2013: The Re-Up (box office predictions)

[rayc1971]

Which movie will be counted as a big failure for 2013 ?

* Jack The Giant Slayer

* The Lone Ranger

* Pacific Rim

after earth has to be on this list too! with honorable mention r.i.p.d and white house down

 

[kalhawj]

I'd go so far as to say that Pacifim Rim could've been a hit with the general audience . This wasn't a case of fanboy expectation.
We aren't talking about Scott Pilgrim here.

Pacifim Rim was made for a broad audience.

I disagreed. It was made strictly for Fanboy. Great CGI + Action Sequence + Robot vs Monster in a brainless fight + no plot/story/Charactor development = Fanboy movie. It has nothing in this movie that overall GA would be loving it. Movie that are targeted for Fanyboy is always going to be doom unless it had a book to back it up prior to being release that GA liked from the start and wanted to see it regardless if it's bad or not... If PR had a strong story and plot like "Inception" + the CGI and action than we are talking about a BO hit and a new kic-A## trilogy...

 

[MrMaooz]

For Movie Industry, an Epic Summer for Blockbuster Flops

Hollywood is discovering that it’s not smart to release a bunch of $100 million movies at the same time.

Every summer brings with it an onslaught of action-heavy, special-effects-laden big-budget movies. But the summer of 2013 is different in that studios have gone over the top with an unusually large number of over-the-top productions, released in close proximity to each other. A condition that’s been dubbed as “summer blockbuster fatigue” has affected moviegoers, who aren’t heading to the theaters more often just because there are more films out there that cost $100 million or $200 to make.

The Hollywood Reporter declared the current season “the most crowded summer in the history for tentpoles,” a.k.a. the expensive, widely released breed of film that is supposed to justify its huge budgets with huger profits at theaters. But because the field is so crowded—and perhaps because many these films just aren’t that good—several expected summer blockbusters are shaping up as busts.

The season’s biggest flop is probably “The Long Ranger,” featuring Johnny Depp as Tonto, Jerry Bruckheimer as producer, and $225 million as a budget. Businessweek reported that Walt Disney will probably wind up taking a writedown of more than $100 million on the film. Mediocre ticket sales for big-budget movies like “Pacific Rim” and “White House Down” are likely to result in losses of tens of millions for studios as well.

Analysts and studio executives are blaming bad scheduling as the main culprit for underwhelming box office results. “The biggest issue is dating,” one studio head told Hollywood Reporter. “You had too many $100 million-plus movies, not to mention $200 million-plus movies, jammed on top of each other. There isn’t enough play time, and the result has been more movies that wipe out.”

And the result of this summer’s many big-budget busts is that studios are likely to be more careful about timing their releases, and also more likely to scale back on how often they take the risk of funding a $100 million or $200 million film, even if Johnny Depp or Will Smith is on board to star. “The trend is definitely to reduce tentpoles,” Bruce Nash, founder of the box-office sales tracking site The Numbers, said, according to CNBC. “One of the things we’re looking at as a company and is being talked about in the industry is that films are either huge hits or completely flop. There doesn’t seem to be much middle ground anymore. That puts huge pressure on the studios, particularly on franchise films.”

It shouldn’t really come as a surprise that the summer of 2013 is looking like a high point (low point?) for blockbuster flops. Before Memorial Day, many analysts and movie insiders were looking ahead and seeing far too many big-budget films competing for the attention of essentially the same movie goers. And with too many tentpoles being released in too short of a time period, it was inevitable that several came out as losers.

“All the studios have decided that big-event movies are a better business,” Doug Creutz, an entertainment analyst for Cowen & Company, told the New York Times in mid-May. “When everyone decides that, it’s a problem. Look at the history of motion pictures. There have been time periods when certain strategies worked, and, temporarily, the economics got better. Then the profits got competed away. So here we are again. There’s a glut.”

And here we now are, in the middle of the summer, seeing the effects of that glut.

http://business.time.com/2013/07/18/for-movie-industry-an-epic-summer-for-blockbuster-flops/

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

There were far too many films released and the films did hurt eachother. It was almost comical.

 

[Liam_H]

RIPD and RED 2 would have done so much better if they were released in the offseason like September/October or January/February. The former movie is obviously turd and the studio wanted to dump it but try to get something back. Unless Universal is gonna use the excuse, market too crowded for it to perform.

 

[MrMaooz]

What do you guys think this means for 2015?

 

[Liam_H]

Well we know movies are going to stay away from Avengers 2 and Star Wars 7. So I guess that's one way of avoiding the problem.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think the 2015 films will hurt eachother as well. No film is immune to competition.

 

[jmc]

This quote sums it up for me.

“When everyone decides that, it’s a problem. Look at the history of motion pictures. There have been time periods when certain strategies worked, and, temporarily, the economics got better. Then the profits got competed away. So here we are again. There’s a glut.”

100% correct.

 

[Liam_H]

Competition is certainly always a factor but if your product is so much more appealing than the alternative...

 

[jmc]

Competition is certainly always a factor but if your product is so much more appealing than the alternative...

Thing is films are eating each other in spite of how good they are.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

There were far too many films released and the films did hurt eachother. It was almost comical.

This.

It was like watching a a 5, 6 car pileup slowly happen with more cars possibly adding to the mayhem.

It's a good thing for Hollywood to scale back tentpoles because all they're doing right now is proving both Soderbergh's and Spielberg/Lucas's opinions about Hollywood right. They need to either scale back or take more risks with their scheduling. Movies can get to a billion outside the summer season, just look Avatar, Skyfall, and The Hobbit.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

There were far too many films released and the films did hurt eachother. It was almost comical.

Yes. Great for the moviegoers (well moviegoers with a lot of expendable income), crap for business. How everyone didn't see this coming, I don't know. 5 or 6 summer films this year could have been moved easily, and did much strong business. I still wonder what MoS and STID would have done if not for the huge pileup.

 

[jacobed]

Well we know movies are going to stay away from Avengers 2 and Star Wars 7. So I guess that's one way of avoiding the problem.

If there was a good movie after The Avengers, I think people would have easily gone to that instead. Avengers was lucky that there was nothing good in our theaters for at least a month after it came out.

 

[ShadowBoxer]

This summer has just been to crowded with movies. I can't remember a summer this crowded with big movies. Lets see

May

Iron Man 3

Star Trek Into Darkness

Great Gatsby

Fast and Furious 6

Hangover Part 3

June

Man of Steel

White House Down

Monsters University

World War Z

This is the End

July

Despicable Me 2

Lone Ranger

Pacific Rim

The Wolverine

R.I.P.D

The Conjuring

Red 2

August

Elysium

Kick Ass 2

I know I am missing some movies, but yea this summer season has been ridiculously crowded. And its clear some movies got hurt by the movies releasing a week or two apart.

 

[Quasimod0]

But now avengers 2 is going to be huge because most people who saw the first one liked it
And star wars 7 is almost a surefire hit

 

[MrMaooz]

Maybe this means we'll get more blockbuster movies in "trash" months like Jan/Feb or September.

 

[ShadowBoxer]

Maybe this means we'll get more blockbuster movies in "trash" months like Jan/Feb or September.

That would be a good thing. Some of the studios should have done that this year. Pacific Rim would have performed better if it was released in September or January or February of 2014. Those months are waste lands in terms of quality movie releases.

 

[terry78]

I think we'll get a couple movies in August that do much better than a lot of the ones released during the regular summer season. Also, The Long Ranger is going to be used for the porn parody, watch.

 

[MrMaooz]

I think we'll get a couple movies in August that do much better than a lot of the ones released during the regular summer season. Also, The Long Ranger is going to be used for the porn parody, watch.

Lol, Will Pacific Rim have a porn parody?

 

[MrMaooz]

But now avengers 2 is going to be huge because most people who saw the first one liked it
And star wars 7 is almost a surefire hit

I wonder how much that'll do. 1b is guaranteed.

 

[Liam_H]

Wouldn't be surprised if that approached $1 billion OS alone. Something I think Avengers 2 will certainly do.

 

[BestGirl]

There were far too many films released and the films did hurt eachother. It was almost comical.

It doesn't help that the quality of this year's summer blockbusters hasn't been particularly high.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It doesn't help that the quality of this year's summer blockbusters hasn't been particularly high.

This summer I got Iron Man 3, Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, The Lone Ranger, and Pacific Rim. Add to that the DM2 and MU. Still got The Wolverine and Elysium to come.

I'd say it has been one of the best summers I can ever remember.

 

[terry78]

Percy Jackson will be watched come next month for two giant reasons.