Is it fair to say that Marvel only gets a percentage of the gross from the X-Men TV show and the re-release of their merch and comics is due only to their movie success?
In my opinion this is possible but unlikely. Marvel would do better promoting their own properties rather than Fox's.
Think about this: Disney owns ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, ESPN News, ESPN Classic, The Disney Channel, ABC Family, Toon Disney, Playhouse Disney etc. etc. etc.
Every viewer who is watching X-Men on Fox is not watching something on one of those Disney owned channels.
And in terms of X-Men and Deadpool merchandise, they were coming out after Fantastic Four but before Deadpool or AOA. It wasn't a simple matter of "Hey, Deadpool and AOA are doing well, let's jump on this train even though we haven't been supporting Fox in any way over the past several years."
Something changed.
Is it
possible that Disney just decided to be good guys and give Fox much more than they had been giving them in the recent past to start to repair the relationship and hope Fox would be nicer in the future?
Yes.
But based on my experience in the business world and my observations of the interactions between Fox and Marvel, it seems far more likely that there was some more specific agreement in place. You don't give the kid down the street your bike and say: "And hey, if you feel like giving me $40 in a week or two, that would be cool. . . or $30 . . . or $20, whatever." You don't give someone something and expect something in return and simply hope they'll give you what you want later. And the one thing that Fox had that Marvel clearly wanted was FF rights, and since the timing was shortly after FF flopped and rendered the rights in Fox's hands all but worthless, it's a very reasonable assumption that at least some rough agreement about FF rights was part of what happened in the Fall.
BUT even if we go with the idea that the dramatically increased cooperation didn't have any strings attached, isn't it far more likely than it has been in the past that Marvel and Fox might work together on the next FF film?
I've never said that I'm certain Marvel has the FF rights. I've simply said that I believe, based on everything I'm seeing, that Marvel will be heavily involved in the production of the next FF film one way or another.
The only detail that I feel I can say with some degree of certainty is: "Fox will not just continue to blindly throw money at FF films and crank out crap film after crap film."
And as long as Fox doesn't blindly throw money at FF films, Marvel is likely to have an increased role in the next FF film one way or another.