Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[Joeyjojo72]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

 

[InCali]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

I think the MCU brand is starting to sink in and people can differentiate between MCU and non-MCU movies. I think Spidey is a pretty big deal and I also think the extraordinarily strong reviews are going to give it a big push. It's still only gotten that one bad review and is at about 60 reviews total. I'd go and see it pretty much no matter what, but I'm not the GA. People pay attention to reviews and the WOM seems to be sky high. I think the OW BO is on a definite upswing. I think it easily does AoU numbers and if it really does crack 190M OW, who knows what follows?

 

[spiderman2]

WW I am going to say it does between 1.6 and 1.8 billion.

 

[Doctor Octopus]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

Agreed. Everyone know this is Mcu not Sony.

 

[Filmfan93]

Agreed. Everyone know this is Mcu not Sony.

You have no idea how many people (mostly general audience) still don't know that there is MS, Fox, Sony, etc.

 

[Nicko-Ray]

You have no idea how many people (mostly general audience) still don't know that there is MS, Fox, Sony, etc.

True that.

 

[Filmfan93]

And it is worse when I have to explain to a friend of mine (who is pumped for Civil War) all about Thanos, the Infinity Stones and everything that was set up in the previous 11 films. He still hasn't watched some of them and he will go to see Civil War without doing so. IMO, it is OK to go without strictly having seen all of them, but somehow it isn't the same. It is like going to see characters that you haven't been invested in for 8 years, like most of us have done. The magic just won't be the same for him.

 

[Chesterfield]

After seeing the awesomeness of this movie, this movie will clear 1.2 billion at least!

 

[Knight_SV]

It will pass 1 billion

 

[Spiderdevil]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

Well because they haven't been advertising him enought, a sneak peak in the final trailer and a glimpse in a couple of TV spots, that's all!

No posters, no featurettes, no interviews, none. Even the team posters revealed don't have Spidey, I mean, Warmachine, Barton and Vision are in those, and I am sure Spidey's role is equivalent to their's

 

[Spiderdevil]

It will pass 1 billion

The sky is blue

 

[InCali]

You have no idea how many people (mostly general audience) still don't know that there is MS, Fox, Sony, etc.

Oh for sure there are people out there who think "Marvel is Marvel is Marvel. It says it right before the movie starts." I was probably a little bit sloppy with my wording after I said I think the MCU brand it starting to sink in. More and more people are (I think) becoming aware of the diff between MCU and Fox. The FFINO fiasco, for example, heightened awareness; not to the extent that everyone just knows Marvel didn't put it out, but it was so bad that it raised the issue outside of our little group.

If the GA lumped FFINO in with CA:CW, the latter's BO #s would stink. That's obviously not going to happen and I like the comment that CW's BO will look more like Avengers BO than CA BO #s. I think that's spot on.

In fact, I think the MCU brand is strong enough that they could resurrect FF if they had the property. We'd have to wait a few years, but I firmly believe they could do it. I think even if Fox DID put out a good FF, that the ship has already sailed for them.

 

[JOE]

Any updated tracking numbers for the DOM OW?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com: $200 million OW appears to be a lock.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/twitter-futures-captain-america-regains-lead-2/

 

[CaptainWagner]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

Honestly, that's a good point. Introducing Spidey here is a big boost, because they get to raise confidence in the character back up BEFORE his next solo film.

 

[FunkMiller]

I think people are underestimating the Spidey factor here because they are overestimating the negative effect of his last two movies.

The word of mouth on Spidey will be tremendous. He's the stand-out of the movie.

 

[InCali]

Boxoffice.com: $200 million OW appears to be a lock.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/twitter-futures-captain-america-regains-lead-2/

Wow. A month ago, I don't think I would have thought that possible. I had this pegged around 1.4M (Why is it that there always seems to be an empty spot where there's no place to vote?), but thought I was shooting a shade high. Now, I'm thinking I'm way too low. Yet another feather in my cap for being completely clueless when it comes to BO #s.

 

[Iceman]

Boxoffice.com: $200 million OW appears to be a lock.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/twitter-futures-captain-america-regains-lead-2/

Let the momentum keep building on this monster!

 

[Mysteryman]

What does Box Office Mojo predict for CW?

 

[Jordanstine]

So far overseas, I've read that it's performing under AOU and more like IM3-ish... is it the Capt America title perhaps?

 

[WilliamK99]

So far overseas, I've read that it's performing under AOU and more like IM3-ish... is it the Capt America title perhaps?

Too early to tell, not all territories have reported yet.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Yeah there's no way to compare them at this point because we don't have all the data. Within a week we should have a clearer picture.

 

[take3]

Box Office: 'Captain America: Civil War' Hits $38.7 Million Overseas in Two Days

Disney and Marvel Studios' Captain America: Civil War has earned a super $38.7 million to date as it rolled out in an additional 15 foreign markets Thursday to take the total number opened to date to 30 territories.

The superhero film opened No. 1 in all markets, pacing on par with Avengers: Age of Ultron, and could amass $200 million or more by Sunday, days before it launches in North America on May 6.


The movie is rolling out in roughly 63 percent of the foreign marketplace this weekend.
In Brazil ($2.7 million), the film had the No. 2 opening day of all time, only behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It also had strong showings in Germany ($1.9 million) and Australia ($2.3 million).

 

[TalismanRing]

http://deadline.com/2016/04/captain...ice-opening-international-results-1201746587/

After debuting in 15 overseas markets on Wednesday, Disney/Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War added another 15 on Thursday. The total to date is now $38.7M. While Wednesday’s suite of launches was concentrated in Europe and Asia, Thursday saw Latin America enter the picture.

There are No. 1s in all 30 territories as Civil War paces on par with Avengers: Age Of Ultron in the same grouping. Ultron is Marvel’s biggest international film ever at a total $946M ($893M at current exchange rates) and also the highest-grossing superhero movie ever in offshore play. With Team Cap and Team Iron Man in the mix, Cap 3 continues to play overseas more like an Avengers extension than a solo superhero threequel.


Korea continues to lead the Cap pack after debuting on Wednesday. The total there is $7.7M. * France has leapt to $3.7M after two days. Its start on Wednesday was the biggest of any movie in 2016.

In new plays, Brazil scored the No. 2 industry opening of all time, behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The $2.7M Thursday haul there is 31% ahead of Ultron. That’s especially notable given that some of the markets that bowed on Wednesday saw slightly lower comparisons to that Avengers picture.

Australia opened 3% above Ultron with $2.3M while Germany was 1% behind that film with $1.9M. Elsewhere, Chile and Central America scored the No. 3 industry opening day of all-time, and the Netherlands gave Steve Rogers & crew the biggest superhero movie launch ever.

* After Friday CW is up to $12.6m in Korea with its Friday almost matching AOU in terms of admissions even though it opened a day earlier on Wed. On pace to do at least $26-27m over the 5 days

 

[JOE]

Really anxious to see China's numbers roll in.

Age of Ultron: 240M
Ant-Man: 105M
Guardians of the Galaxy:96M
The Winter Soldier: 115M
Thor 2: 55M
Iron Man3: 121M
The Avengers: 86M
Captain America: ?
Thor: ?
Iron Man 2: 8M
The Incredible Hulk: 9M
Iron Man: 15M