If a Republican wins, he'll need to be strong the below points.

[Taarna]

I'll list the key points in order of what I think is most important for a Republican to win the Presidency.

1 ) Candidate must be able to raise a lot of money quickly, and have seasoned ground campaign people.

2 ) Candidate must do well with women voters. Obama won women 55-43% in 2012. The Republican on the ticket needs to get at least 45% or higher of the female...or he/she won't win! Or Win the men's vote by 56% or greater.

3 ) Candidate must be to do well in swing states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. Electoral math.

4 ) Candidate must be able to bring out his base, and have people vote for him, as much as voting against the other person.

5 ) Candidate must be famous and known to low information voters, and free of major scandals.

6 ) Candidate needs to do better with Latinos' in the states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada.


Republicans need to be very pragmatic on 2016. The nation is some trouble and a tipping point / national decline can happen. As such Republicans would be wise need to back the person with the best chance to win.

Rand Paul is a sharp guy, but I think he fails point #2 badly due to his view on abortion, which Women are sensitive too. Personally I think abortion is morally bad, and will one day be viewed like slavery was. But this is 2015.

Scott Walker has made some waves, but I don't see him strong on any of the points, except for point #4.

There is one candidate that meets most of the above requirements:

JEB Bush.

He’s strong on points #1, #3., #5, and #6 , and okay on points #2 and #4.

 

[NotFadeAway]

Truthfully....I don't think the republicans care about the presidency provided they retain congress and Hillary is the Democrat that takes the white house.

I feel bad for Jeb Bush, I really do. He is the Bush we should have had. I don't like his education policy, but aside from that and his last name I think he is a fine candidate. But his brother screwed him. People will see the last name, not the message.

Rand Paul is simply not his father, whom I have voted for in the past. I loved the idea of Ron Paul as President, but not Rand!!!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'd say the biggest factor is Latinos.

Dubya did really well with Latinos. So did Obama.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Truthfully....I don't think the republicans care about the presidency provided they retain congress and Hillary is the Democrat that takes the white house.

That is a valid point IMO. Not only that, but the GOP also holds distinct advantages in the governorships and state legislatures. And while the GOP is a fading brand in the big cities, they are very strong in rural and suburban areas.

 

[NotFadeAway]

I'd say the biggest factor is Latinos.

Dubya did really well with Latinos. So did Obama.

Jeb Bush would have an advantage with Latino's, rare for Republicans!!

That is a valid point IMO. Not only that, but the GOP also holds distinct advantages in the governorships and state legislatures. And while the GOP is a fading brand in the big cities, they are very strong in rural and suburban areas.

This....the perfect yin and yang. One can only hope that in this case, both sides can come to the center ala the 90's and work together.

 

[hippie_hunter]

I'd say the biggest factor is Latinos.

Dubya did really well with Latinos. So did Obama.

Personally, I think the influence of Latinos has been highly overrated. It finally took them until 2012 to be over 10% of the vote despite the fact that their numbers have increased exponentially for the past couple of decades. They're just a crummy voting bloc that doesn't vote for some reason.

Obama's performance with African-Americans and suburban whites helped him far more than his Latino gains. His overtures to the Latino demographic were blatant and expected. But his campaign's attempts to increase African-American turnout in 2012 and the GOP's efforts to turn off suburban whites essentially gave Obama Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania; states that were ripe for the picking and would have given Romney the victory.

 

[hippie_hunter]

This....the perfect yin and yang. One can only hope that in this case, both sides can come to the center ala the 90's and work together.

The 90's were a different time. We had far more talented politicians in that era than we do today. Our media landscape has dramatically changed the political structure. And both parties are more polarized and partisan than ever before. I just don't see a return to the center for either party any time soon.

 

[NotFadeAway]

I also believe that the Republicans will butcher each other in the primaries and any candidate with the ability to win the center population in the country, which the republicans so badly need, won't make it out alive.

On the other hand, I feel like the Democrats are stepping aside for Hillary, who can hopefully channel her inner Bill and reach out to said center population and a republican congress. However, if someone like Warren won the nomination and the Presidency, political bloodshed would follow!!

 

[NotFadeAway]

The 90's were a different time. We had far more talented politicians in that era than we do today. Our media landscape has dramatically changed the political structure. And both parties are more polarized and partisan than ever before. I just don't see a return to the center for either party any time soon.

The problem in a nutshell, and the fact that politicians nor a majority of the public recognize this and recognize how much they are hurting the country drives me mad. And the media is a huge culprit. The media taints EVERYTHING, I can't watch or read the news anymore without my blood boiling at the media itself.

I know it will likely never happen, but I've long dreamed that the Libertarian party would rise and overtake the republican party itself, if wishes were horses.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I wouldn't underestimate Latinos. Their influence grows every year.

Young Latino citizens will vote against the party that attacks their families.

The Republicans really chose a losing side with that one.

Even Rick Perry knew that position was untenable. Rick Perry.

 

[Thundercrack85]

To me the biggest issue for Republicans is their primary. It's essentially dominated by ultra-conservative Evangelicals. So every Republican candidate has to act like they're Rick Santorum for months. Then when they win, and try to win over the rest of the not ultra-conservative, non-Evangelical country they come off as a double talking flip floppers with no convictions. What I call "Romneys".

I fear Jeb Bush will go down that path. Rand Paul is already reversing his stances.

 

[CaptainWagner]

To me the biggest issue for Republicans is their primary. It's essentially dominated by ultra-conservative Evangelicals. So every Republican candidate has to act like they're Rick Santorum for months. Then when they win, and try to win over the rest of the not ultra-conservative, non-Evangelical country they come off as a double talking flip floppers with no convictions. What I call "Romneys".

I fear Jeb Bush will go down that path. Rand Paul is already reversing his stances.

I'm hoping Bush can make it through the primaries without having to bend to much. Those same ultra-conservative blocks will likely flock to him because of his family name. Then come the actual election, stick him with Rubio and support his immigration reform. In my mind, that would be the best case scenario for the G.O.P.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I really think Rubio is a terrible candidate. He's a lightweight. He's already taken some really bad positions.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Rubio is awful and a complete tool

 

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Jeb Bush will lose if he's the nominee.

Every strategist in the DC bubble is talking about what a dream candidate he'd be. They don't fully realize how poisonous the "Bush" brand is.

 

[Thundercrack85]

I don't know. It's been 8 years. If this was 2008, no doubt. 2012, maybe. But it's 2016, and Jeb is not his brother.

His name isn't a bad word in Texas and Florida, and that's huge.

If it wasn't for the primary shenanigans, I think he would have a very good chance of winning.

 

[SV Fan]

I really think Rubio is a terrible candidate. He's a lightweight. He's already taken some really bad positions.

I think the worst thing Rubio did was go into a bipartisan committee with 7 other guys come up with a bill for immigration reform, claim he was for it then a few days later he turned against it because the base went all negative on it.

If he could have gotten that passed in the House, I think that would be his crowning achievement of him being able to get stuff done(as well as give him a good chunk of latino voters), instead he looks spineless

 

[CaptainWagner]

I think the worst thing Rubio did was go into a bipartisan committee with 7 other guys come up with a bill for immigration reform, claim he was for it then a few days later he turned against it because the base went all negative on it.

If he could have gotten that passed in the House, I think that would be his crowning achievement of him being able to get stuff done(as well as give him a good chunk of latino voters), instead he looks spineless

I feel that boiled down to him being a new Congressman with little confidence. If the GOP would agree to support his immigration plan, he would have no problem bringing it back out. If they would be willing to do that, I think it would be a huge boon to their support come a National election.

 

[Taarna]

I also believe that the Republicans will butcher each other in the primaries and any candidate with the ability to win the center population in the country, which the republicans so badly need, won't make it out alive.

On the other hand, I feel like the Democrats are stepping aside for Hillary, who can hopefully channel her inner Bill and reach out to said center population and a republican congress. However, if someone like Warren won the nomination and the Presidency, political bloodshed would follow!!

Republicans are very concerned off record. They know Obama has badly damaged their values and the nation. Hillary Clinton has a feminist agenda, and big government type of vision. Obama already stacked the federal and supreme courts with liberal activists types. Clinton will do the same.

As such they will not take major swings at each other. Rubio and Walker are more VP type of picks. Only Paul and Bush might jab at each other, but jabbing is not JEB's style. He's rather good in debate and has a warm personality like Reagan had...not that good but you get the point! I think he will connect well with joe average as he has an every man type of vibe who does not want to be a rock star. I meet him once at a hotel lobby by chance and found JEB to be an engaging and approachable type of guy. The opposite of Romney if you will.

Jeb Bush has already raised over 100 million dollars. Unless the base rejects him, he's the man. The kingmaker types who back the winner have already selected Bush. Bush has his father’s and brothers ground forces who were 3-1 in elections. As mentioned the Latino’s if they are close to 50/50 = an easy Republican win. Bush is a " buen amigo " in the eyes of most Latino's as he speaks fluent Spanish, and married a Latino.

 

[Taarna]

Personally, I think the influence of Latinos has been highly overrated. It finally took them until 2012 to be over 10% of the vote despite the fact that their numbers have increased exponentially for the past couple of decades. They're just a crummy voting bloc that doesn't vote for some reason.

Obama's performance with African-Americans and suburban whites helped him far more than his Latino gains. His overtures to the Latino demographic were blatant and expected. But his campaign's attempts to increase African-American turnout in 2012 and the GOP's efforts to turn off suburban whites essentially gave Obama Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania; states that were ripe for the picking and would have given Romney the victory.

Hippie, I disagree a bit

"Obama's win in Colorado, a key swing state, can be attributed in part to Latino voters, who make up about 20 percent of its population" Latino's voted for Obama 75%. That's huge.

I think the Dem's can expect a decline in the black voter turnout in 2016, and if Jeb is the Rep candidate a steep decline in the Latino vote advantage. This is a double whammy in some swing states such as Colorado, and Nevada.

Without the black and Latino vote, Obama is blown out in 2012.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/then...hic-percentages-of-the-2012-election-20121109

 

[herakles]

Jeb Bush will lose if he's the nominee.

Every strategist in the DC bubble is talking about what a dream candidate he'd be. They don't fully realize how poisonous the "Bush" brand is.

People and the Media have ADHD. Only Obama and MSNBC continues to bring Bush up especially to blame him for something. People have forgotten about George W Bush for the most part.

Jeb Bush has a Mexican Wife, is fluent in Spanish, his son George P Bush is smart and good looking. That will help with the Hispanic vote. IF Jeb Bush is smart he may well end up winning the GOP nomination.

 

[hippie_hunter]

Even Rick Perry knew that position was untenable. Rick Perry.

It's not so much Rick Perry showing more compassion for Latinos, but the practicality of the issue in regards to the Texas chapter of the GOP. George W. Bush did the exact same thing. They recognize with a booming Latino population, making sure that the GOP takes around 30% - 40% of the Latino vote will keep the state out of Democratic hands. For all the people who love to say that Texas will eventually turn purple or blue, they idiotically ignore that the Texas GOP treats the Latino demographic far differently than other state chapters of the party to make sure that doesn't happen.

I wouldn't underestimate Latinos. Their influence grows every year.

Young Latino citizens will vote against the party that attacks their families.

The Republicans really chose a losing side with that one.

Hippie, I disagree a bit

"Obama's win in Colorado, a key swing state, can be attributed in part to Latino voters, who make up about 20 percent of its population" Latino's voted for Obama 75%. That's huge.

I think the Dem's can expect a decline in the black voter turnout in 2016, and if Jeb is the Rep candidate a steep decline in the Latino vote advantage. This is a double whammy in some swing states such as Colorado, and Nevada.

Without the black and Latino vote, Obama is blown out in 2012.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/then...hic-percentages-of-the-2012-election-20121109

One cannot deny the the growing influence of the Latino vote, but their influence is still rather minimal in comparison to whites and African-Americans due to their voting habits.

Let's give Obama the same voting share of Latinos in 2012. But Obama's victory in the heavily white suburbs surrounding Denver gave him his victory in Colorado. His stealth operation to increase African-American turnout in the black areas of Hampton Roads and the white suburbs of the Alexandria and Hampton Roads areas gave him his victory in Virginia. The exact same thing can be said in Pennsylvania (high black turnout in Philadelphia and surrounding white Philly suburbs), and Ohio (high black turnout in Cleveland and white suburban support throughout the state). Honestly, the only states where the Latino vote had a major impact IMO are Florida (where Cuban-Americans are starting to shift Democratic) and Nevada (with a heavy Latino population in Las Vegas, but Obama was boosted with his victory in suburban white Washoe County as well).

While the GOP has been making gains among white voters, it's among blue collar, rural white voters. It's often ignored that the GOP has a major suburban problem as of late. The extreme positions of GOP candidates regarding social issues has been a thorn in the GOP's side. By being homophobic, anti-intellectual, and oblivious to women's issues, the GOP has a hard time connecting with an important segment of the white demographic that would most likely vote Republican if certain GOP candidates just toned it down a little.

 

[SV Fan]

It's not so much Rick Perry showing more compassion for Latinos, but the practicality of the issue in regards to the Texas chapter of the GOP. George W. Bush did the exact same thing. They recognize with a booming Latino population, making sure that the GOP takes around 30% - 40% of the Latino vote will keep the state out of Democratic hands. For all the people who love to say that Texas will eventually turn purple or blue, they idiotically ignore that the Texas GOP treats the Latino demographic far differently than other state chapters of the party to make sure that doesn't happen.

Texas has terrible turnout for Latino voters as well. When you ask why is latino vote so bad in America, well one reason Texas(which drags down the national numbers). All that being said one way to make sure they don't vote is not to give them a reason to go out and vote(for negative reason) and much what you said is true in that case.

 

[Marvolo]

I don't know. It's been 8 years. If this was 2008, no doubt. 2012, maybe. But it's 2016, and Jeb is not his brother.

His name isn't a bad word in Texas and Florida, and that's huge.

If it wasn't for the primary shenanigans, I think he would have a very good chance of winning.

Jeb has always been held in a more positive light than his brother. Least thats the impression ive always gotten. He seems to be a bit smarter than his brother as well. And Jeb wont be running with Dick Halliburton Cheney. That will help.

 

[Thundercrack85]

Every time it seems like the Republicans are about to take a step forward in the right direction, they take a step back. You have Christie coming out against marijuana, you have Rubio trying to keep a 50 year old failed embargo alive, you have Paul reversing on defense spending.

The Republican party isn't just the party of bad ideas, it's the party of old bad ideas. At least the Democrats come up with new bad ideas.