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Will it outgross Deadpool Vol. 1?

  • Yes in North America

  • Yes, worldwide

  • Yes in North America & also worldwide


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15.8m is the Saturday estimate from insiders over at BOT. That's a low bump from an already depressed Friday figure. It's kinda shocking that the Friday number was lower than DP2's 1st Tuesday which was coming off of an inflated holiday Monday.

That number puts DP2 on course for 42.1m for the sophomore weekend. So the 3 day weekend is down 66.3% from last weekend. Maybe the loss of all the premium screens (3D, IMAX or other PLFs) and showtimes did hurt DP2 a lot but still the weekend number is awful. DP2 should have managed a soft drop during this holiday weekend. Maybe the lack of competition will augur well for the legs in the next 5 weeks but there's no spinning this drop. It's very bad.
 
The thing is Solo isn't even overperforming.

A Star Wars movie under performing this week is still over 100m with a ridiculous sized audience. Unless it hit like 40m, this impacted it because may of the audiences for IW, Deadpool and Star Wars are the same. Right now there are 3 huge movies with similar extreme fan bases in theaters. There was no way this was not gonna effect all 3 in some form.

When movies get released in Feb the competition and anticipation for a big movie is much different then a crowded summer where every week something new is out. Especially ones like Marvel, Star War, Jurassic etc. People who don't go to the movies every week are gonna choose one over the other.
 
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I chose to watch Solo instead of both, but then I realized that I didn't like Deadpool 2 so much.
 
Ideally, and you can cite all those examples for comic book movies. However, you can also cite similar examples for lack of growth for sequels as well. For a lot of sequels there's a stigma that the sequel isn't as good as the original.

IMHO, Deadpool 2 was solid, but not as solid or fresh or tight as the original. I think many probably agree.

In 2016, Deadpool was a cutting-edge movie for the genre unlike anything we've really seen before. It was refreshing and different. In 2018, that's no longer the case.

You can look at other R-rated comic book franchises that were well received, like Kingsman, that didn't have growth either. Kingsman was very well received. The sequel was not as well received and made less money domestically and worldwide.

But Kingsman wasn't even that huge. It had great legs but it was competing with 50 Shades and 50 Shades earned more money. So not really comparable. That's like comparing Maze Runner to the Hunger Games.
 
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Deadpool 2 grossed an estimated $42.70M over the 3-day weekend. 4-day weekend estimate is $53.50M. Estimated total gross through Monday is $218.21M.
 
Big fall from opening weekend.
 
Good? Disappointing?

Panic3.gif


DP2 is already a big success with a production budget of 110m but the weekend drop is horrible. 300m might be in jeopardy.
 
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Deadpool 2 grossed an estimated $57.0M internationally over the 3-day weekend. International total through Sunday is $279.7M, global total through Sunday is $487.1M.
 
Batman and Robin had a smaller drop than this. People wanted to rewatch Mr. Freeze explaining what killed the dinosaurs more than see baby legs again.

Why couldn't this be an August release?
 
But Kingsman wasn't even that huge. It had great legs but it was competing with 50 Shades and 50 Shades earned more money. So not really comparable. That's like comparing Maze Runner to the Hunger Games.

For an R-rated comic book film, Kingsman did pretty huge. It made over $414 million worldwide.

Also, here's another comparison, Spider-Man 2, despite being widely recognized as one of the best comic book superhero movies ever and one of the best movies of the year, still made less than the original. There wasn't growth.

Honestly, these seem like good numbers for Deadpool 2. It won't be as big as the original, but it's already over $200 million. It will probably top out at $275-ish.

Deadpool is now a billion dollar movie franchise. I could never have imagined that 10 years ago.
 
Batman and Robin had a smaller drop than this. People wanted to rewatch Mr. Freeze explaining what killed the dinosaurs more than see baby legs again.

Why couldn't this be an August release?

OK seriously? I get that everyone is into hyperbole on the internet. I admit I do it too, but it's hardly that bad. Even Spider-Man Homecoming had a 62 percent drop in its second weekend. It was largest second weekend drop for an MCU film ever.
 
There are way too many tentpoles being released, which are crammed one after another. I really hope studios scale back on their juggernauts, because otherwise the bubble is going to burst soon. I'm not worried about Deadpool 2 in the slightest, as it is managing to hold its own even in an overstuffed summer and against huge tentpoles. Deadpool himself is proper tentpole material now... which is awesome, and something we all could have only dreamed about before the original was released (I was one of the more optimistic folks around here, thinking that it could at least manage to crack $300-350m worldwide, which still was a huge underestimation). And all that with an R-rating!
The next big US release is going to be The Incredibles 2, so that should give the movie (and Solo, which is eyeing a 101m 4-day weekend debut) some space to breathe.
 
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OK seriously? I get that everyone is into hyperbole on the internet. I admit I do it too, but it's hardly that bad. Even Spider-Man Homecoming had a 62 percent drop in its second weekend. It was largest second weekend drop for an MCU film ever.

Yes but homecoming almost made 900 mill,do we think DP2 wiil come close that, i dont think it will.
 
There are way too many tentpoles being released, which are crammed one after another. I really hope studios scale back on their juggernauts, because otherwise the bubble is going to burst soon. I'm not worried about Deadpool 2 in the slightest, as it is managing to hold its own even in an overstuffed summer and against huge tentpoles. Deadpool himself is proper tentpole material now... which is awesome, and something we all could have only dreamed about before the original was released (I was one of the more optimistic folks around here, thinking that it could at least manage to crack $300-350m worldwide, which still was a huge underestimation). And all that with an R-rating!
The next big US release is going to be The Incredibles 2, so that should give the movie (and Solo, which is eyeing a 101m 4-day weekend debut) some space to breathe.
That's sort of been the case for the industry for over 10 years or more. A new tentpole every week of the summer. It's been going on for quite a while.
 
Yes but homecoming almost made 900 mill,do we think DP2 wiil come close that, i dont think it will.

No it won't, but it doesn't have China either. That was another $116 million for Spider-Man. Plus, Deadpool is an R-rated outrageous movie about an antihero. It's arguably not as financially broad as Spider-Man.

So for Deadpool 2 to still be doing this well and doing comparable business to major PG-13 superhero franchises and outdoing a new Star Wars movie, is pretty spectacular IMO.
 
No it won't, but it doesn't have China either. That was another $116 million for Spider-Man. Plus, Deadpool is an R-rated outrageous movie about an antihero. It's arguably not as financially broad as Spider-Man.

So for Deadpool 2 to still be doing this well and doing comparable business to major PG-13 superhero franchises and outdoing a new Star Wars movie, is pretty spectacular IMO.

Not to mention the 3D surcharge.
 
It’s pretty close to reaching $500 million WW at least!
 
Again, the release date was idiotic.

That being said the film is still doing very well. Deadpool is definitely a cinematic superstar anyway you cut it.
 
It definitely won't reach 299 million in North America, and definitely not 799 worldwide. Is there any major market left for Deadpool 2?
 
I predict that DP2 will end its’ run around $650 million or more. Probably won’t beat the first, though!
 
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