The winning ticket for the GOP in 2016?

[hippie_hunter]

I doubt the next generation of Republicans are much more tolerant and less Christian.

They are definitely going to dig their heels in to oppose the pro-gay, anti-Christian liberal agenda as they get older. Those who don't will be pushed to the fringes of the party.

Polls have consistently shown that a very solid majority of Republicans under 30 are in support of same-sex marriage, legalization of marijuana, and while they tend to lean pro-life, they're not as strict about it as older pro-lifers. Younger Republicans have a tendency to not to prioritize social issues the way older and evangelical Republicans have.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Polls have consistently shown that a very solid majority of Republicans under 30 are in support of same-sex marriage, legalization of marijuana, and while they tend to lean pro-life, they're not as strict about it as older pro-lifers. Younger Republicans have a tendency to not to prioritize social issues the way older and evangelical Republicans have.

Doesn't that shift back to conservative as people get older?

Once people raise their own kids they become less open-minded and liberal.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I wish the GOP would focus on the Jewish vote. Jews can swing NY ( 1.8 million Jews live in the state ), or Florida, and are closely aligned with the GOP on many topics, including Israel.

I'm going to put it this way: Jews tend to lean Democratic for a reason.

As a whole, the Jewish demographic is not aligned with the GOP on just about anything. On the environment, economics, social issues, and welfare, American Jews tend to be one of the most progressive blocs in the country. They're the epitome of what American Progressivism is: pro-business, but left leaning on just about everything else.

And by "including Israel," American Jews are not blindly pro-Israel the way the GOP likes to paint them as. Only a third of American Jews feel an attachment of Israel because guess what: they're Americans, not Israelis. The majority of American Jews do not support Israeli settlements, they support Obama's Israel policies, do not see the Israeli government as a reliable peace partner, etc. The Jews you're thinking of are hardcore Orthodox Jews, who are a very clear minority among America's Jewish population.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Doesn't that shift back to conservative as people get older?

Once people raise their own kids they become less open-minded and liberal.

To an extent, but it's absurd to think that people who currently support issues like gay marriage will just suddenly oppose it when they get older. While they get more "conservative" (I would say more pragmatic as opposed to being idealist), the core root of their beliefs will still remain.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Also the Christian Right is always going to have more power in the Republican Party than those who socially liberal.

Or at least for the foreseeable future.

 

[SV Fan]

Younger Republicans have a tendency to not to prioritize social issues the way older and evangelical Republicans have.

I am guessing a majority of Republicans can care less one way or another about social issues, it's just their is a large enough base of social conservatives the republican party feels like it has to pander to.

It will be interesting to see what happens once the Republican party decides that pandering to the social conservatives isn't a winning strategy anymore and they completely drop them. I wonder if we will get a 3rd party popping up that will try scoop up that 10-15% of voters(it sort of will be 1968(or maybe more like 1948 building up to 1968) all over again but this time with the Southern Republican candidate instead of a Dixiecrat)

 

[NYR94]

Walker/Rubio or Ferina (sp)? If Jeb, Huckabee, Christie or any of the other RINO's out there are the nominee, I will stay home and not vote. This country needs REAL change and it begins with NEW blood.

 

[SV Fan]

Walker/Rubio or Ferina (sp)? If Jeb, Huckabee, Christie or any of the other RINO's out there are the nominee, I will stay home and not vote. This country needs REAL change and it begins with NEW blood.

You do realize the same people who will fund Jeb or Christie's campaigns will give that money to Walker or Rubio and probably expect the exact same things to happen for that money. If you want change you are better off voting Rand Paul because at least unlike the ones you mentioned he seemed to piss off some people higher up in the party

 

[NYR94]

Rand, like Cruz, is a bit too far right for my tastes. I agree that the money earmarked for Bush would eventually be funneled to Rubio or Walker if either got the nomination, but I have to believe that both of these guys would choose to honor their integrity and constituants rather than the lobbyists who are attemtping to buy them off. If we can't maintain that sliver of hope, it's game over for America.

 

[CaptainWagner]

Rand, like Cruz, is a bit too far right for my tastes. I agree that the money earmarked for Bush would eventually be funneled to Rubio or Walker if either got the nomination, but I have to believe that both of these guys would choose to honor their integrity and constituants rather than the lobbyists who are attemtping to buy them off. If we can't maintain that sliver of hope, it's game over for America.

Unfortuantly, Rubio doesn't have a good track record of sticking up to the establishment, after they bullied him into dropping his immigration reform. The GOP has to realize that they need to permit change if they want to win. Their base isn't going to jump ship if they let Rubio bring back his immigration fans. They'll simply be adding millions of new Hispanic voters to their bloc. But for some reason or another, they just can't see that.

 

[SV Fan]

Unfortuantly, Rubio doesn't have a good track record of sticking up to the establishment, after they bullied him into dropping his immigration reform.

Actually the base got Rubio to vote against his own bill when it comes to immigration, the establishment is pro immigration

 

[Taarna]

I'm going to put it this way: Jews tend to lean Democratic for a reason.

As a whole, the Jewish demographic is not aligned with the GOP on just about anything. On the environment, economics, social issues, and welfare, American Jews tend to be one of the most progressive blocs in the country. They're the epitome of what American Progressivism is: pro-business, but left leaning on just about everything else.

And by "including Israel," American Jews are not blindly pro-Israel the way the GOP likes to paint them as. Only a third of American Jews feel an attachment of Israel because guess what: they're Americans, not Israelis. The majority of American Jews do not support Israeli settlements, they support Obama's Israel policies, do not see the Israeli government as a reliable peace partner, etc. The Jews you're thinking of are hardcore Orthodox Jews, who are a very clear minority among America's Jewish population.

What you wrote was 100% correct 8 years ago and was a view typically shared by the older Jewish population. I know a few Jewish people and Obama rubbed them the wrong way.

The younger Jews post college do not see it the same way their parents did. I'm not saying the Jews will abandon the democratic party. I am saying a greater percentage of them will be voting Republican.

IF the Republicans offer a path to power for Jews in the state of New York of Florida, you could see a significant shift.

 

[SV Fan]

What you wrote was 100% correct 8 years ago and was a view typically shared by the older Jewish population. I know a few Jewish people and Obama rubbed them the wrong way.

The younger Jews post college do not see it the same way their parents did. I'm not saying the Jews will abandon the democratic party. I am saying a greater percentage of them will be voting Republican.

IF the Republicans offer a path to power for Jews in the state of New York of Florida, you could see a significant shift.

My prediction if and when Hillary wins the Jewish vote goes back up over 70%.

I don't think the Jewish vote makes much difference in NY(Dems have a big enough lead that they could lose that vote and still win), but it's huge in Florida

All that being said look at both sides. Democrats have 35 Jewish Congress people, while the Republicans only have 1(a first term Congressman in NY, who is in a swing seat and might lose in 2016). The only other Jewish member in the Republican party(Cantor) was primaried and his position in the party was replaced by a guy who went to KKK ralies to get support like 13 years ago(now that is terrible optics)

 

[herakles]

IF Hilary does get the Dem nod then the GOP candidate should counter with Condi Rice! Condi would eat up anyone in a debate!

 

[Batman jr.]

IF Hilary does get the Dem nod then the GOP candidate should counter with Condi Rice! Condi would eat up anyone in a debate!

Nah, bring back Mitt Romney.

 

[hippie_hunter]

What you wrote was 100% correct 8 years ago and was a view typically shared by the older Jewish population. I know a few Jewish people and Obama rubbed them the wrong way.

Obama has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. But Jews haven't politically shifted in a way that has made them go from progressive to conservative.

Also, personal experience is also a horrible tool to use to try and prove a political point. People's personal experiences often work to confirm their own personal biases because people tend to associate with people they lean politically with and a lot of times their personal experiences go against what is actually happening. If I went by personal experience, Barack Obama would have lost New York state by massive margin.

The younger Jews post college do not see it the same way their parents did. I'm not saying the Jews will abandon the democratic party. I am saying a greater percentage of them will be voting Republican.

The shifts we've seen of the Jewish demographic from Democratic to Republican have been small and insignificant. It's not like the major shifts we've been seeing like Hispanics becoming more Democratic and whites becoming more Republican.

IF the Republicans offer a path to power for Jews in the state of New York of Florida, you could see a significant shift.

1. Republicans already control Florida.

2. The path for Republicans in New York is not with the Jewish vote, but the suburban white vote. Monroe County, Erie County, Westchester County, and Onondaga County in Upstate New York along with Nassau County and Suffolk County in Long Island. Winning the suburbs in those counties is enough to counter Rochester, Buffalo, Yonkers, and Syracuse and winning the Long Island suburbs along with GOP advantages in rural Upstate New York would be enough to counter New York City. But of course the GOP these days just loves to alienate the suburban voters.

3. Offering demographics token positions of power don't mean anything. It's all about ideology. The Jewish demographic is overall a progressive demographic. It's almost the same problem (though nowhere near as extreme) the GOP has with the black demographic, a demographic that is borderline democratic socialist is not going to hit it on with a conservative party.

4. Family ties to a political party take generations to tear down dude. Only now after decades worth of developing under Nixon has the GOP destroyed the Democratic Party in the South. Obama sped things up a bit, but it still took a while for the GOP to win the South beyond just Presidential elections. To think that Jews will just suddenly leave the Democratic Party just because of Barack Obama (a President that they still mostly agree with ideologically), is absurd.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Nah, bring back Mitt Romney.

Romney was actually a rather decent debater. He killed it in the first debate. The third debate was a draw IMO with an Obama who was more engaged. And Romney lost the second debate because Candy Crowley is one of the biggest Obama dick riders ever.

 

[BatmanVSuperman]

Romney was actually a rather decent debater. He killed it in the first debate. The third debate was a draw IMO with an Obama who was more engaged. And Romney lost the second debate because Candy Crowley is one of the biggest Obama dick riders ever.

I don't think Romney was ever fully comfortable using the Benghazi ammunition. Too many pundits were saying, "Why isn't he using Benghazi???" blah blah and then he fell a bit flat in addition to Candy's blunder.

 

[chaseter]

Romney was actually a rather decent debater. He killed it in the first debate. The third debate was a draw IMO with an Obama who was more engaged. And Romney lost the second debate because Candy Crowley is one of the biggest Obama dick riders ever.

Agree. Crowley let her bias shine and it caused Romney to lose that debate.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I don't think Romney was ever fully comfortable using the Benghazi ammunition. Too many pundits were saying, "Why isn't he using Benghazi???" blah blah and then he fell a bit flat in addition to Candy's blunder.

I agree with you on Romney's comfort level on Benghazi on top of how all of the facts weren't there yet, but it still doesn't excuse Crowley's behavior in that debate.

 

[SV Fan]

Agree. Crowley let her bias shine and it caused Romney to lose that debate.

So the fact he made an outright lie(which basically was a right wing media talking point that was complete BS) wasn't reason enough for him to lose?

 

[Taarna]

Obama has rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. But Jews haven't politically shifted in a way that has made them go from progressive to conservative.

Hippie,

In 2008 Obama won 78% of the Jewish vote. Four years later in 2012 he only won 69%. That is a 9% drop among a hard core Democratic group in just 4 years.

If the Election was in 2015, I say it could be below 60%. As stated the elderly Jewish vote won't change much, but the younger voters will.

In all recent elections Democrats who won the white house won had at least 69% of the Jewish vote, and Obama in 2012 was the guy who had 69%

I think the Jewish vote can flip Florida red, and if it ever becomes close to 50/50 the state of New York is in play.

https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html

 

[SV Fan]

I think the Jewish vote can flip Florida red, and if it ever becomes close to 50/50 the state of New York is in play.

There is 1.7M Jews in NY, Obama beat Romney by 2M votes

I think the Jews would have to vote like at 75%+ for the Republicans to win NY, even then the Republicans might not win

All that being said is one thing you are ignoring is Hillary Clinton is not Obama when it comes to the Jewish vote and given her and her husband's history with Jewish voters that is a good thing for her(especially in Florida). Hillary Clinton basically is so Jewish that she would beat actual Jewish American Bernie Saunders among jews.

 

[herakles]

So the fact he made an outright lie(which basically was a right wing media talking point that was complete BS) wasn't reason enough for him to lose?

What lie was that. I don't remember.

 

[SV Fan]

What lie was that. I don't remember.

Well if you look here he had tons of outright lies

http://theweek.com/articles/471342/factchecking-second-obamaromney-debate-who-told-biggest-whoppers

But the lie in question was he said Obama never mentioned the world Terrorism after Benghazi. I blame his staff more then Romney though that didn't do their proper research and just believing right wing "journalism"