2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[LegendaryCaleb]

Marc Webb honestly has to reinvent the wheel with this one, because the spectacle of seeing Spider-Man done in live action has already been showcased. The ante has to be upped.

The only way to do that is to showcase good acting and a top of line story for once...since Raimi was good at...visuals and stuff...

 

[Octoberist]

I thought Raimi did a good job of showing NYC life in Spider-Man 2. But since Webb is much younger and hipper I think he will do a better job.

 

[Octoberist]

People are saying ASM may underperform but I think it'll do fine. Again kids looovee spider-man and I'd the movie rocks, then so does re profit.

 

[chaseter]

I thought Raimi did a good job of showing NYC life in Spider-Man 2. But since Webb is much younger and hipper I think he will do a better job.

Spider-Man is a hipster now?

 

[chaseter]

I thought the budget was 220 million?

Wouldn't shock me. I don't remember the actual number. I just remember early reports were that it was 80 million and every laughed at it and then a few months ago someone that worked on the movie spilled the beans and it was a helluva lot more than 80 million and they gave a number...but I forgot.

 

[Armored Avenger]

Spider-Man is a hipster now?

 

[Bruce Malone]

I wonder how long this thread is going to last? This is pretty much the 2012 summer box office thread a year early.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I should start a 2013 thread!

Pacific Rim is going to destroy everything.

 

[Matt]

Marc Webb honestly has to reinvent the wheel with this one, because the spectacle of seeing Spider-Man done in live action has already been showcased. The ante has to be upped.

Sadly, I do not think that the Lizard is the way to do it. The story has already been told in SM2, which is why Raimi opted not to use the Lizard in SM4, a decision for which he gets much criticism. What fans fail to realize is that the arc of a scientist whose creation turned him into an out of control monster had already been explored in the series. SM2's villain was an amalgamation of Doctor Octopus and the Lizard in the same way that Iron Man 2's villain was an amalgamation of Whiplash and Crimson Dynamo. Raimi using Lizard in SM4 would be the equivilant to using Crimson Dynamo in Iron Man 3. Raimi made the right choice in not using the Lizard in his SM4 plot. Sadly, Webb has made the very mistake that Raimi had avoided.

You're right that they need to reinvent the wheel, and I do not see how recycling the plot of SM2 will do that. Especially since the Lizard has the potential to be an absolute disaster on screen. Green Lantern has shown us just how messy and bad CGI can be when you have a director who does not know how to use it properly (Webb has never attempted an effects heavy film before). Factor in that the Lizard by his very nature is essentially a sci-fi-y, 1950s B-movie monster who may not appeal to modern audiences who tend to favor more grounded superhero films....it could get messy.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Sadly, I do not think that the Lizard is the way to do it. The story has already been told in SM2, which is why Raimi opted not to use the Lizard in SM4, a decision for which he gets much criticism. What fans fail to realize is that the arc of a scientist whose creation turned him into an out of control monster had already been explored in the series. SM2's villain was an amalgamation of Doctor Octopus and the Lizard in the same way that Iron Man 2's villain was an amalgamation of Whiplash and Crimson Dynamo. Raimi using Lizard in SM4 would be the equivilant to using Crimson Dynamo in Iron Man 3. Raimi made the right choice in not using the Lizard in his SM4 plot. Sadly, Webb has made the very mistake that Raimi had avoided.

You're right that they need to reinvent the wheel, and I do not see how recycling the plot of SM2 will do that. Especially since the Lizard has the potential to be an absolute disaster on screen. Green Lantern has shown us just how messy and bad CGI can be when you have a director who does not know how to use it properly (Campbell has never attempted an effects heavy film before). Factor in that the Lizard by his very nature is essentially a sci-fi-y, 1950s B-movie monster who may not appeal to modern audiences who tend to favor more grounded superhero films....it could get messy.

I've been saying this for years in all the Lizard threads, but no one listens to me

Plus, Lizard was at one point in SM2 in the early scripts, and you can see it when you watch SM2. You can tell that subplot got merged into Ock, and it worked for SM2 very well. Plus, Connors has no build up before becoming the Lizard in this one. He is already the Lizard or quickly changes. With a new cast, a lot of our sympathy we have for him is not there. With Baker's Connors, we knew him. We liked him. That would have had more drama. Doing it in this movie I don't see working, or getting us to care like building up over an entire film to the Lizard would have.

 

[Octoberist]

how do you know he's already the Lizard?

 

[Infinity9999x]

I've been saying this for years in all the Lizard threads, but no one listens to me

Plus, Lizard was at one point in SM2 in the early scripts, and you can see it when you watch SM2. You can tell that subplot got merged into Ock, and it worked for SM2 very well. Plus, Connors has no build up before becoming the Lizard in this one. He is already the Lizard or quickly changes. With a new cast, a lot of our sympathy we have for him is not there. With Baker's Connors, we knew him. We liked him. That would have had more drama. Doing it in this movie I don't see working, or getting us to care like building up over an entire film to the Lizard would have.

What exactly makes you think this? I doubt it's going to be any faster then Ock's transformation in SM2 (which was pretty quick when you get down to it. Ock had...what? Two scenes before becoming Doc Ock?) And that worked fine. (I mean, I personally wasn't a big fan of the way pre-Dock Ock was portrayed, but I can't deny it was done well).

Connors, if anything, will have more time to be developed as a character then Ock did. If they do decide to do another Origin, he'll have time to be set up as a teacher in that, and probably won't fully become the Lizard until after the origin is told.

 

[kedrell]

With a 150 million dudget ASM would need at least 500 million worlwide to be profitable, so Iron Man numbers would be acceptable (580-620 m).

I don't see how this math works in any way. Hardly any big budget films would be profitable if that were the case.

With a $150M production budget(which is a totally reasonable budget for a film like this, IMO) then I'd think it would be in the black after it made $300M world wide. That is, unless they pull a GL and spend $75-150M over the normal $50-75M advertising budget(which I don't see happening). If they spent $150M to make it and $200M to market it(a preposterous sum) then I could see your $500M WW minimum guess as being true.

 

[Octoberist]

I think some here are being too dismissive of Amazing Spider-Man. While I am skeptical of tr project, I think the cast and crew are talented and make something special out of it.

And I'll say it again: People in general love Spider-Man as a character. People will flock to it.

 

[kedrell]

Spider-man will not flop or bomb(will not turn a profit = Green Lantern, Speed Racer). It's even hard to see it being a disappointment financially(wherein it doesn't become profitable until home video) in the way that stuff like B&R, AngHulk, & even TIH were. ASM will turn a profit theatrically. It may not turn a huge profit there like the early Raimi Spidey films did, but a profit will be earned.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't see how this math works in any way. Hardly any big budget films would be profitable if that were the case.

With a $150M production budget(which is a totally reasonable budget for a film like this, IMO) then I'd think it would be in the black after it made $300M world wide. That is, unless they pull a GL and spend $75-150M over the normal $50-75M advertising budget(which I don't see happening). If they spent $150M to make it and $200M to market it(a preposterous sum) then I could see your $500M WW minimum guess as being true.

The studio only gets roughly half the worldwide box office gross and the marketing budget for tent pole releases usually reach 100 million.

 

[Spider-Fan]

how do you know he's already the Lizard?

Guess, really. The two options are short build up to Lizard or he is already the Lizard. I think Connors becoming the Lizard in a short span is a waste of his character. Plus, as noted, this story was covered with Ock.

What exactly makes you think this? I doubt it's going to be any faster then Ock's transformation in SM2 (which was pretty quick when you get down to it. Ock had...what? Two scenes before becoming Doc Ock?) And that worked fine. (I mean, I personally wasn't a big fan of the way pre-Dock Ock was portrayed, but I can't deny it was done well).

Connors, if anything, will have more time to be developed as a character then Ock did. If they do decide to do another Origin, he'll have time to be set up as a teacher in that, and probably won't fully become the Lizard until after the origin is told.

Difference is Ock was still Ock the person, even when evil. The Lizard becomes a monster. That takes Connors out of the equation when he is the Lizard. While yes, they occupy the same body, the Lizard is a seperate consciousness from Connors. Unlike Ock, who yes, turned evil but was still a man who we saw slowly become more evil. There is a difference in how these characters are approached.

 

[kedrell]

The studio only gets roughly half the worldwide box office gross and the marketing budget for tent pole releases usually reach 100 million.

I think $100M for marketing is rather high. Most I've heard range between $50-75M. I also don't think it's just a 50% split with theater owners. I think it's a staggered % with studios getting a greater amount early on and that % decreasing after the 1st couple of weeks. It's different for every movie so nailing it down it just more trouble that it's worth so that's why the general 2X of the production budget is used. It may not be accurate for absolutely every movie(especailly ones like GL who spend waaaay too much $ on marketing) but on the whole it works as long as ths studio has been responsible with it's ad budget.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Yeah for most tentpoles it's $50-75 million and for the ones that a guaranteed to bring in the money it gets bigger.

 

[LegendaryCaleb]

the reason ock had already taken lizards story in raimis series is because he was done wrong...ock is an evil scientist mastermind who has metal arms...no sympathy for the character...hes just a crazy awesome villain...so thats why lizard shouldnt be too bad as a start off villain for the series and will put butts in the seats...they can do one of the best villains properly later this series


not that i hate raimis doc ock(molina rocked)...i just think its a mixture of lizard and ock and i want the true ock

 

[kedrell]

Not to mention that Ock & Lizard are very different visually. That'll be a big plus.



But I still say Kraven+Lizard would have been the best way to go.

 

[Asteroid-Man]

The Hobbit will underperform. It does good but not LOTR good.

You are crazy.

 

[DACrowe]

I dunno, three Spider-Man reboots in a period of 15 years would be a bit much, IMO. I think if ASM is not a success (and mind you, not a success in the sense that Tron Legacy was successful but a success that equates to the expectations of a Spider-Man movie), it will be awhile before we see the wallcrawler on the big screen again.

ASM will at least cross $200 million. That means if Marvel somehow magically got the rights back after 2012, it will be good enough for them to not reboot. Now, if the movie is somehow really bad....I dunno. I hope it's not. But Marvel knows Spidey is their flagship, so they would probably just recast him for Avengers 2 and use that ease him into their own franchise films, maybe? They're not going to not make Spider-Man movies.

I do think it is too early for a full reboot. I mean SM1 told the origin pretty damn well and ASM's biggest problem is having to redo it. I think it would have been wiser to just set in college a few years after he became Spidey (kind of like how B'89 handled the origin) and go from there. But I don't see ASM flopping. Not doing as well as the Raimi films due to it being so recent? Possible, but unless ASM is worse than SM3, I can't imagine it doing bad enough to not warrant a sequel at whatever studio the property is in a few years.

But here's a scary thought: what if Sony really does sell Spidey....to Fox? Imagine that.

 

[Spider-Fan]

ASM will at least cross $200 million. That means if Marvel somehow magically got the rights back after 2012, it will be good enough for them to not reboot. Now, if the movie is somehow really bad....I dunno. I hope it's not. But Marvel knows Spidey is their flagship, so they would probably just recast him for Avengers 2 and use that ease him into their own franchise films, maybe? They're not going to not make Spider-Man movies.

I do think it is too early for a full reboot. I mean SM1 told the origin pretty damn well and ASM's biggest problem is having to redo it. I think it would have been wiser to just set in college a few years after he became Spidey (kind of like how B'89 handled the origin) and go from there. But I don't see ASM flopping. Not doing as well as the Raimi films due to it being so recent? Possible, but unless ASM is worse than SM3, I can't imagine it doing bad enough to not warrant a sequel at whatever studio the property is in a few years.

But here's a scary thought: what if Sony really does sell Spidey....to Fox? Imagine that.

 

[DACrowe]

What in the world is everyone smoking? Spider-Man is going to make insane amounts of money. You're grossly underestimating it.

- Spider-Man 3 left a terrible taste in everyone's mouth.
- The entire Raimi/Maguire formula was getting stale and monotonous.
- Kirsten Dunst was annoying.
- The series had absolutely no direction to go after 3. It was stuck, and needed to be rebooted.
- Vulture and Black Cat were rumored characters, and you can't sell a huge movie after you already used Green Goblin, Doc Ock and Venom.

- Andrew Garfield is an up-and-coming star. He's slowly getting bigger, and The Social Network helped that.
- It has a smaller budget, which helps gain more profit.
- Spider-Man is Spider-Man. People will flock to it. It doesn't need to be "introduced" to anyone like Iron Man was. People know this character.

Disagree. I thought doing the marriage, death of Aunt May (a la ASM #400) and a Lizard/KLH story would have been obviously epic and a perfect swan song. However, the crappy script that Raimi walked away from sounded horrible. But that may have been from studio interference, hence Raimi's departure from the series.