First Avenger The Official Captain America Box Office Thread!

[Wally West]

Obviously the cast isn't in place yet and we have limited information about the film at this point, so it's difficult to speculate how well the film might preform at the box office.

Having said that however, I can't help but wonder how successful a Captain America film will be outside the U.S

I would say that one thing the film has going for it in terms of world wide accessibility is that it's a period piece set mostly in WWII. At that point in history America was reluctant to enter into wars overseas, and did not enter the war until after the bombing of pearl harbor. I think it is considerably easier to portray America as a country who was in the right at that time, and that much of the world would probably agree.

Alot has changed over the years and America is certainly not the most popular country in many parts of the world today. So I would assume CA is not nearly as popular in many countries as other superheros.

When you consider that most american blockbusters count on the foriegn box office take for a considerable portion of the films overall gross, how much concern do you think there is that the film may not preform well outside of the U.S.?

 

[Wally West]

Sorry about this...I've double posted before, I've never managed to produce duplicate threads. Sorry.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Definitely under 200 million I'd say. Whatever the domestic is I expect 2/3's of that give or take a few million.

 

[Webhead2006]

yea hard to judge were it is going when we are months away from first unit filming, a cast signed and ready to go. Now if they end up getting someone like a brad pitt as the leading man that could make over seas bo go up more. But i agree it will probably end being maybe like 200-300+million domestically and somewhere in 100-180million over seas.

 

[KangConquers]

250 million stateside, 100 million overseas.

 

[Matt]

Hey guys, I know we're a year out but box office debate is always fun and its never too late to start discussing so with the lead in place, and the villain about to be signed, we are starting to get some idea of what this could be shaping up for, so what are your thoughts?

I'm a bit nervous about Evans. He's not really had a hit since Fantastic Four and is hardly a house hold name. He's not exactly the type of guy you sell a movie on. Of course, Weaving could counter-act that.

Also there is the question of whether or not foreign countries will want to see Captain America. America is not the most popular place on earth. Could our negative conception hurt Cap?

My main concern, is Transformers 2 which comes out a couple weeks before Cap. The general public has spoken, and they like Michael Bay's Transformer movies, no ifs, and, or buts about it. Plus if you factor in the market being oversaturated by Marvel movies (Thor comes out two months before Cap, Iron Man 2 a little over a year before) we could have the makings of a disaster. Of course, its still early...but there are some bad signs. What are your thoughts? Lets discuss Captain America's box office!

 

[topdog1]

Nah, I'm more worried about Thor than I am about Cap.

Cap will hit big enough. The story and the climate will be perfect for success come next summer. Staying away from the July 4th buzzsaw was always a good idea even though the character begs for that release date.

I'm saying it will hit north of Wolverine's worldwide total but less than Iron Man. Around $400 to $450 Million Worldwide.

Harry Potter is always a factor but his audience is built in. If you've seen the other films, you'll see this one. If not, you won't. Cap has no real threat after it opens. It can run through August without a new major threat at this point. Thor has that giant Pirates road block two weeks after it opens.

 

[Evan Drew]

I think with the Invader angle (if rumors are true), they will try to off-set the over seas issues with the film. I imagine nationalizing them to specific countries. Captain Britain to ..hmmm...Britain. Perhaps Toro for Spain. Namor could be for Atlantis. They must have huge IMAX down there!

$300+ for USA similiar to the first Iron Man with $200 or so for over seas. That seems realistic. If JJ pulls it off though, I could see this going higher than IM due in large part to the previous IM movies and if Thor is a hit.

 

[Matt]

I say at best 400 ww. What's the early budget report on this film though? Will 400 be enough or will it be a bomb like Superman Returns due to the fact that its budget was too high for its own good?

 

[flickchick85]

Well, obviously the quality of the movie will dictate this to some extent, but assuming it's decent, I'd expect it to be a modest success (for a blockbuster). It'll probably have a more limited appeal than Iron Man, but it won't feel as much like a re-tread like TIH. I'm guessing it'll do better than TIH domestically, but roughly the same overseas, so I'd imagine its total will be somewhere in between TIH and Iron Man. My estimate: $300-360 million worldwide, and around $165-220 million domestically.

As for Transformers, those movies don't have extremely long legs at the box office. They make their big bucks in the 1st two weeks. The last one fell to 3rd place in its 3rd weekend, and the #1 that weekend, Bruno, only opened with $30 million. This movie will open 3 weeks after Transformers, and will be a MUCH bigger draw than Bruno (at least 3x bigger, I'd imagine). Especially if it's PG-13 (a given) and relatively family-friendly.

ETA: Regarding the budget, I heard it was lower than other Marvel movies (didn't we hear Marvel was keeping the purse strings uber-tight on this one?), so I think anything over $285 million worldwide would be considered a success.

Also, I agree that Thor is a bigger concern. I honestly don't expect that movie to be much of a box office success, even if I do think it may end up being the better movie overall. If Clash of the Titans is a hit, I could see that spurring interest in the subject matter a little bit (I know they're different Gods/worlds, but there are similarities...), but barring that, I think that movie's gonna need to rely on word-of-mouth for its success a lot more than Captain America will.

 

[knowsbleed]

In all honesty, I don't have much faith in a Joe Johnston movie starring Evans. It has the makings of another FF. If it weren't for Marvel overseeing their Avengers franchise... I would have zero faith in this movie. Marvel looking over this movie is one of the only things that I see as a positive. I predict 225 at most.

 

[JP]

I don't see any reason to be nervous for Thor. Thor has THE golden release date. It'll be fine. Cap is more of a concern.
But, what I've noticed in the past is that when the movie is good, and I mean so good that all the reviews are glowing, a great buzz generates on its own, and people really respond to that buzz.

 

[Chewy]

I'm far more concerned about Cap than Thor. Thor has the best release date, and banking on its big name supporting cast and what should hopefully be a great marketing campaign, it'll be a hit.

Cap, on the other hand, opens the week after the final Harry Potter film.

 

[Deaths Head II]

I'm worried about both this and Thor. Thor because it's different from the usual super hero film and Cap because it's about a hero representing a country not very popular in the world right now.

 

[TikkiEXX]

dont know why people insist on being so negative about this flick when all we have is a vague synopsis of the plot and a lead actor. unless you have a crystal ball i think its almost impossible at the moment to speculate about the movies success or failure. reign it in a bit folks. seems like people are almost wanting this movie to fail. we know next to nothing at the moment. i at least need to see a trailer or some set pics or something.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'm not worried about it's box office take at this point. Xformers is irrelevant, especially if Marvel markets it appropriately.

However, I'm not going to project numbers just yet. I'm going to wait until I see something concrete like...I dunno...some costume imagery, some stills, some footage, Marvel's marketing plans vs. the other studios, etc.

I think this thread may be a bit premature but...okay. LOL

 

[Webhead2006]

for me domestic total figures i would say will probably be like 200-300million. which i hope it will be and hopefully will have good legs to last awhile and be a money maker. as for international figures i would say probably 100-200million. So if we get like 300mill domestically plus at least 200million internationally we would have like a 500million total world wide figures which would be a good amount for the film i say.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I think Cap will make Iron Man numbers.

*Everyone gasps!*

Remember before Iron Man came out, Iron Man was known but not really that recognizable. Cap's name is more popular than Iron Man's was at the time the film was being made. Plus, July has shown it is a strong time for movies lately. Even ones in competition with one another. HP and TF3 may effect Cap, but Cap comes later. If the movie is good, the legs will make up for the loss in opening weekend BO. I still see Cap opening very strong.

As far as WW box office goes, as long as it looks not America rocks you all suck, it will not be ignored WW. It is a Marvel movie, and Marvel's brand name has grown. In fact, the controversy over him being Captain America will give it more publicity, and possibly make the BO returns STRONGER.

I see it equalling IM round about

 

[Matt]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

 

[ThePompousPuma]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

Wouldn't surprise me? I think this movie will do very well in the states. Overseas is a whole other monster.
I agree that if the movie is well received by critics that it would help this movie immensely.
I just want this movie and character to be taken seriosly ala Dark Knight. If this happens it can have the staying power through August and beyond. Good luck Joseph!

 

[Matt]

I wouldn't count on it from Joe Johnston.

 

[Webhead2006]

you have some good point spider-fan

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

It's all in the execution. I think the upcoming Iron Man film may do a lot for 21st Century perceptions of male superhero duos and how they can interact in a non-campy, masculine way.

Personally, I don't even want Bucky in this film. His whole name screams "teh gaye".













































"Bucky"....

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I remember people saying that Star Trek wasn't going to succeed for a myriad of reasons and they were proven wrong.

It was going to fail because people wouldn't accept the unknown teenbopper cast

It was going to fail because it came out a week before Wolverine

It was going to fail because Star Trek isn't popular anymore

I'm not saying that Captain America can't fail because it obviously can. Hell, I'm not expecting huge numbers from it but Captain America's challenges aren't anymore daunting than Star Trek's.

To stay on the Star Trek point; Trek didn't exactly kill at the international boxoffice compared to other blockbusters (It was the highest grossing Trek overseas though and I think that the sequel will benefit from the good will)

Am I expecting Captain America to put up Spider-Man numbers overseas? Hell no but I could see it putting up Hulk numbers.

The fact is with the acception of the Spider-Man movies every comicbook film has underpreformed at the international boxoffice. None of these movies (including the Spider-Man flicks) are putting up Pirates of the Carribean 2 and 3 or Harry Potter numbers overseas. And no I didn't forget about TDK. It was a huge hit overseas but it somehow made 80mil less than it's domestic numbers, it should have atleast matched that 533mil...it should have atleast outgrossed Spider-Man 3.

Comicbook flicks in general aren't as popular overseas as they are in the states. Hell, Iron Man suffered the exact same fate as TDK and didn't match it's domestic gross overseas.

 

[Webhead2006]

i see nothing wrong with bucky at all. they could easily just make bucky a regular solider who is friends with cap, and just have the nickname bucky but majority of the time he goes by his full name or his last name, as soliders usually do.