2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Liam_H]

Why don't you expect The Hobbit to have a huge opening?

Near $140 or $150 million huge? Nope I don't expect that. But it doesn't need that. If the quality of the movie is the same as the previous three then it can open with $100 million but have very little drops plus the holiday push. That will make its total gross pass anything that opens that high.

 

[rayc1971]

Even if Avengers sells the same number of tickets as IM2 it'll still approach 150 million thanks to inflation and 3D.

your right im2 did 128 avengers will dust that no problem.one guy on here said avengers is im3 so it wont be huge wrong this is the first superhero team up film all kinds of people are going to go see it and they are already makin im3. avengers minimum 150.

 

[Marvin]

hunger games' number are slightly inflated are they not?

 

[Liam_H]

In what sense? This did not have 3D, while IMAX is not widespread enough to make a difference. Its Friday to Saturday drop was the 2nd lowest for these type of openings. So there was fanboy rush but this is drawing in more of the general audience. That should mean pretty good legs or the fans are just repeatedly seeing it over and over.

 

[rayc1971]

In what sense? This did not have 3D while, IMAX is not widespread enough to make a difference. Its Friday to Saturday drop was the 2nd lowest for these type of openings. So there was fanboy rush but this is drawing in more of the general audience. That should mean pretty good legs or the fans are just repeatedly seeing it over and over.

yeah your right how can he say its inflated when its the first film of the franchise

 

[Marvin]

regular tickets cost more now then they did when the original twilight and more so original potter came out...gone with the wind etc.

 

[marvelman2006]

Nah the Hunger Games numbers are just simply impressive for a new movie that isn't a remake or a sequel and a new movie. No 3D gimmick, just promoted as an event you have to see in theaters and didn't lie about what it really was and in turn this is what you get. John Carter and Disney could learn a few lessons here.

 

[mclay18]

No way TDKR makes $200 million its opening weekend.

It could get close. $175M-$180M opening weekend isn't out of reach, provided the movie is anywhere close as good as TDK. I think it could break the midnight show record by at least $10M, at the very least.

it does if its 3 hrs thats one less showing its been proven true.

When Titanic came out, theaters added a midnight show to get in four showings of the movie per day (at least during the weekends). I'm sure they did the same for the LOTR trilogy as well.

The Dark Knight Rises will get close.

I think it could break it, without the 3D surcharge alone by at least a few million.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I just get this sinking feeling Rises will be like Spidey 2 compared to Spidey 1 in BO. TDK/Spidey was a perfect storm. It'll be hard to replicate.

 

[Liam_H]

It could get close. $175M-$180M opening weekend isn't out of reach, provided the movie is anywhere close as good as TDK. I think it could break the midnight show record by at least $10M, at the very least.

You really think TDKR is gonna make $53 million at midnight? That is a lot, I mean that alone would rank pretty high on single days alone.

 

[mclay18]

You really think TDKR is gonna make $53 million at midnight? That is a lot, I mean that alone would rank pretty high on single days alone.

Yeah. TDK attracted all four quadrants, and that goodwill built with that movie's success will ensure a bigger midnight turnout (anyone who thinks TDKR won't score that much is kidding themselves). Maybe not $43M worth, but I think it'd crush the Twilight midnight openings (at least over $30M).

I think if the second and final trailer plays extremely well, TDKR will be the film to beat this year:

Midnight show grosses: $33M-$38M
Opening day gross: $75M-$89M
Opening weekend gross: $170M-$185M
Final domestic tally: $425M-$510M
Worldwide gross: $1.2B

 

[rayc1971]

Yeah. TDK attracted all four quadrants, and that goodwill built with that movie's success will ensure a bigger midnight turnout (anyone who thinks TDKR won't score that much is kidding themselves). Maybe not $43M worth, but I think it'd crush the Twilight midnight openings (at least over $30M).

I think if the second and final trailer plays extremely well, TDKR will be the film to beat this year:

Midnight show grosses: $33M-$38M
Opening day gross: $75M-$89M
Opening weekend gross: $170M-$185M
Final domestic tally: $425M-$510M
Worldwide gross: $1.2B

your numbers are pretty spot on people are kidding if they think less. this is the film to beat this summer!

 

[Marvin]

TDKR has a shot at midnight records for the simple fact that it will no doubt be front loaded. Word of mouth will be key though.
People talking about if it's actually better the the last one will be the deciding factor to the record imo.

 

[DACrowe]

Very few people were saying Spider-Man 3 was better than its predecessors yet it surely outgrossed them and claimed the record that year.

 

[rayc1971]

Very few people were saying Spider-Man 3 was better than its predecessors yet it surely outgrossed them and claimed the record that year.

yup and alot of people hate spidey3 but it didnt stop it from box office recordst:

 

[rayc1971]

dknr 3 day weekend 180 to 200mill is in range.

 

[mclay18]

Very few people were saying Spider-Man 3 was better than its predecessors yet it surely outgrossed them and claimed the record that year.

I hope TDKR breaks that third movie curse. I really do.

And speaking of comic book movies, here's my predictions on The Avengers:

Midnight grosses: $8M-$12M
Opening day: $45M-$50M
Opening weekend: $128-$140M
Domestic total: $325M-$375M
International tally: $700M-$850M

Again, The Avengers will be an unqualified success (as TDKR will definitely be). Whether it will be as well-received as the first IM or middling like Thor, CA and TIH did is yet to be seen. I hope both films meet expectations and overperform at the box office.

 

[EML420]

The Avengers Dark Knighr Rises they dont have to make a billion dollars to be considered great I feel like thats really want some people want to validate them has good movies.


To me it seems that only like the comic crowd thinks Spider-Man 3 is a bad movie for the most part the general audience liked it.

 

[Liam_H]

Very few people were saying Spider-Man 3 was better than its predecessors yet it surely outgrossed them and claimed the record that year.

What? Yea Spider-Man 3 claimed the best opening of the three but that was due to the good faith built up by the first two. The quality showed when its total domestic take dropped considerably from the 2nd one let alone the first.

 

[Call Me Darkman]

Worldwide, Spidey 3 made more than the first two. Overseas audiences definitely weren't as critical as American viewers. The same could be said about Pirates 4 and those Ice Age films. That's the challenge in predicting box office grosses these days. International audiences are no longer on the same page as us. Third world countries are getting brand new theaters, so they are not as picky as us. For them, huge digital screens and big comfy chairs are a new thing. So, they'll happily watch whatever crap Hollywood throws their way. I mean, even John Carter is doing decent business overseas.

 

[cherokeesam]

Very few people were saying Spider-Man 3 was better than its predecessors yet it surely outgrossed them and claimed the record that year.

Comparing the Spidey franchise to the Batman franchise, though, there's one important distinction: everyone went to the Spidey films to see the hero. In TDK, everyone went to see the villain(s). No way in hell do a controversial Bane and a socio-politicized Catwoman remotely attract as much of an audience as Heath Ledger's Joker did.

 

[CashforStash]

My guesses so don't take them as money on the table bets.

Avengers : Probably spider-man 3 numbers.

TDKR: I really want to say higher then a billion, but I can't really see it right now, maybe when I actually start to hear people I know in person get siked for it I'll start to belive it, but right now I can see a little over 900 mil WW.

ASM: Ahh, good ol' Spidey. This one is going to be a wild card for me. I can honestly picture this movie coming close to TDKR and everybody on SHH going "what the flying eff?" because the Asian market will gobble the film up, and a lot of my friends who watched the trailer agreed it looks good. I can picture on par with Avengers.

The Hobbit: I'll have to see as I get closer to release date, but it COULD hit a bil.

I have a feeling we could have a bil or two this year, but I can't decide which.

Something tells me TDKR, ASM, and Avengers will all have similar numbers.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Comparing the Spidey franchise to the Batman franchise, though, there's one important distinction: everyone went to the Spidey films to see the hero. In TDK, everyone went to see the villain(s). No way in hell do a controversial Bane and a socio-politicized Catwoman remotely attract as much of an audience as Heath Ledger's Joker did.

This.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think it'll still make close to a billion though. Around the 900 million mark.

 

[CashforStash]

I think it'll still make close to a billion though. Around the 900 million mark.

Yeah thats what said earlier, I can see it doing what TDK did in it's first run in July-September, then it being re-released to make it to the good old billion.