Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[Iceman]

Crazy what the China potential is nowadays compared to when the MCU launched.

 

[InCali]

Crazy what the China potential is nowadays compared to when the MCU launched.

Yeah....not only China (though it's the biggest), the whole overseas market has grown by leaps and bounds. China has definitely led the way. The smaller countries also add up to real $$$.

 

[Jordanstine]

Still can't believe Ant-Man made more than Batman V Superman in China.

 

[third3ye]

Still can't believe Ant-Man made more than Batman V Superman in China.

Them Chinese sure like the flavor of the week!

 

[HKpowerup]

Word of mouth on Civil War is going to be insane, and with Spider Man in the last trailer and TV spots, I'm calling it now. it's going make more in domestic opening weekend than first Avengers & Jurassic World. But less than Force Awakens. I say approx 210m for opening weekend.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So far overseas, I've read that it's performing under AOU and more like IM3-ish... is it the Capt America title perhaps?

It's a mixed bag right now. Some Asian territories have been just slightly below AoU (but mostly much better than IM3), while Latin America looks to be outperforming AoU. Europe is kind of a mixed bag but all are close. Since these are in US dollars, CW is almost surely selling more tickets than AoU in most territories.

I agree that the WOM and thus the legs are going to be fantastic. At this point, I can't really see a probable scenario in which CW doesn't cross $1B overseas. The China numbers next week are going to be huge.

 

[InCali]

Still can't believe Ant-Man made more than Batman V Superman in China.

People don't mind paying to see good movies and Ant-Man was that. Still, I hear ya....it's weird Ant-Man v "BvS". Ant-Man? Really?

 

[Iceman]

Yeah....not only China (though it's the biggest), the whole overseas market has grown by leaps and bounds. China has definitely led the way. The smaller countries also add up to real $$$.

True.

Word of mouth on Civil War is going to be insane, and with Spider Man in the last trailer and TV spots, I'm calling it now. it's going make more in domestic opening weekend than first Avengers & Jurassic World. But less than Force Awakens. I say approx 210m for opening weekend.

The word of mouth will really help a lot for the 2nd weekend. Can see that being over $100m.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm gonna say $225M DOW.

 

[InCali]

I'm gonna say $225M DOW.

That's crazy man!!! Not you (necessarily ), but the number. When I hear stuff like that, I can't help but say "nahhhhhh". Anything even close to 200M OW is PHENOMENAL. 180M is shredding.....

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Now, Box Office Pro is calling for a $213M DOW: http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-independence-day-resurgence-free-state-jones/

 

[Jordanstine]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-independence-day-resurgence-free-state-jones/

BoxOffice.com now predicting $213 million opening weekend and $605 million overall domestic cume.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Crazy what the China potential is nowadays compared to when the MCU launched.

Doesn't hurt that they're building IMAX theaters like there's no tomorrow.

http://www.ibtimes.com/imax-force-c...nds-competing-screens-are-coming-soon-2360855

 

[InCali]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-independence-day-resurgence-free-state-jones/

BoxOffice.com now predicting $213 million opening weekend and $605 million overall domestic cume.

That's just Good, but

These estimates just keep going up. It kind of reminds me of when GotG was released. You could really feel the momentum building the week before it opened.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-independence-day-resurgence-free-state-jones/

BoxOffice.com now predicting $213 million opening weekend and $605 million overall domestic cume.

Wow. If it hits that domestic, it would only (only! lol) need $800 million OS to top AoU. Very doable.

 

[JOE]

The estimates are going up, what was the highest they got for BvS? I remember seeing around 175M but that was it. The WOM killed its legs, and this seems to have a very positive WOM. Lets hope its legs can hold up. 600M DOM would be OUTSTANDING. I don't think it'll have that kind of power, but even 500 would be groundbreaking. AOU didn't even touch that.

 

[Jordanstine]

P.S.
These are just forecasts... BO.com once forecasted that AOU, not accounting the Mayweather/Pacquaio fight, would open to $220m but it ended up only doing $191m.

The good sign though, is that all the forecasts have been going up each week, so that's a good sign the actual numbers are trending up.

 

[Jordanstine]

The estimates are going up, what was the highest they got for BvS? I remember seeing around 175M but that was it. The WOM killed its legs, and this seems to have a very positive WOM. Lets hope its legs can hold up. 600M DOM would be OUTSTANDING. I don't think it'll have that kind of power, but even 500 would be groundbreaking. AOU didn't even touch that.

Their BvS forecast was $154m:

http://stats.boxoffice.com/featured...an-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2

Actual was $166m.

 

[JOE]

Their BvS forecast was $154m:

http://stats.boxoffice.com/featured...an-dawn-of-justice-my-big-fat-greek-wedding-2

Actual was $166m.

Maybe 175 was quoted from a different site, cool though, thanks! Lets hope they under predicted again haha.

 

[third3ye]

$600m DOM cume is huge If CW plays out like AoU in the OS territories and lands somewhere around $900m, that'll give us a $1.5b WWBO, between TA and AoU. Doesn't seem too unreasonable, and has a really good chance of topping TA's gross.

 

[Iceman]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/long-range-forecast-independence-day-resurgence-free-state-jones/

BoxOffice.com now predicting $213 million opening weekend and $605 million overall domestic cume.

Doesn't hurt that they're building IMAX theaters like there's no tomorrow.

http://www.ibtimes.com/imax-force-c...nds-competing-screens-are-coming-soon-2360855

Lovely!! Thanks for that. The future is looking very good for any series that can impress in China.

 

[ernesth100]

The estimations never end up right. They usually either over estimate it or under estimate it.

 

[Mysteryman]

That's just Good, but

These estimates just keep going up. It kind of reminds me of when GotG was released. You could really feel the momentum building the week before it opened.

Weren't there some estimates that said that AOU was going to make 220 million?
EDIT:I see that Jordanstine beat me to it.
with corrections it takes too long to write these things!

 

[FunkMiller]

I'm going for 200 OW, total domestic 550, total WW 1.3, because why the hell not?

 

[third3ye]

The estimations never end up right. They usually either over estimate it or under estimate it.