2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[dark_b]

the more i see from Avengers the more expensive the movie looks and to more i think it will underperform.

 

[The Morningstar]

Underperform? Are you joking? That trailer had everything a summer blockbuster needs. It was like the Dark of the Moon trailer... but with actual characterisation and semblance of a plot.

I see it making 800 million, minimum.

 

[dark_b]

i think it will underperform based on the budget. its true that Marvel was very cheap in the last 3 years. but this looks like a very expensive movie. and right now only we(yes i am also a fanboy) are hyped. i dont see the world going crazy over avengers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

the more i see from Avengers the more expensive the movie looks and to more i think it will underperform.

I don't know about under perform but I do think that it's being over predicted.

Everyone on these boards seem to believe that every comicbook movie is going to make 800 to billion dollars and I just don't see that happening. The Spider-Man reboot has no shot of making as much as the original domestically. And TDKR's has a slim chance of outdoing the original. As for the Avengers, only one film building up to it has made 300mil so why should I start thinking that this movie is a lock for a billion dollars?

I think that all of them comic book movies are being over predicted.

 

[craigdbfan]

the more i see from Avengers the more expensive the movie looks and to more i think it will underperform.

i think it will underperform based on the budget. its true that Marvel was very cheap in the last 3 years. but this looks like a very expensive movie. and right now only we(yes i am also a fanboy) are hyped. i dont see the world going crazy over avengers.

[YT]R2SS0gZ_kKI[/YT]

 

[The Morningstar]

i think it will underperform based on the budget. its true that Marvel was very cheap in the last 3 years. but this looks like a very expensive movie. and right now only we(yes i am also a fanboy) are hyped. i dont see the world going crazy over avengers.

The trailer has only been live for about an hour. When general movie goers get to see it, they will be hyped, guaranteed.

Like i said, it had the spectacle and awe of the Dark of the Moon trailers, but with characterisation.

When you consider the stuff that ISN'T in the trailer, like the Hulk vs Thor fight, Hulk and Cap fighting together, all the confrontations with Loki and the alien army... this movie will be insane.

 

[dark_b]

but Avengers is being promoted 100% heavy for the last 6 months. if the world would be hyped by Avengers we would already see it.

 

[The Morningstar]

For the last 6 months? Huh? Up until now we've had 1 crap trailer, an awesome Superbowl spot, and a load of merchandise that only little kids care about.

You should understand what a trailer does to people. Especially trailers like the one just released.

My view is, if Dark of the Moon can make a billion, Avengers can make at least 800 million. It's a ****ing alien invasion disaster movie (disaster movies do well 9 times out of 10 anyway) but with superheroes. I don't see how it can fail, unless it is an actual disaster, like Batman and Robin level disaster.

 

[craigdbfan]

but Avengers is being promoted 100% heavy for the last 6 months. if the world would be hyped by Avengers we would already see it.

What does that even mean? Did the world have a press conference as a whole and declare their excitement or lack thereof? Did I miss this?

What gauge are you even using to write such a baseless statement?

 

[Shifty]

Saw the trailer, didn't really do anything for me however none of Marvel films have.
I'll use a BOGO movie coupon from a Cheerios box to go see it.

With a $220 million production budget plus the marketing costs if it took in $800 million world wide that means the studios will received half of that (splitting with theatre chains) so $400 million. They could make $100 million in profit minus any revenue sharing deals with the stars if there are any.

Based on what Iron Man and Thor have done overseas (the two strongest Marvel performers in the film) I'd say they could maybe get to $700-750 million worldwide.

 

[kvz5]

What does that even mean? Did the world have a press conference as a whole and declare their excitement or lack thereof? Did I miss this?

What gauge are you even using to write such a baseless statement?

 

[DACrowe]

The Avengers has a chance to do about as well as the Iron Man films did, and perhaps a little better overseas as the genre is becoming more popular since IM2.

So, $300+ million domestic and $600-$700 million WW seems quite doable. That is a big hit. ONly diehard fans will be upset if it doesn't cross $800 million WW, as none of the franchises its pulling from have demonstrated that kind of draw. I'm sure as long as it crosses $600 million WW, Disney/Marvel should be happy.

 

[dark_b]

What does that even mean? Did the world have a press conference as a whole and declare their excitement or lack thereof? Did I miss this?

What gauge are you even using to write such a baseless statement?

sorry i meant general public. you are not angry that i think that Avengers will underperform right?

 

[craigdbfan]

Again what are you using as a measuring tool? I'm incredibly curious as to how you're gauging how the general public/world feels about this movie.

I'm not angry. I'm dumbfounded at the idea of your claim of knowing exactly how the general public feels and not providing the smallest inclination as to how you're getting to that conclusion.

 

[dark_b]

arent we all using the last 5 years to form our opinion how much a movie will make based on the footage and marketing?

 

[jmc]

The Avengers has a chance to do about as well as the Iron Man films did, and perhaps a little better overseas as the genre is becoming more popular since IM2.

So, $300+ million domestic and $600-$700 million WW seems quite doable. That is a big hit. ONly diehard fans will be upset if it doesn't cross $800 million WW, as none of the franchises its pulling from have demonstrated that kind of draw. I'm sure as long as it crosses $600 million WW, Disney/Marvel should be happy.

$800 million is a 100% absolute best case, perfect storm scenario. I don't understand how people think that's an underestimation, I maintain that the team up aspect is not enough to generate much more income. The trailer really didn't do anything to sway me that it's going to be this massive record breaker.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

$800 million is a 100% absolute best case, perfect storm scenario. I don't understand how people think that's an underestimation, I maintain that the team up aspect is not enough to generate much more income. The trailer really didn't do anything to sway me that it's going to be this massive record breaker.

I could not agree with you more.

If I'm wrong and the movie makes 900 to 1bil so be it, bring up this post but right now I do not see the basis of these massive predictions. The same people are watching these films so why is it going to just blow Iron Man out of the box office waters? If people were so excited why did Captain America and Thor make under 200mil domestically? I just see no proof of growth to make the prediction that it's going to do 400+mil in the states. Now over seas is different, I could see in between 400/ 500mil overseas but domestically I still say it's lucky if to gets 360mil.

I can definitely see 800+mil because of the overseas numbers but I think that domestic is going to hinder it's total.

 

[jmc]

I could not agree with you more.

If I'm wrong and the movie makes 900 to 1bil so be it, bring up this post but right now I do not see the basis of these massive predictions. The same people are watching these films so why is it going to just blow Iron Man out of the box office waters? If people were so excited why did Captain America and Thor make under 200mil domestically? I just see no proof of growth to make the prediction that it's going to do 400+mil in the states. Now over seas is different, I could see in between 400/ 500mil overseas but domestically I still say it's lucky if to gets 360mil.

I can definitely see 800+mil because of the overseas numbers but I think that domestic is going to hinder it's total.

Fans keep doing their math wrong. IM, Thor, Cap, Hulk, they all share the exact same audience. I've heard nonsense about how its four different audiences coming to see this film, bollocks, there's a massive amount of cross-pollination.

 

[humbdrumb]

The Avengers looks exactly like Transformers 3. CGI **** blowing up other CGI **** in a non-descript cityscape. It'll make billions.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Fans keep doing their math wrong. IM, Thor, Cap, Hulk, they all share the exact same audience. I've heard nonsense about how its four different audiences coming to see this film, bullocks, there's a massive amount of cross-pollination.

Exactly. You have to take into account that the same people are seeing these films. You can't just add the totals of the films together and assume that The Avengers is going to do 2 billion.

If people really love the film then I could see it shattering expectations but only if it's truly special or entertaining to people.

 

[The Morningstar]

You have to take into account that the trailer that has just hit the internet is nothing like the trailers of any other Marvel movies, or any other superhero movie for that matter. The other Marvel movies have nothing even approaching the scale and spectacle of that trailer.

It's a disaster movie. An alien invasion disaster movie. Big budgeted disaster movies usually make massive money. Throw superheroes on top of that. BANG. You've got a whole new audience and a whole lot of cash.

It's nothing to do with the team aspect. It's nothing to do with fans of the individual characters coming together.

It's to do with it being an alien invasion disaster movie with New York getting blown up... featuring superheroes like Iron Man.

I said this months ago, if Marvel market this as a disaster movie on the scale of Dark of the Moon... but with popular superheroes, it'll make mega money.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^We will see what happens. I think that Battleship looks just as big and nobody is predicting a billion for that.

They did finally release a decent trailer, I will give them that. I do think it's bit disappointing that it just looks like every other action film. Doesn't look like a whole lot of new stuff is in but people love rehashes so that shouldn't hurt it.

 

[The Morningstar]

Battleship doesn't have Iron Man dog fighting in a 10 second long tracking shot. It has a nobody in Taylor Kitsch as the lead. But i guess it has... Rihanna? lol.

I'm not predicting a billion for Avengers. I'm predicting around 800 million, give or take.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm seen Iron Man fly in two films, not really that impressed with that. Don't get be wrong it's a solid trailer but I don't get all of the hoopla.

 

[jmc]

Well apparently if you feel you've already seen it due to the superbowl trailer that means you're biased.