony or Nintendo who benefit from having large first party studios and can pad their launch windows with games from critically acclaimed series, Microsoft has let themselves become a tad bit far too dependent on third party publishers. A crappy launch lineup with bad first party games and mediocre third party titles can really hurt a system (just look at the PlayStation 3), especially when the PlayStation 3, Xbox 360, and Wii U are considered extremely viable.

I couldn't help but but post after reading that last paragraph. I agree that Microsoft is severely lacking in the 1st party franchises. I think of Halo, Gears, Fables, and Project Gotham before I start drawing blanks. The core reason why I never bothered with a 360 was because every game I wanted on the 360 were 3rd parties also available on the technically superior PS3. Their 1st parties aren't games I'd play and without branching out into other genres (Wii-esque Kinect titles DON'T COUNT) I did not find anything exclusive on the 360 worth making me buy one. I can't say I'm excited for the next Xbox when I fear that either they will try to push out new properties only for them to fail or be abandoned (like the Xbox experienced) or for them to not even bother.

 

[Iceman]

The original XBox was killed because it wasn't very successful (obviously still not a cool thing to do to your customer base). No way in hell the 360 is suffering a similar fate.

 

[Soapy]

But why support blu-ray when Microsoft can just develop their own proprietary optical disc format the way Nintendo does (thus avoiding having to pay royalties and support the competition along with solving the problem concerning data storage in discs) and have 3rd party content providers like Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, along with their own Zune Marketplace provide HD video content?

Nintendo gets away with not having support for DVD and blu-ray, why can't Microsoft? Hell, going with their own format will also allow Microsoft to avoid paying royalties to the DVD Forum.

For the reason I said. Blu-ray is big enough now, that not including it would be a mistake. They're still not quite as ubiquitous as DVDs, but they are now (and have been for a while) pretty mainstream, and no longer just an expensive niche thing for videophiles.

Also, it's going to be a some years yet before streaming and digital distribution get to where they need to be before Microsoft (or Sony) could realistically consider completely dumping DVD and Blu-ray support.

It's one of these things where they have to decide that it's worth taking a small hit to their bottom line to keep their customers happy and make sure they "tick all the boxes" so to speak. It isn't asking a lot and it really wouldn't be that big a deal. It's not like they would be writing a huge check and delivering it straight to Kaz Hirai's pocket or something.

And Nintendo gets away with it (though I'm not sure they do entirely) because they make video game consoles. Microsoft and Sony, though Microsoft especially, have both repeatedly and very publicly declared it their mission to create all-in-one "entertainment boxes", and not supporting very popular media formats would kind of go against that.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Considering how fast digital distribution is evolving and the deals Microsoft is developing, I don't think that blu-ray is needed for something to be an all-in-one hub. The Xbox 360 is starting to act as a cable box for Verizon, AT&T, and Comcast, bringing ESPN3, UFC, (and NFL Sunday Ticket is most likely inevitable) onto the console for sports, Netflix, YouTube, Hulu, and the Zune Marketplace being able to handle the video needs, last.fm for music, etc. Music, video games, television, and movies, it's all there without the need for blu-ray here and now.

Now, I'm not denying the relevance of blu-ray. I'm a huge blu-ray supporter. I love blu-ray. And I have a large blu-ray collection. But when you take into account that Microsoft has everything it needs, I just don't see them needing blu-ray considering how fast everything is evolving and how the Xbox is constantly updating itself to be at the forefront of content delivery.

 

[Iceman]

I have a separate blu-ray player now but the PS3 including one & the 360 not would have made me buy a PS3 over a 360, if I didn't already have both. The HD format war was completely unnecessary and a big waste of investment.

Also from articles last month it looks like Microsoft are intending to invest more in new AAA exclusives for next gen. I hate exclusives in general but I guess they need to now that Sony are building so many good 1st party franchises. I really hope Sony, Microsoft & Nintendo focus less on software exclusives (that in my opinion reduce overall revenue for the industry & consumer satisfaction) & more on hardware innovation.

 

[Iceman]

I didn't say they were going to release it in 2012, I just said it would be an excellent time to do so. Look at it like this:

The Wii "brand" is pretty soft. Wii sales have been on a very clear decline the last couple of years, while the Xbox "brand" is stronger right now than it's ever been. Last week was actually the 360's best week of sales ever at 970,000 units. Some would point to this as evidence that Microsoft isn't going to want to release a new console anytime soon, but I see it more like Microsoft needs to strike while the iron is red hot.

So the Wii is down, and despite whatever your personal feelings on the Wii U might be, I feel like it's going to be a hard sell to enthusiasts because it's essentially Nintendo playing catch up with the current consoles rather than a truly next gen machine, and I think it's also going to be a much harder sell to the general public than the Wii was.

And Playstation isn't even a factor since Sony has by far the least to gain from putting out a new console.

In summary, by releasing a new console next year Microsoft has the opportunity to:

• Capitalize on their newfound momentum and mainstream appeal.

• Shoot the Wii U in the foot and damper any momentum it might have gained by making it look old and unappealing next to an actual next gen console.

• Get a year or maybe even two year head start on Sony.

You have to admit, they aren't likely to find a better time to release a new console than that.

And look, I'm not anxious to drop $400 on a new console either, but I must remind you guys as I always do, you don't have to buy it. I know I certainly don't intend to run out and buy one the moment they're available. No one is going to take your 360 or whatever away from you or put a gun to your head and march you into a store and force you to buy a new console.

Yes likelihood aside, I think releasing this early would certainly have a lot of positives going for it. I'm sure Sony want to release late if they can get away with it as they are really getting somewhere now with PS3. Microsoft have already had their success and that headstart could prove important once again and this time they have an old gen console worth keeping alive concurrently. I don't know how it works but would XBOX live likely be cross platform across 360 & 720..ie could you talk to your friends on the old console while playing on the new? Any early Microsoft release and I feel the wii-U is in big trouble, particularly with the Kinect2-focused dual release.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I have a separate blu-ray player now but the PS3 including one & the 360 not would have made me buy a PS3 over a 360, if I didn't already have both. The HD format war was completely unnecessary and a big waste of investment.

Also from articles last month it looks like Microsoft are intending to invest more in new AAA exclusives for next gen. I hate exclusives in general but I guess they need to now that Sony are building so many good 1st party franchises. I really hope Sony, Microsoft & Nintendo focus less on software exclusives (that in my opinion reduce overall revenue for the industry & consumer satisfaction) & more on hardware innovation.

Microsoft needs to invest in AAA titles for their next console if they release early. Third party publishers are not going to want to invest heavily into it when the PS3 and Wii U still have plenty of life within them and Microsoft is going to have to pick up the slack.

Also, I would say that the Wii U tablet is pretty damn innovative.

 

[Soapy]

I'm not saying it isn't a cool idea, but I don't see what's so innovative about it.