2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[cherokeesam]

I don't see the Hobbit winning domestically but overseas it's going to easily out gross TDKR, TDKR's will be a smash but TDK couldn't even outdo Spider-Man 3 overseas so what chance does it have against The Hobbit? Zero chance I say because TLOR's is way more popular overseas than Batman and Spider-Man. The Hobbit is hitting at least 700mil overseas unless something strange happens and Batman has no shot at putting up those kinds of numbers, especially with it lacking an uber popular villain like the Joker.

Exactly.
Joker is what made TDK such a phenomenon, period. The actor *and* the role. You don't have that same universal appeal and mystique with Tom Hardy as Bane.

 

[chaseter]

TDKR and Hobbit will surpass a billion WW. That's a safe bet. Hobbit will make more money WW I think.

As for domestic:
1. TDKR
2. Hobbit
3. Avengers

Those are my top 3 picks.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Exactly.
Joker is what made TDK such a phenomenon, period. The actor *and* the role. You don't have that same universal appeal and mystique with Tom Hardy as Bane.

Yes but we are dissin the movie and saying that people didn't like it if we point out that The Joker is one of the most popular villains ever and helped that movie tremendously. I'm not going to pretend that I don't believe that the free publicity of Ledger's death only added to that excitement. That's not to say that unless he died the movie wouldn't have been a smash, I'm sure it would have been but those things helped. The good news for Warners is that people loved the flick so they will largely come back in droves but unless Catwoman or Bane are break out character's and audiences think that it is just as good as the previous film, I just do not see Rises making as much as TDK domestically. I'm still predicting like 450milish so it's not like I'm predicting a bomb or anything. I still think that it can do 1 bil word wide but I just do not seeing it out doing The Hobbit overseas.

 

[Bats123]

I think some of you guys are underestimating the power of 3D, Avengers, Spider-Man and MIB 3 have 3D, and im
pretty sure at least two of these will be able to match TDKR numbers.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

MIB3 looks terrible, has a massive budget and will greatly under perform because of that budget and the second movie sucking. Spider-Man is not going to do as good as the Raimi films domestically, period. It just isn't going to happen because reboots never do that. 3D helps movies overseas but has hurt quite a few movies domestically so yeah, I think that that trend will continue. The Avengers has no chance of out grossing Rises anywhere.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

I think some of you guys are underestimating the power of 3D, Avengers, Spider-Man and MIB 3 have 3D, and im
pretty sure at least two of these will be able to match TDKR numbers.

3D has been dying and I expect the trend to continue this year.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

TDKR and Hobbit will surpass a billion WW. That's a safe bet. Hobbit will make more money WW I think.

As for domestic:
1. TDKR
2. Hobbit
3. Avengers

Those are my top 3 picks.

I would say that too, but here's the thing, The Hobbit is being released in December with no other sequels. It's only one of two Blockbusters being released in December (along with World War Z). While I'm not saying it could make as much as Avatar, I could see The Hobbit going a roll, not too unlike Avatar a few years ago when Avatar's only competition during that run was Sherlock Holmes.

 

[Evil Twin]

I'd add that there's a good chance that The Hobbit won't be 3 hours long.

 

[The Chris]

Overseas The Hobbit will take it, but domestically I don't think it will be that close. TDK is the third biggest movie of all time here, and the anticipation for this one is insane. If the movie is great, man it's gonna be a monster over here. I'm a big Lord of the Rings fan, but the desire to see The Hobbit isn't as close as the desire to see TDKR. 3D should help the Hobbit though.

 

[chaseter]

I think some of you guys are underestimating the power of 3D, Avengers, Spider-Man and MIB 3 have 3D, and im
pretty sure at least two of these will be able to match TDKR numbers.

What power does MIB have? A sequel to a movie 10 years ago that was awful? Will Smith who can't hold a candle to LOTR and TDK? It would be lucky to finish 4th or 5th.

Avengers will do good but it's best hope is third. It will not do amazing overseas. It can't beat the LOTR or current Batman monster.

ASM will not hold a candle to any of the previous Raimi movies box office wise. It may be great, who knows, but it has too much working against it and it doesn't help that Peter is wearing a Ramones shirt or that Lizard looks absolutely stupid in the merchandising. I think that movie will try too hard to be dark and gritty with new age hipster teenage angst BS. ASM will probably finish 5th or less for the year.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

MIIIB will not match those numbers. Will Smith is sellable but he hasn't been a movie in nearly 3 years. Also, the MIB franchise isn't as profitable as the other franchises, especially in today's cinematic landscape.

 

[Spideyfan93]

MIB3 is still going to make a lot of money.

A lot of people are excited for that movie, including me. Don't underestimate the power of Will Smith. It may not be top 5 grossing, but it will rake in ridiculous amounts of dough.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Midnight showings being sold out doesn't mean ****. Midnight showings are filled by the geeks.

Exactly.

Is it my fault that you couldn't read "midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA"? Maybe I should enlarge all of my text for you in case you misinterpret this as well and start 'going' again.

Yeah I read past that part but it doesn't change the fact that 2 theaters selling out doesn't mean squat, especially considering The Hobbit isn't selling tix yet.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Is it my fault that you couldn't read "midnight IMAX showings are already sold out in New York and LA"? Maybe I should enlarge all of my text for you in case you misinterpret this as well and start 'going' again.

Hey, will do me a big favor and I will be forever happy with you?

Will you go back to sewers of the Batboards with the other crazed Nolanites will you belong? I wondering how Mister J let you out.

TDKR did not do as well as other movies overseas, that's why it barely crossed a billion overall despite doing a very excellent job domestically.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

It really is sad. despite two hugely successful movies they still feel inferior and seem obsessed with proving to everyone how much better they are as if they have a personal stake in things beyond squeezing their asses into a theater seat. I was willing to give that dude the benefit of the doubt but if he's one of the batboard regulars I won't bother. I've already dealt with my share of children today.

 

[Fenrir]

Hey, will do me a big favor and I will be forever happy with you?

Will you go back to sewers of the Batboards with the other crazed Nolanites will you belong? I wondering how Mister J let you out.

It really is sad. despite two hugely successful movies they still feel inferior and seem obsessed with proving to everyone how much better they are as if they have a personal stake in things beyond squeezing their asses into a theater seat. I was willing to give that dude the benefit of the doubt but if he's one of the batboard regulars I won't bother. I've already dealt with my share of children today.

On the contrary, both of your posts are blatant expressions of your own juvenile insecurities. I am basically rooting for my favorite character and I explained why and how he will dominate this year's box office. And even if you disagree with my reasoning, one can't help but notice how threatened you feel even by such mere insinuations that you you have to stoop down this level of verbiage. At least The Morningstar had the decency to maintain a level-headed exchange and actually say something of substance in the end instead of just going "lol, your wrong Hobbit wins" or "get back to your hole". If you are so terrified of the prospect of TDKR being the 2012 box office king that you feel the need to respond in such a manner to a conclusion you already believe is wrong, then it is you who needs to grow a thicker skin.

TDKR did not do as well as other movies overseas, that's why it barely crossed a billion overall despite doing a very excellent job domestically.

That is because it wasn't released in China, the 3rd largest overseas market. Transformers and Avatar both made more than 150 million there and The Dark Knight holds the record as one of the most pirated movies in China of all time. Now, with Flowers of War becoming China's sixth highest grossing film in just 17 days, no doubt TDKR is going to benefit from Bale's starpower in the region.

 

[rashad]

TDK did not do as well as other movies overseas, that's why it barely crossed a billion overall despite doing a very excellent job domestically.

Nearly making $470M is not doing well? It also made that without a China release. That is still an unprecedented amount of money for a CBM not named Spider-Man.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

On the contrary, both of your posts are blatant expressions of your own juvenile insecurities. I am basically rooting for my favorite character and I explained why and how he will dominate this year's box office. And even if you disagree with my reasoning, one can't help but notice how threatened you feel even by such mere insinuations that you you have to stoop down this level of verbiage. At least The Morningstar had the decency to maintain a level-headed exchange and actually say something of substance in the end instead of just going "lol, your wrong Hobbit wins" or "get back to your hole". If you are so terrified of the prospect of TDKR being the 2012 box office king that you feel the need to respond in such a manner to a conclusion you already believe is wrong, then it is you who needs to grow a thicker skin.



That is because it wasn't released in China, the 3rd largest overseas market. Transformers and Avatar both made more than 150 million there and The Dark Knight holds the record as one of the most pirated movies in China of all time. Now, with Flowers of War becoming China's sixth highest grossing film in just 17 days, no doubt TDKR is going to benefit from Bale's starpower in the region.

I don't really care that much. I'll enjoy the movies. I don't take a offense to that.

What I do take offense to is you making petty remarks like accusing people not being able to read.

By the way, that "Hole" called the Batboards is calling for you......

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Nearly making $470M is not doing well? It also made that without a China release. That is still an unprecedented amount of money for a CBM not named Spider-Man.

I was comparing it to other movie released overseas, in which they make a billion by making more than $600 million overseas.

In 2009 (since it's closer to inflation), there were two movies that made more than $600 million+ overseas without being released in China, Harry Potter: Half Blood Prince and Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs. I love the Batman movies, but I think you and Fenrir are overestimating how much it can do overseas, especially considering that Asian markets don't seem to like Superheroes that aren't Spider-Man.

 

[Superhero 101]

My Predictions of the 2012

1. The Hobbit
2. TDKR
3. Avengers

 

[Fenrir]

What I do take offense to is you making petty remarks like accusing people not being able to read.

It wasn't a petty remark. It was an accurate remark. He didn't properly read what I posted and assumed I said something I never did. If you're going to act like a smartass, then it's in your own best interest to avoid getting caught in embarrassing screwups like 'oops, missed those four letters in your sentence'. Or, as I said, grow a thicker skin.

By the way, that "Hole" called the Batboards is calling for you......

Even more reassurance of your timid insecurities. "Oh oh Fenrir is here again and he has words! Quick, somebody please get him out here!"

 

[Whiskey Tango]

On the contrary, both of your posts are blatant expressions of your own juvenile insecurities. I am basically rooting for my favorite character and I explained why and how he will dominate this year's box office. And even if you disagree with my reasoning, one can't help but notice how threatened you feel even by such mere insinuations that you you have to stoop down this level of verbiage. At least The Morningstar had the decency to maintain a level-headed exchange and actually say something of substance in the end instead of just going "lol, your wrong Hobbit wins" or "get back to your hole". If you are so terrified of the prospect of TDKR being the 2012 box office king that you feel the need to respond in such a manner to a conclusion you already believe is wrong, then it is you who needs to grow a thicker skin.

Yeah cuz these

Anyone who still maintains that The Avengers or The Hobbit can even match, let alone eclipse TDKR this year, or said TDK made all that money just because Ledger died better prepare themselves to feast on some lovely crow.

I am glad to see you nominate yourself so enthusiastically.

If you're going to act like a smartass

are the height of maturity and 'level headed exchange'. Way to maintain that self-righteousness. Hypocrisy thy name is Fenrir.

 

[Boom]

Can we keep this thread from devolving into another petty (and unnecessary) attack on the Bat Boards? Contrary to popular belief, there are plenty of mature, level-headed, and friendly posters who frequent those boards.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

When one of them shows up maybe we'll have a party.

 

[rashad]

Contrary to popular belief, there are plenty of mature, level-headed, and friendly posters who frequent those boards.

I agree.