2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Marvin]

How is it hyperbolic? The writing in the Transformers is garbage. How is this deniable?

And why will people care for the characters? Because Joss Whedon wrote the script, not Michael Bay and friends.

And the idea that Marvels movies are nothing but adverts for the Avengers is laughable.

If I'm not mistaken, you compared the entire TF film series to this one Avengers trailer did you not? The hatred for Bay is strong around these parts but even that's a bit much. I seem to recall a lot of Spielberg laden credit for story/character elements in the first TF. Along with a supposed spot on characterization of Optimus Prime to boot.

Never asked why people will care for characters, I pointed out how anyone can see any sort of character work in this Trailer alone. There is almost zero context for anyone outside a little Rogers dialogue.
Moreover Bay doesn't write scripts, your issues with said stories really is misplaced. He just shows up collects a check and somehow makes the biggest films of the year with "no story"

As for the adverts comment, well that's Hyperbole for you. I'm sure I don't need to tell you anything about it.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I didn't see any great character moments in the trailer either and I never do in trailers in general.

 

[The Morningstar]

Cap's "trying to get me back in the world" gave us insight into his character. He's clearly jaded and unsure about it.

BW's "we're not trained for this" or whatever it was shows fear and is ironically a nice bit of meta commentary, considering all the *****ing about her and Hawkeye being in the movie amongst the likes of Hulk and Thor.

And Marvin i don't hate Bay. ****, The Rock is one of my favourite action movies ever. And i have a deep respect for him as an action director.

But yes, the writing in the Transformers movies is crap. And Optimus Prime isn't well characterised. He shouldn't be executing unarmed opponents. That wasn't the Optimus i remember. Megatron was also poorly done in 2 and 3. As was the other Decepticons. I mean Shockwave didn't even speak did he?

I will admit though, the bonding between Sam and Bee was good, specifically in the first movie.

 

[Marvin]

I'm not about to get in another bay discussion, I was merely pointing out the flaws in what you were saying as I saw them. As for Optimus, he changed as the war on earth went on, imagine that character work of some sort, who'd have thought.

Anyways, I just watch the avengers with outcast's bombs over baghdad track playing. Priceless.

 

[mclay18]

I also noticed Paramount's logo at the start there. Looks like the revenue for this film is going to be split in more way than just Sam Jackson, Disney and RDJ.

Hope it's worth it.

Paramount still gets their 8% of the box-office profits, only this time Disney is marketing and distributing it for them (and as part of the deal, Paramount's logo stays on this film and IM3). Paramount gets a minimum of $55M from Disney if the movie doesn't perform as expected, and gets more should it overperform. Disney doesn't care if their name isn't on the film itself, since they get the remaining 92% through owning Marvel.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Paramount still gets their 8% of the box-office profits, only this time Disney is marketing and distributing it for them (and as part of the deal, Paramount's logo stays on this film and IM3). Paramount gets a minimum of $55M from Disney if the movie doesn't perform as expected, and gets more should it overperform. Disney doesn't care if their name isn't on the film itself, since they get the remaining 92% through owning Marvel.

Insightful post.

 

[Punisher Rising]

But yes, the writing in the Transformers movies is crap. And Optimus Prime isn't well characterised. He shouldn't be executing unarmed opponents. That wasn't the Optimus i remember. Megatron was also poorly done in 2 and 3. As was the other Decepticons. I mean Shockwave didn't even speak did he?

It's putting it lightly to say Megatron was poorly done in 2 and 3. He was so badly presented in the entire trilogy, and The Fallen got even worse treatment in ROTF. For the title villain, he's hardly in the film and has no presence beyond his eerie voice.

 

[Selim844]

Wow, tempers are really flaring here. I like it.

I was not that impressed with this new trailer. Not saying it looked bad or anything, but I didn't have my mind blown like some other people. It kinda looked like (as many of you have already mentioned) the third act of Transformers 3. Although there was nothing on there that looked remotely as cool or epic as a transformer with tentacles tearing apart a skyscraper (fyi I think the Transformers movies are garbage). Avengers more and more looks like a fun time at the movies, as opposed to Batman 3 or Prometheus, which look like movie experiences...

I don't know if its intentional or not that it resembles Transformers 3 (I mean, Battleship looks like a carbon copy of T3, albeit at sea). But T3 followed T2, which made over $800m WW. And that's without the higher 3D ticket prices. The Avengers follows Iron Man 2 (which is the biggest Marvel hit), and that one only made $624m. Still big blockbuster numbers, but not huge. Heck, Mission Impossible 4 has made more that that. And Cap, Hulk and Thor aren't even in the same ballpark.

Don't get me wrong, I still think that Avengers will be a really big hit ($340m domestic, $750-800m WW are my predictions), but I cant see it breaking 1 billion.

And I still believe that the general public don't know that much about Avengers. I don't think it has that brand recognition.

 

[flickchick85]

I don't think Avengers will hit a billion unless it's just ridiculously, mind-blowingly awesome - the kind of movie that everyone needs to see even if they don't know what's going on. Which would be cool, but unlikely (though I do think it will still be pretty darn awesome). I'm expecting it to hit more around the $800m mark. It's got the imagery that brought in the crowds on Transformers, the RDJ factor that kept 'em coming for Iron Man, and it's hitting the May sweet spot. There's also the novelty factor - plenty of people who stayed at home for some of the Marvel movies but generally like superhero flicks are gonna check this one out just to see them all together. Plus, I have a feeling it could probably bring in more kids than the TF movies, too, as those were more "teen-friendly" than "family friendly" - I don't expect a lot of make-out scenes or gratuitous lingering T&A shots of Victoria's Secret models in this one, so it may get the approval of more parents.

 

[Selim844]

Hey what do I have to do to display a pic or a gif on the left-hand side??

 

[Marvin]

I don't think Avengers will hit a billion unless it's just ridiculously, mind-blowingly awesome - the kind of movie that everyone needs to see even if they don't know what's going on. Which would be cool, but unlikely (though I do think it will still be pretty darn awesome). I'm expecting it to hit more around the $800m mark. It's got the imagery that brought in the crowds on Transformers, the RDJ factor that kept 'em coming for Iron Man, and it's hitting the May sweet spot. There's also the novelty factor - plenty of people who stayed at home for some of the Marvel movies but generally like superhero flicks are gonna check this one out just to see them all together. Plus, I have a feeling it could probably bring in more kids than the TF movies, too, as those were more "teen-friendly" than "family friendly" - I don't expect a lot of make-out scenes or gratuitous lingering T&A shots of Victoria's Secret models in this one, so it may get the approval of more parents.

lingering shots of beautiful women( some half dressed others without dialogue), one need look no further than just about any marvel movie of the past few years, namely the iron man series, but I digress.

I think joss is going to bring something special to this film the likes of which marvel just hasn't had the direction to do in the past. It will no doubt be as watchable as the first IM, and with strong scale to boot.

 

[:eek:]

"Hunger Games" To Open Big

By Garth Franklin Thursday March 1st 2012 11:42AM
How highly anticipated is Lionsgate's "The Hunger Games"? Deadline reports that tracking numbers for the young adult novel adaptation several weeks out are very high.
With three weeks to go before release, the film is registering 23% ‘First Choice’ and 54% ’Definite Interest' - numbers even quite a few studio tentpoles can only dream of. Right now the film is on course for an opening above $70 million. Also, while the numbers skew towards young females, interest is strong across all quarters.

 

[:eek:]

Top 6 worldwide so far:

1. The Intouchables $247,8 million
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $240,5 million
3. The Secret World of Arrietty $141,6 million
4. Underworld Awakening $140,1 million
5. Safe House $136,9 million
6. The Vow $136 million

 

[kvz5]

The Vow $136 million

 

[Iceman]

"Hunger Games" To Open Big

By Garth Franklin Thursday March 1st 2012 11:42AM
How highly anticipated is Lionsgate's "The Hunger Games"? Deadline reports that tracking numbers for the young adult novel adaptation several weeks out are very high.
With three weeks to go before release, the film is registering 23% ‘First Choice’ and 54% ’Definite Interest' - numbers even quite a few studio tentpoles can only dream of. Right now the film is on course for an opening above $70 million. Also, while the numbers skew towards young females, interest is strong across all quarters.

$70m would be very nice!

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

What about Journey 2? Everyone was laughing at it opening day.

 

[flickchick85]

lingering shots of beautiful women( some half dressed others without dialogue), one need look no further than just about any marvel movie of the past few years, namely the iron man series, but I digress.

I genuinely don't remember this. At least no lingering music video-esque close-ups of their body parts while they stand there posing like pin-ups. But anyway, I didn't say Marvel didn't have them, I said Avengers probably won't have them because A.) I just don't see where those kinds of scenes would fit in with all the stuff they're already having to cram into that movie (I really expect it to get down to business from the first scene onward), and B.) Joss Whedon is making it.

I really hope the Hunger Games is a good movie, not because I have any vested interest the books (never read 'em), but because I hate when crappy movies are successful, and this will clearly be successful. I am encouraged by the premise and the general opinion that the source material's actually pretty decent unlike Twilight, so I'm optimistic.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I want Hunger Games to succeed because I want to see the masses get into dystopian sci fi with social commentary instead of crap like Twilight.

 

[:eek:]

Boxoffice.com surely thinks Hunger Games will be huge. They now believe it will open with $90 million and end with $225 million in total

 

[:eek:]

'The Lorax' Shatters Expectations
March 04, 2012 07:59 AM

by Phil Contrino
With $17.4 million on Friday and $31.3 million on Saturday, Dr. Seuss' The Lorax is off to an incredible star. According to Universal, here's what the animated flick will accomplish this weekend:
• Highest non-Sequel Animated/Family film opening (besting THE INCREDIBLES @ $70.5 million)
• Biggest opening weekend of 2012 (besting THE VOW @ $41.2 million)
• Biggest opening for a Universal Animated film (besting DESPICABLE ME @ $56.4 million)
• 4TH biggest Universal opener of all time (besting THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM @ $69.3 million)
• Biggest 2012 weekend opening for a Universal film (besting SAFE HOUSE @$40.2 million)
• Biggest opening for a Chris Meledandri film (besting ICE AGE: THE MELTDOWN @ $68 million)
• Biggest opening for a Chris Renaud film (besting DESPICABLE ME @ $56.4 million)
• Biggest opening weekend for a film based on a Dr. Suess book (besting Universal's own GRINCH STOLE CRHISTMAS @ $55.1 million)
The audience breakdown for The Lorax is 55% kids 12 and under (along with their parents) and 55% female. Word-of-mouth is strong thanks to a 78% approval rating from more than 13,700 Flixster users.

 

[The Morningstar]

lingering shots of beautiful women( some half dressed others without dialogue), one need look no further than just about any marvel movie of the past few years, namely the iron man series, but I digress.

I think joss is going to bring something special to this film the likes of which marvel just hasn't had the direction to do in the past. It will no doubt be as watchable as the first IM, and with strong scale to boot.

No there isn't. There isn't really anything like that in any of the Marvel movies.

Unless you count the dancers on stage at the Expo in IM2. Which anyone who isn't extremely prudish wouldn't count.

 

[Evil Twin]

No there isn't. There isn't really anything like that in any of the Marvel movies.

Unless you count the dancers on stage at the Expo in IM2. Which anyone who isn't extremely prudish wouldn't count.

One could also count the stewardesses/strippers in Iron Man.

I don't think it's a recurring theme, so much as it reflects Tony Stark's flaws. Certainly I don't remember anything comparable in Captain America or Thor.

That said, if you want to compare some objectification of women and some glorification of the military between Transformers and Iron Man, there's a case to be made. That said, Iron Man has much better written characters and mostly sound reasoning for how those elements reflect the protagonists story, while Bay seems to throw it in gratuitously.

 

[DACrowe]

One could also count the stewardesses/strippers in Iron Man.

I don't think it's a recurring theme, so much as it reflects Tony Stark's flaws. Certainly I don't remember anything comparable in Captain America or Thor.

It's there, but they're shown, like the Iron Man Rockettes, iin long wide shots and are on screen very briefly. We see Tony sleep with Leslie Bibb's character, but it is done with all the seductiveness of a Lifetime movie.

Marvel has gone out of its way to make sure that even when playing that up for Tony Stark's character, they try to keep things sanitized. While Bay is the reverse. He tries to objectify women and sexualize women about as far as the PG-13 rating will take him. This is a man who cast Megan Fox after he made her wash his car in a bikini, chose her replacement from a Victoria's Secret commercial, and publicly dissed Kate Beckinsale for "not being sexy."

I'm not defending Marvel so much, as saying they're not as chauvinistic and sexist as Bay has been in his movies. But it sells tickets, I suppose.

 

[Punisher Rising]

I think the Avengers will definitely be a very big movie this Summer and may only be topped by TDKR in terms of grosses. I guess we'll see when they're both out this Summer.

 

[mclay18]

I think the Avengers will definitely be a very big movie this Summer and may only be topped by TDKR in terms of grosses. I guess we'll see when they're both out this Summer.

It honestly depends on how good they are, and what the word-of-mouth will carry throughout the next several weeks following opening weekend. There's a very good chance they'll both overperform... especially considering how well other movies are doing right now in the off-season.