2011 NFL Thread: The Lazarus Season - Part 4

[The Incredible Hulk]

When folks say measurables, they usually mean their talent, not statistics. Again, basing your argument just on the stat line really shows how much tunnel vision you have. By the way how many different coordinators did Harrington have? Since apparently it's multiplied for what Alex has had. By the way before you answer I just want to let you know that's impossible.

Harrington had 3 different head coaches (Mornhinweg, Mooch, Jauron) (4 if you count Marinelli who cut him before he ever played a game for him) and 4 different OC's with the Lions alone, and then another set his year in Miami, and another set his year in Atlanta. He was also on a Lions team that had the worst 10 year stretch of any franchise in NFL history. When it comes to multiple offenses and bad teams, I'm not sure Joey Ballgame could be beat.

Okay. Did you not just hear what I said? Basing your argument entirely on statistics in the sport of football is a terrible path to go down. Doesn't matter what site comes up with this or that kind of rating, nothing beats the eyeball test.

But stats are the "measurables" and the basis for comparison at the QB positron. The old school "Scouts know better than you because they can SEE it" argument holds no water and is completely subjective. Even so, using your "test" neither player, outside of short spurts, has "looked" like a good QB in their time in the NFL. So what is that proving exactly?

You tell me. You were all kiddy about huge passing numbers and ranting about how Smith doesn't have them. And I am talking about individual success. Mike Vick is piling up a bunch of passing yards, yet isn't playing that well on the field. Don't see where you got team success with that. Both go hand and hand though. Mike Vick's play is helping screw the Eagles over while piling up huge numbers. Alex Smith's play is helping his team win games, yet he's not passing for as many yards.

Take the INT's in the Buffalo game out of the equation and the Eagles issues aren't on Vick. They're getting killed by their defense. Vick is a good, sometimes great, multi-dimensional QB, playing on a team that struggles on both sides of the line of scrimmage and has a poor LB corps that's been getting exposed over and over. Alex Smith is, at best, a game manager who's team, is winning with a great running game and a talented defense.

Nothing wrong with that, mind you. Trent Dillfer and Jeff Hostetler won Super Bowls being effective game managers. You just hope to get more than that out of a QB that's #1 overall pick. And by year 6, that's pretty set in stone what Smith's ceiling is going to be. He's not going to win you many games all by himself, but he sure can lose a few.

He's had a good run, by his standards, the first part of this season, although I expect him to become quite familiar with the ceiling architecture at Ford Field on Sunday.

 

[CConn]

Not to mention they had the chance to draft one of the absolute best QBs in the League in Rogers instead.

 

[kane9321]

Jeremy Maclin won the game for the 49ers.

lol...wrong

 

[Ness]

Harrington had 3 different head coaches (Mornhinweg, Mooch, Jauron) (4 if you count Marinelli who cut him before he ever played a game for him) and 4 different OC's with the Lions alone, and then another set his year in Miami, and another set his year in Atlanta. He was also on a Lions team that had the worst 10 year stretch of any franchise in NFL history. When it comes to multiple offenses and bad teams, I'm not sure Joey Ballgame could be beat.

Alex had three different head coaches and six offensive coordinators to date. And those 49ers teams didn't have much talent either, and that's playing in the NFC West where they were the doormat. So saying it was multiplied was definitely an exaggeration. Steve Mariucci was on record saying Joey worked hard and did everything he possibly could, it just never worked out for him.

But stats are the "measurables" and the basis for comparison at the QB positron. The old school "Scouts know better than you because they can SEE it" argument holds no water and is completely subjective.

And there is a reason why organizations actually hire scouts rather than looking at stats to select players. Because there are way too many variables to consider when it comes to football. One of the many would be systems a player plays in. It's not really subjective when seeing a player play compared to looking at a piece of paper to make a conclusion. It's just common sense as a better approach.

ake the Buffalo game out of the equation and the Eagles issues aren't on Vick. They're getting killed by their defense. Vick is a good, sometimes great, multi-dimensional QB, playing on a team that struggles on both sides of the line of scrimmage and has a poor LB corps that's been getting exposed over and over. Alex Smith is, at bets, a game manager who's tea, is winning with a great running game and a talented defense.

Watching Vick play this season his decision making hasn't been that great as it was last season. Yes he's still pretty good, but he's not playing at the level he was last season and can also be blamed for the Eagles struggles. Even he said he has to play better himself. He's passing for a bunch of yards, but still struggling. And getting banged up. But we've been here before. We've seen a lot of quarterbacks in recent memory pass for a good amount of yardage, but still struggle. Jon Kitna did it with Detroit a while back. Marc Bugler is another good example.

 

[Ness]

Nothing wrong with that, mind you. Trent Dillfer and Jeff Hostetler won Super Bowls being effective game managers. You just hope to get more than that out of a QB that's #1 overall pick. And by year 6, that's pretty set in stone what Smith's ceiling is going to be. He's not going to win you many games all by himself, but he sure can lose a few.

He's had a good run, by his standards, the first part of this season, although I expect him to become quite familiar with the ceiling architecture at Ford Field on Sunday.

Or it could be a system. Rich Gannon is a good example of quarterback that developed later in his career in a different system, and he wasn't a game manager. Or Warren Moon. It took him a long time before he adjusted to the pros. Or Dan Fouts, who didn't start blossoming with the Chargers until his sixth or seventh season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has changed his career and looks a lot better than he used to. You can't cap a player, especially a quarterback, by their sixth year and say this or that. Not to mention the season has only been a month in. For having no offseason and a new head coach in yet another system, Smith has done pretty well and it's obvious that Harbaugh is taking the training wheels off more and more as the weeks progress and the players get more comfortable with the offense, specifically the passing game.

Don't be surprised if Willis, Bowman, Smith, and Brooks give Stafford nightmares as well.

 

[CConn]

lol...wrong

No, literally. He did.

And I don't mean that as an insult to the 49ers at all. So you can put away your testy little fanboy attitude.

The 49ers played well. Capitalized on all of the Eagles various defensive miscues.

However, at the end of the day, the Eagles offense was driving, executing effectively, and should have been able to put away the game on a last second FG or TD.

But Maclin's poor decision not to just duck out of bounds rather than try to squeeze an extra yard or two out of his reception was what ended that game.

 

[CConn]

Or it could be a system. Rich Gannon is a good example of quarterback that developed later in his career in a different system, and he wasn't a game manager. Or Warren Moon. It took him a long time before he adjusted to the pros. Or Dan Fouts, who didn't start blossoming with the Chargers until his sixth or seventh season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has changed his career and looks a lot better than he used to. You can't cap a player, especially a quarterback, by their sixth year and say this or that. Not to mention the season has only been a month in. For having no offseason and a new head coach in yet another system, Smith has done pretty well and it's obvious that Harbaugh is taking the training wheels off more and more as the weeks progress and the players get more comfortable with the offense, specifically the passing game.

Don't be surprised if Willis, Bowman, Smith, and Brooks give Stafford nightmares as well.

Yeah, but those guys are definitely more exceptions than the rule.

Is it possible for Alex Smith to become like those guys? Sure. But is it probably? No, it isn't at all. And has Smith's play in a total of only 5 games mean that we should not consider his 6 years of mistakes and poor play? No, it doesn't.

 

[Assassin32]

The Raiders send draft picks to Seattle for LB Aaron Curry. The ghost of Al Davis remains hard at work.

 

[DoomsdayApex]

Curry? The guy is a bust. The Raiders might be a rival of mine but jeez! I feel sorry for that squad.

 

[Denny67]

Yeah, but those guys are definitely more exceptions than the rule.

Is it possible for Alex Smith to become like those guys? Sure. But is it probably? No, it isn't at all. And has Smith's play in a total of only 5 games mean that we should not consider his 6 years of mistakes and poor play? No, it doesn't.

You obviously have not watched much 49er football. I have been a diehard fan for over 30 years now. Have 7 OCs in 7 years is no minor tidbit to gloss over. That is a major factor in the slowing of any QBs development. Both Tom Brady and Payton Manning have openly expressed that where they are today is in large part to where they landed in the NFL and the stability there.

Anybody who knows the game and has watched the 49ers know full well that the ever changing playbook has caused the entire offense struggle and be inconsistent not "just Alex." There have been various protection issues over the years, which has led to breakdowns all over the place.
Wrong routes run and just underperforming all over the place. As a matter of fact, the majority of Alex’s INTs have been a result of catchable tipped balls.

Coming out of College, even Urban Meyer stated that Alex is almost too smart for his own good. He wants to know it all and until he does he will struggle; but once he “gets it” he is amazing.

I would also add that he was hurt and did not play the better part of almost two seasons, his rookie year the 9ers were coming out of cap hell and he had almost no talent around him. Then on top of that he has had to play under two defensive head coaches who arguably had no business being head coaches and defiantly had no clue how to develop a QB who was not even taking snaps from under center until he was drafted into the NFL. That is nothing big today but then it was.


Has Alex struggled in the past? Yup. Does he “suck?” Hell no. Some of the balls he throws are jaw dropping and bottom line, he has 1 INT in 5 games and has been a major contributing part of a team that sits at 4-1.

It is no coincidence that under Jim Harbaugh he is just now starting to tap his potential. I am not the only one who thinks so.

Kurt Warner ranked him the number 4 QB in the NFL on NFL Network:

My big surprise, Alex Smith comes in at number 4, a guy I probably didn't expect to make this list all year long, but he's got his team at 4-1 right now, he's playing as consistent as anybody and what I've seen the last couple weeks is him making the big play, something that he hadn't done up to that point in the season.

Mike Mayock talks about and shows it as well.

 

[Matt]

Could Alex Smith develop into a great late bloomer like Warner, Gannon, and so on? Sure. Will he? Harbaugh or no, the odds are against him. I'm glad to see the Niners doing well, fans deserve it. But don't get ahead of yourself.

 

[Dr. Evil]

The day Alex Smith becomes a great QB will also be the day that Jim Caldwell actually does something for the Colts other then fetch water for Coach Manning and looking stupid on the sidelines.

 

[Ness]

Yeah, but those guys are definitely more exceptions than the rule.

Is it possible for Alex Smith to become like those guys? Sure. But is it probably? No, it isn't at all. And has Smith's play in a total of only 5 games mean that we should not consider his 6 years of mistakes and poor play? No, it doesn't.

If you're going to consider his six years of poor play let's also consider his six years of having to deal with terrible management and constant coaching change, lack of talent on the roster, and injury problems. I don't remember anyone saying we shouldn't consider what he has or has not done in the past. The important thing is how is he doing now, which is pretty good.

 

[Genesis 1.0]

Could Alex Smith develop into a great late bloomer like Warner, Gannon, and so on? Sure. Will he? Harbaugh or no, the odds are against him. I'm glad to see the Niners doing well, fans deserve it. But don't get ahead of yourself.

How dare you even mention THE Man, Rich Gannon, in the same breath as Alex Smith.

Seriously, guy's one of my favorite QBs of all time.

 

[Hound55]

Look, Alex Smith is just what the Niners need, he's a solid, efficient quarterback who's nothing particularly earth-shattering, but doesn't make stupid costly mistakes, thereby not eating away at the true strengths of the team; defense and the running game.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

Or it could be a system. Rich Gannon is a good example of quarterback that developed later in his career in a different system, and he wasn't a game manager. Or Warren Moon. It took him a long time before he adjusted to the pros. Or Dan Fouts, who didn't start blossoming with the Chargers until his sixth or seventh season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has changed his career and looks a lot better than he used to. You can't cap a player, especially a quarterback, by their sixth year and say this or that. Not to mention the season has only been a month in. For having no offseason and a new head coach in yet another system, Smith has done pretty well and it's obvious that Harbaugh is taking the training wheels off more and more as the weeks progress and the players get more comfortable with the offense, specifically the passing game.

Except none of those QB's you've mentioned had over 50 starts in their first 5 years in the league like Alex Smith did.

So while guys like Gannon and Fitzpatrick (so far) didnt develop until later in their careers They didnt have much of a track record as a starting QB to point to, to definitively say what they were or weren't, whereas Smith does. (Gannon didn't get to his 50th career start until his 11th season in the league BTW) It's not exactly going out on a limb at this point to say we have a pretty good idea of what Smith is and isn't. I dont get the thinking of people who act as if he's still some developing "prospect" at almost 28 years old?

Warren Moon, is a poor example BTW, as he started his career in the CFL, excelled there for years, and then threw for 3,300 yards his first year in the NFL in '84.

 

[Immortalfire]

The day Alex Smith becomes a great QB will also be the day that Jim Caldwell actually does something for the Colts other then fetch water for Coach Manning and looking stupid on the sidelines.

 

[Poeman]

Alex Smith is having a great 6th rookie season

 

[Matt]

How dare you even mention THE Man, Rich Gannon, in the same breath as Alex Smith.

Seriously, guy's one of my favorite QBs of all time.

I like Gannon too.

Honestly, I think it is premature to compare Alex Smith to Gannon or Warner or even Warren Moon. The best that I can see him being compared to is someone like Tommy Maddox.

 

[Poeman]

More like Tim Couch and his wonderful one year he had with the Brownies

 

[kane9321]

war alex..war

 

[Assassin32]

Yeah, everyone should stop mentioning Alex Smith and Rich Gannon in the same breath. Their careers are not comparable. Gannon was not a late bloomer, he just wasn't given much of a chance until Jon Gruden and Al Davis gambled on him. As a younger quarterback, Rich Gannon played well in Minnesota and Kansas City, but he was always forced to sit behind the considerable talents of Brad Johnson and Elvis Grbac.

Alex Smith, on the other hand, has always been and will always be painfully unspectacular as an NFL quarterback.

 

[Assassin32]

Curry? The guy is a bust. The Raiders might be a rival of mine but jeez! I feel sorry for that squad.

Jarvis Moss is a bust, too, but he's been playing excellent football since arriving in Oakland. Collecting talented cast-aways is what the Raiders do, and they've only had to spend a seventh round pick for a world-class athlete this time.

 

[The Incredible Hulk]

Jarvis Moss is a bust, too, but he's been playing excellent football since arriving in Oakland. Collecting talented cast-aways is what the Raiders do, and they've only had to spend a seventh round pick for a world-class athlete this time.

7th round this year and a conditional 4th or 5th in 2013 I believe.

 

[Assassin32]

7th round this year and a conditional 2nd or 3rd in 2013 I believe.

The second pick is conditional, though. Curry has to play a certain amount of time, i.e. have a certain amount of success as a Raider.