2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

Sorry for the lame title, clearly not my game. Seeing as how this is the follow up to the supposed monster year, I found that title fitting.

Figure I'd start this now. Predictions later, once we get a good feel for the line up, but no need for discussions to wait.

This has to be the Rocks year, he has 4 pretty significant films dropping in 4 back to back months and if even 3 of them are solid, he will be cemented as the modern 80's action star re incarnate.

Snitch in Feb
GI Joe in March
Pain & Gain(and Bay) in April
Fast 6 in May
...and hercules the year after.

High hopes for him. However if they all flop, sheesh.

 

I didn't know he had that many movie coming out, it's too bad he hasn't been able to build an action type of franchise like Arnold, Sly and Bruce Willis have done.

 

Rock could of been the next Arnold , but chose too make bad Disney movies. Hopefully this year will turn things around for him.

 

I love The Rock. I hope that 2013 is more successful then 2012 was for him. And hopefully, it was all worth it that GI Joe: Retaliation got delayed 9 months.

 

He would be ideal for a Terminator film..in some ways.

Fast 6 is going to have to deal with Ironman 3 and one other big thing next may. I'd like to see them repeat the success of fast 5 but, that will prove to be difficult I think.

 

I was going to make this thread later this week .

Anyway, this is a pretty good list of what 2013 has in store.

Some of the bigger films (feel free to add any I miss):

Spoiler

February
14th - A Good Day to Die Hard

March
1st - Jack the Giant Slayer
8th - Oz: The Great & Powerful
29th - G.I. Joe: Retaliation / The Host

April
5th - Jurassic Park (3D re-release)
19th - Oblivion

May
3rd - Iron Man 3 (though it's the week before in many places)
17th - Star Trek Into Darkness
24 - Fast & Furious 6 / The Hangover 3 / EPIC

June
7th - After Earth
14th - Man of Steel
21st - Monsters University / World War Z

July
3rd - Despicable Me 2 / The Lone Ranger
12th - Pacific Rim / Grown Ups 2
26th - The Wolverine
31st - The Smurfs 2

August
2nd - 300: Rise of an Empire

November
8th - Thor: The Dark World
22nd - Hunger Games: Catching Fire

December
13th - The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

 

1) Iron Man 3
2) Star Trek Into Darkness
3) Hunger Games
4) Man of Steel (I'd like to see it further up, but this would be a GREAT spot after SR and as a new franchise)
5) After Earth
6) Hobbit
7) Thor
8) Oblivion
9) One Thousand AD
10) The Lone Ranger

 

Hunger Games and IM3 (and maybe The Hobbit) will be battling for the top spot.

Smurfs 2 and Monsters University getting the family dollar after that.

Then Star Trek and Thor.

MoS and The Wolverine after that.

 

hunger games, im3, wolvie will all have modest to huge takes.

i'd like to think that star treks great reception puts it into the running for something great, possibly the biggest take of the year.

I also want to see mos do good and secure some more dc films.

 

Don't forget about Fast and Furious 6, guys. It will no doubt make over 500 million worldwide since it will be an absolute juggernaut internationally. Who could have predicted Fast Five making that much money? It was crazy.

 

The reason I'm hesitant on Hobbit is because if audience is just as mixed as the critics it might downplay the second one, HOWEVER if the audience similarly loves it- that's looking at top spot.

With Man of Steel, as said it's the classic "fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me" that great films coming back after a 'bad' film has always had to face. MOS has SR. BB had B&R. However the Nolan name should somewhat help with that, yet not completely.

Wolverine is going to face a GREAT challenge, seeing it possibly below F&F. While a great and fan favorite character, it's seen as the worst film in the series which it will need to battle against. They might be able to do that in the trailer by battling it somewhat, but it would have to be night and day level differences.

 

Sry moridin

The thing that played a factor this year that people don't always take into consideration is the timing and the competition.

Fast 6, is going for a slightly different genre group than Trek(though this isn't the traditional trek), but unlike last year, this year it's going to have to actually deal with a crowd hording film.
The thing about StarTrek before(and why it's box office was on the more humble side) is that people thought it was going to be more of that rich genre stuff they avoided their entire lives. Turns out now the world knows different. It's even accessible to the fast crowd.

Marvel always like to bunker their films in early may, looks like they are going to have tons of breathing space, possibly before and after IM3 to make money.

July is probably going to be a war zone this time.

And those November releases are brilliant. I remember walking into Lincoln and just looking around hoping for a big genre picture to get excited for...I had had was bond, and look what happened there.
Hunger Games was waiting for Twilight to end so they could start milking that spot.

 

I doubt The Hobbit will battle for the top spot, it'll do well, but I don't think it'll have enough crossover appeal. I don't see a lot of girls/women rushing out to see it.

I think the audience might have user fatigue and a case of warriness about the quality with the X-Men films, First Class showed that.

Star Trek will do well, but not near biggest take of the year, even the the expanded audience I don't think it's enough to get close to bigger movies.

 

Fast Five was very well recieved so I wouldn't underestimate it. The Wolverine is going to be hurt by the last movie's reception and Star Trek 2 is going to be helped by it's last film and 3D. I'm still taking a wait and see attitude to Superman and I'm hoping they move it from that death slot of June 14.

 

What's wrong with June 14?

 

Aside from animated movies mid-June usually isn't a prime spot for movies to do big business. At least not recently.

 

June usually is when the sleeper hits in the form of comedies and cartoons hit big. You notice all the big action flicks are usually released in May, July and August.

 

Yeah June is kind of a weird month. Early June is sometimes doable, mid to late June is not.

Best I can remember recently is Wanted in 2008 and even that didn't do that well.

The Incredible Hulk that year didn't make back it's budget domestically.

 

It's like June is the breather month. You go and watch some R-rated comedy or a Dreamworks/Pixar/Disney/Fox animated movie.

 

I really wouldn't use that because that movie had the "fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me" factor. If the last movie in a franchise is bad, inevitably the follow up will not do as well. If the last film in a franchise was well, the follow up will do equally as well if not higher.

People were turned off by The Hulk, thus The Incredible Hulk didn't do good.

It's also why Wolverine has a very hard uphill battle and I'm on the fence on the Hobbit - if audiences are just as mixed as critics? That won't bode well for the second film. The first one, yeah I see it probably doing great. I'd be surprised if doesn't. BUT, if the reaction is "this is a lower LOT" then yeah - the second will reflect that.

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I also thought the date sound familiar for some reason, lol.

JUNE 15 - BATMAN BEGINS

It faced a similar uphill battle that Batman did. Batman and Robin for Batman Begins. Superman Returns for Man of Steel. They're not looking to be top dog at box office, after Superman Returns that's just not in the deck for this film. What they're looking for is to return faith and trust to the Superman brand and then to capitalize on that with the sequels just like Batman did.

 

Superman Returns is not at all well loved.

 

Unsure where anyone said it was?

If you say me? I'm comparing it to BATMAN & ROBIN for crying out loud lol.

I'm saying June didn't kill Hulk - Hulk killed Hulk. People hated Hulk, thus "fool me once, shame on me. fool me twice, don't even both - I'm not going."

 

How do you guys think April's films will do?

Its kind of a weird genre mix with Oblivion, but then also two horror films, with Evil Dead and Lords of Salem. Lords will probably see only a very limited release knowing Anchor Bay. Evil Dead I think should have been scheduled for August. For whatever reason, horror films seem to do well then.

 

Would any of those films do big business had they been released during may or july?

honest question.

 

Not of that year. The Summer of 2008 was stacked, or maybe it just seemed that way because that was year I started seeing a lot more films than I had previously due to having a job and such. I honestly think Hulk would have done better in 09. Marvel Studios didn't have anything out that year, whereas in June of 08, Iron Man was still tearing it up to a certain degree, and TDK was not far off in the horizon. There seemed to be long stretches in July of 2009 where we had basically nothing, except crap like G-Force.