2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Can Underworld 4 even underperform? it's not like the franchise was ever making Twilight style money.

Iron man 1 and 2 couldn't even crack 400mil internationally and the much loved TDK made less than Spider-Man 3 overseas. I'm sorry but I do not see 1 bil for The Avengers because it's overseas numbers will not be large enough. Even if it makes 400mil domestically, it's hard to see how it would do 600mil internationally when Spider-Man 3 (coming off of a well recieved movie) and TDK couldn't pull in those types of numbers.

And that average Avengers trailer sure didn't show any Transformers style action.

 

[Zant]

Looking at what the overseas market has done this year I am very sure Avengers and TDKR will make a lot more internationally

 

[Zant]

Oops I meant to say last year

 

[Pittman4Two]

That's because it's coming out in 2013. It was pushed back.

Thanks for the clarification. Probably a good idea, huh? (to push it back)

 

[The Morningstar]

Can Underworld 4 even underperform? it's not like the franchise was ever making Twilight style money.

Iron man 1 and 2 couldn't even crack 400mil internationally and the much loved TDK made less than Spider-Man 3 overseas. I'm sorry but I do not see 1 bil for The Avengers because it's overseas numbers will not be large enough. Even if it makes 400mil domestically, it's hard to see how it would do 600mil internationally when Spider-Man 3 (coming off of a well recieved movie) and TDK couldn't pull in those types of numbers.

And that average Avengers trailer sure didn't show any Transformers style action.

The second Avengers trailer needs to blow people away, for sure. It needs to have things like Hulk vs Thor, Iron Man in dog fights with alien invaders, Captain America kicking alien ass etc.

Basically, it needs to be full of money shots.

 

[Evil Twin]

It could reach that mark in much the same way Transformers does. A big, loud, SFX laden disaster movie. But with well liked superheroes.

I forsee Marvel marketing it as such. A disaster movie like your ID-4s, your Dark of the Moon's etc. But with Iron Man, Thor, Captain America and Hulk.

That's basically a license to print money right there.

Joss Whedon has none of the big spectacle chops of Michael Bay. Bay makes awful movies, but they look great and cut great trailers and commercials.

 

[jmc]

The second Avengers trailer needs to blow people away, for sure. It needs to have things like Hulk vs Thor, Iron Man in dog fights with alien invaders, Captain America kicking alien ass etc.

Basically, it needs to be full of money shots.

I don't see why it needs to ruin the movie by having so many money shots. I honestly don't know what that does to sell the movie anymore. TDK basically had one money shot in its entire trailer and is the talk of the internet still, I think it's actually got to do the opposite of money shots, it's actually gotta show there's some semblance of something deeper.

Joss Whedon has none of the big spectacle chops of Michael Bay. Bay makes awful movies, but they look great and cut great trailers and commercials.

As much as I despise the man Bay knows how to sell crap. I've always said he is the cinematic equivalent of McDonalds, and people love McDonalds.

 

[Liam_H]

Looking at what the overseas market has done this year I am very sure Avengers and TDKR will make a lot more internationally

Those movies were already established franchises and 3D helped push it even higher. Avengers will be in 3D but TDKR won't.

 

[The Morningstar]

I don't see why it needs to ruin the movie by having so many money shots. I honestly don't know what that does to sell the movie anymore. TDK basically had one money shot in its entire trailer and is the talk of the internet still, I think it's actually got to do the opposite of money shots, it's actually gotta show there's some semblance of something deeper.

As much as I despise the man Bay knows how to sell crap. I've always said he is the cinematic equivalent of McDonalds, and people love McDonalds.

People ain't going to go see Avengers to see something deep. They are going to see it for insane action and to see beloved characters kicking ass, just like Bay's Transformers movies.

Marvel need to market it like a disaster movie with superheroes. That'll bring in coin.

But yea i'm not fully behind Whedon. In all honesty i've never been impressed with anything of his. Seems because he is a comic book geek fans give him a free pass. He needs to make something special with Avengers. I'm sure he'll get that team dynamic right, but as an actual director/lensman, he leaves a lot to be desired for me.

Now, Brad Bird doing Avengers? Holy **** that would be awesome.

 

[Marvin]

As much as I despise the man Bay knows how to sell crap. I've always said he is the cinematic equivalent of McDonalds, and people love McDonalds.

Actually given the aim of the film and specifically in the spectacle department, bays work would be on the higher end of the spectrum relative to spectacle summer fare that is more on the forgettable side.

If it wasn't for the name and Joss, I would see nothing worth while in the Avengers ad.

 

[flickchick85]

I personally don't WANT "Transfomers-style" action in the Avengers movie or trailers, since I found the extensive action sequences in the last 2 Transformers movies to be literally headache-inducing. The whole "giant CGI-creations making large scale destruction" aesthetic lost its awe-factor about 2 movies back for me. I'd prefer the action scenes to be of the M:I4-variety - cleanly shot, regular speed, ensemble-driven.

 

[Marvin]

I personally don't WANT "Transfomers-style" action in the Avengers movie or trailers, since I found the extensive action sequences in the last 2 Transformers movies to be literally headache-inducing. The whole "giant CGI-creations making large scale destruction" aesthetic lost its awe-factor about 2 movies back for me. I'd prefer the action scenes to be of the M:I4-variety - cleanly shot, regular speed, ensemble-driven.

Funny enough whenever producers attempted that in the TF series fan(boy)s everywhere cried out for more cg constructs.

Everything has it's place, I personally can't enjoy a star trek fight without some cg, nor a spiderman one at this point. On a side point, if you "literally" got a headache watching TF, you might want to avoid a bunch of other films shot similarly but worthy of much praise it seems.

 

[DACrowe]

I think Whedon will surprise everyone with what he brings to the table when TA came out. If someone can cut through the Marvel Studios suffocating formula, he can.

With that said, TA at best will finish third for 2012. That's not a bad thing, but the characters don't have the broad appeal of Batman or hobbits and novelty will not trump Nolan's trilogy closer domestically or a fantasy prequel to LOTR oversees, in my opinion.

 

[Marvin]

The question is weather RDJ's tony stark has lost it's novelty. Cause if it hasn't I can't see anyone taking more advantage of him than Whedon.

I'm actually curious if any of those films next year will beat TF let alone Harry Potters new benchmarks.

 

[terry78]

Whedon should automatically get some confidence due to his comic writing stints at Marvel and his own indie stuff. He gets the dynamic that's going to be needed when it comes to all these type A personas in the same room and on the battlefield. Everybody wants to be the guy in charge which causes nothing but friction at first.

 

[ShadowBoxer]

The Dark Knight Rises, Amazing Spider Man, and The Avengers are my most anticipated movies this year without question. I am sure all three with make a lot of money,but I don't think any of them will break records ( not even TDKR).

I am kinda worried that audiences are gonna get tired of the super hero genre. With constant super hero movie releases every year, I don't know how long it will hold the main stream audiences attention.

So we could see a drop in ticket sales for movies like TDKR, and Spider Man etc. Not to mention, higher ticket prices and the economy could keep people away from theaters as well.

 

[Marvin]

Hobbit will do as well as the 2 towers I think. 10 years later and it's clout with the young audience can't be what it once was when it was rolling full steam. Especially with a new cast and an old one shoe horned in. Then again the 3D does wonders for the international market these days. It might pull "Strange tides" numbers but without Jack Sparrow...who's to say. I just think it's one of those cases of if it had come out 7 years earlier the hype would be a real force.

The second sequel to bats won't out gross the first. Hathaway and Hardy don't seem to be bringing the heat Ledger and his title did. And the film won't receive an oscar boost on that front either. Time will tell though.

Avengers will be Marvel(studio)s biggest so far. Take that for what it's worth. The down side to this that no one seems to be talking about is that is will be a Marvel Exec's wet dream. A movie about shield and cameo's galore. Gone are the days of Tony stark trapped in a cave and fully the development that ensued. If only Whedon had gotten to do a solo character film instead. Whedon on Spiderman would have been swell. Whedon won't only be fighting with execs on this picture but with actors too(starting with Johanson).

Spiderman is my dark horse. It will either do really well(not better than the previous ones) or really bad. Either way it will fully capitalize on the 3D boost, and in all markets too.

I'm curious to see how John Carter and Battleship do.

 

[flickchick85]

Funny enough whenever producers attempted that in the TF series fan(boy)s everywhere cried out for more cg constructs.

Everything has it's place, I personally can't enjoy a star trek fight without some cg, nor a spiderman one at this point. On a side point, if you "literally" got a headache watching TF, you might want to avoid a bunch of other films shot similarly but worthy of much praise it seems.

I did literally get a headache, but I think the main cause was the noise. Those films are so damn noisy. Or the combo of the noise with those visuals, because I have no problem watching the Bourne movies, for example, which are often cited as "headache-inducing." And I don't remember the producers of the TF series ever attempting the kind of action I'm talking about.

I agree about Star Trek, but I think Spider-man could be done with less CGI, and I'm hoping we'll be getting some of that with TAS.

 

[jmc]

People ain't going to go see Avengers to see something deep. They are going to see it for insane action and to see beloved characters kicking ass, just like Bay's Transformers movies.

Marvel need to market it like a disaster movie with superheroes. That'll bring in coin.

But yea i'm not fully behind Whedon. In all honesty i've never been impressed with anything of his. Seems because he is a comic book geek fans give him a free pass. He needs to make something special with Avengers. I'm sure he'll get that team dynamic right, but as an actual director/lensman, he leaves a lot to be desired for me.

Now, Brad Bird doing Avengers? Holy **** that would be awesome.

Doing that is only going to show us what we already know, it's not going to bring in people who are on the fence. Avengers is not the Transformers, I'm kinda sick of people using Transformers as some sort of reference when it's a different beast compared to superheroes. It's giant robots beating the crap out of each other.

 

[Hush]

Well judging by The Devil Insides HUGE opening for a Horror movie, which are admittedly front loaded out the ass, this year at the cinema may not be too shabby outside the huge tentpole releases either.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

ScreenRant posted a nice guide to upcoming films in 2012. Looks like a pretty good year.

http://screenrant.com/2012-movie-preview-release-dates-kofi-145310/

 

[Fenrir]

The Dark Knight Rises midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA.

Anyone who still maintains that The Avengers or The Hobbit can even match, let alone eclipse TDKR this year, or said TDK made all that money just because Ledger died better prepare themselves to feast on some lovely crow.

 

[Hush]

I would still say The Hobbit will put up a good fight.

 

[Boom]

The Hobbit is certainly one of the largest responses we have seen from a film property online in the social media era.

Yeah, I'd still argue that The Hobbit will give TDKR a run for its money.

 

[Hush]

Ok I didn't have a fancy graph but yeah that's what I said.