2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[Boom]

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Anyone who still maintains that The Avengers or The Hobbit can even match, let alone eclipse TDKR this year, or said TDK made all that money just because Ledger died better prepare themselves to feast on some lovely crow.

Who gives a ****?

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I don't really care either.

But if I did care I will say you shouldn't count out the Hobbit, especially considering that a Lord of the Rings movie (it's a LOTR franchise movie) would make a hell of a lot more worldwide than a Batman movie.

 

[The Morningstar]

The Dark Knight Rises midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA.

Anyone who still maintains that The Avengers or The Hobbit can even match, let alone eclipse TDKR this year, or said TDK made all that money just because Ledger died better prepare themselves to feast on some lovely crow.

On the same token I could say that anyone who thinks Avengers or TDKR comes anywhere close to The Hobbit is an idiot.

 

[jmc]

Unless The Hobbit is a complete disaster it's gonna well and truly win the battle, especially when you consider that 3D bump it's gonna get. I'd almost guarantee it hit's a billion with ease.

 

[dark_b]

a movie becomes a huge hit with word of mouth and repeat viewings. TDKR sold out tickets means that everyone wants to see the movie based on TDK. but TDK alone will not get ot 1 billion .

TDKR will make a lot money. but not because of sold out tickets in januar IMO

 

[The Morningstar]

I think it'll make at least... hmm... 700-800 million WW.

But The Hobbit liike JMC says will inevitably hit the billion mark.

 

[Fenrir]

On the same token I could say that anyone who thinks Avengers or TDKR comes anywhere close to The Hobbit is an idiot.

On what basis? Twitter statistics? Compared to actual tickets sold for TDKR? Who's being the idiot here?

 

[Marvin]

Yeah, I'd still argue that The Hobbit will give TDKR a run for its money.

The hobbits first teaser in years compared to TDKR's second teaser with not so many reveals is hardly a fair comparison. For example Catwoman doing catwoman like things, bane with the bat mask..etc. That would have probably gotten twitters attention.

I'm certain Hobbit will win but as for buzz who's to say at this point. TDKR still has it's strong momentum from the last one, whereas Hobbit is coming off a ten year layoff by a director who seems to have lost his presence with the audience. Luckily LOTR was never really about the actors(though they managed to shoehorn them all back in somehow) so they have that.

It depends on exactly which Harry Potter film this part one of the hobbit performs like(internationally).

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Who's being the idiot here?

hahahaha well

 

[Fenrir]

hahahaha well

I am glad to see you nominate yourself so enthusiastically.

 

[cherokeesam]

The Dark Knight Rises midnight IMAX showings are already soldout in New York and LA.

Anyone who still maintains that The Avengers or The Hobbit can even match, let alone eclipse TDKR this year, or said TDK made all that money just because Ledger died better prepare themselves to feast on some lovely crow.

Yeah, and *none* of those tickets were bought by scalpers hoping to cash in on the fanboy hype. In January. Nuh-uh.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

I am glad to see you nominate yourself so enthusiastically.

oooh sick burn

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Had to look it up. It sold out a grand total of two theaters. I'd say that's an early indication of jack ****, other than *surprise surprise* Batman has lots of eager fanboys.

The way Fenrir makes it sound, there's not a ticket left to see TDKR until Christmas '13.

Case in point:

The Dark Knight Rises midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA.

Although this news only refers to two theaters in the country

lmao you almost had me going. Almost.

 

[The Morningstar]

On what basis? Twitter statistics? Compared to actual tickets sold for TDKR? Who's being the idiot here?

TDKR will have a massive opening weekend. That's all what you can tell from it's opening tickets being sold out.

The Hobbit's tickets ain't even on sale yet. It's not even released until December and the buzz is huge.

The Hobbit will be the movie event of the year. I don't see how this is deniable.

TDKR might be following on from TDK. But The Hobbit is following on from the ****ing LOTR trilogy.

 

[Fenrir]

Had to look it up. It sold out a grand total of two theaters. I'd say that's an early indication of jack ****, other than *surprise surprise* Batman has lots of eager fanboys.

The way Fenrir makes it sound, there's not a ticket left to see TDKR until Christmas '13.

Case in point:

lmao you almost had me going. Almost.

Is it my fault that you couldn't read "midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA"? Maybe I should enlarge all of my text for you in case you misinterpret this as well and start 'going' again.

 

[The Morningstar]

Midnight showings being sold out doesn't mean ****. Midnight showings are filled by the geeks.

 

[Fenrir]

The Hobbit's tickets ain't even on sale yet. It's not even released until December and the buzz is huge.

The Hobbit will be the movie event of the year. I don't see how this is deniable.

Yes, it is. Peter Jackson's last two films hardly lit the box office on fire, whereas both of Nolan's last two films crossed the $800 million dollar mark globally, and one of them was an original IP.

TDKR might be following on from TDK. But The Hobbit is following on from the ****ing LOTR trilogy.

Sure, The Hobbit is coming off of the LOTR films, but it is also based on a book which was written before the LOTR trilogy and consequently, isn't as complex, ambitious or epic. In essence, The Hobbit film is starting on lesser material than what its predecessors were based on whereas TDK is the conclusion to the most successful superhero trilogy of all time.

 

[The Morningstar]

How complex or ambitious The Hobbit book is is irrelevant. Whether it's a prequel is irrelevant. All that matters to general audiences is it's a new LOTR film made by the same guy.

 

[Fenrir]

Midnight showings being sold out doesn't mean ****. Midnight showings are filled by the geeks.

Add that with the TDKR breaking the iTunes record with over 12.5 million downloads in 24 hours. Sure, midnight showings on their own don't meant **** but midnight showings selling out 6 months earlier and that too before the news hit industry trades like Variety isn't something that happens all that often.

 

[The Morningstar]

Of course not. TDKR is heavily anticipated. No one is denying that. But saying it beats The Hobbit? No chance. Not unless The Hobbit is an absolute disaster.

The Hobbit is just as, if not more anticipated than any other movie this year. And it's still 12 months away.

 

[Fenrir]

How complex or ambitious The Hobbit book is is irrelevant. Whether it's a prequel is irrelevant. All that matters to general audiences is it's a new LOTR film made by the same guy.

Yes, it matters. If audiences go in expecting another massive high fantasy epic like LOTR and return disappointed, it's not going to get enough repeat viewings to beat a Batman film by a director whose track record thus far has been impeccable.

 

[Fenrir]

Of course not. TDKR is heavily anticipated. No one is denying that. But saying it beats The Hobbit? No chance. Not unless The Hobbit is an absolute disaster.

The Hobbit is just as, if not more anticipated than any other movie this year. And it's still 12 months away.

We'll see. To me, it feels exactly like the 2008 "No way TDK can beat Indiana Jones" hype train" all over again where everyone was calling me crazy for expecting Batman to beat Indy. And we both know how that turned out, don't we?

 

[The Morningstar]

But Indy 4 was garbage. If it was an actual good film, it could be a different story.

If The Hobbit is garbage, maybe TDKR will beat it. That's if TDKR is good as well though.

And for the record, Nolan's Batman trilogy won't be the most successful superhero franchise ever. Even if TDKR makes a billion it'll be short of the Spider-Man franchise, where each movie made around 800 million, give or take. Begins would have let it down.

Talking financially, of course.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see the Hobbit winning domestically but overseas it's going to easily out gross TDKR, TDKR's will be a smash but TDK couldn't even outdo Spider-Man 3 overseas so what chance does it have against The Hobbit? Zero chance I say because TLOR's is way more popular overseas than Batman and Spider-Man. The Hobbit is hitting at least 700mil overseas unless something strange happens and Batman has no shot at putting up those kinds of numbers, especially with it lacking an uber popular villain like the Joker.