2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

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It's hard to say whether or not Snyder has the final say in every aspect of the film, but thus far, the suit he wanted to employ for this installment involved briefs (not that I'm complaining), and the MoS suit clearly is missing them.

Although nothing regarding The Nolans' purpose for involvement in the project will ever grace the public, it's abundantly clear that The Nolans were brought in by WB to 'supervise' the script (Goyer is an idea-man) and post-production.

Remember, right now, WB doesn't trust Zack Snyder alone with the future of Superman due to his last outing.
 
Then I question why they even gave him the gig in the first place. If he's name isn't big enough to get peoples butts in seats, why give him the job if he's just going to be a yes man?

Someone at WB likes Snyder as a director, this much is certain. It's why he's had numerous chances despite box office failure.
 
I just don't think that WB has Snyder under such a tight grip that he needs to follow their orders.
Though Guardians of Ga Hoole and SUker Punch bombed , 300 made money and Watchmen was an underperformer but not a flop pe se.
Nolan might have some input in the script and choosing the case but it's Snyder who has to do all the work.
Take a look at the transformers movie. Just because Spielberg is the producer , doesn't mean you'll get a Spielberg movie. How else do you explain robot balls dangling over John Torturro or a chinese guy with the name of Jerry Wang .
 
Well in the case of Transformers, the first one had Spielberg written all over it. That's why it was somewhat decent. The sequels were just Michael Bay let loose on the world with no one saying "You know Mike, this idea it's... it's terrible".
 
Snyder is far from a yes-man, he's a young and talented director who is struggling at the present moment to accumulate mass dough. In fact, he reminds me of Bay (however Snyder is the superior writer out of the two) but it doesnt hurt WB's chances by bringing in their Golden Boy to overlook the project.

Granted, Nolan's role is probably small, but a few subtle touches here and there involving the plot and characters can prove to be a factor.
 
Even though Nolan's role in the production will probably be small there's no doubt in my mind he would be kept well informed of the happenings of the film. It's still Snyders film to screw up at this stage imo, I've got no doubt the creative team who wrote the story will deliver, Snyder's directorial record to date as been mixed at best so he is always going to be the concern for me.
 
Then I question why they even gave him the gig in the first place. If he's name isn't big enough to get peoples butts in seats, why give him the job if he's just going to be a yes man?
why was he choosen for superman:
- WB worked with him. they know each other
- experience with big budget
- understands how to make an action movie
- experince with action
- fans of comics
- WB needed very fast a director .

i would like ot make it very clear that when i said that Snyder is on a tight leash i meant with the studio WB and not Nolan. Superman is WB's baby and not Nolan's
 
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for anyone tired of tatum his movie just made 41 million this weekend

he is here to stay LOL
 
Snyder is also able to manage his budget , something that you can't say for alot of directors.
 
Snyder is also able to manage his budget , something that you can't say for alot of directors.

That's because Superman had a tight shooting schedule (August 2011-February 2012). Snyder likely had rehearsals before cameras rolled, and he didn't wait for filming to wrap to start editing. By getting edited scenes off to the CGI houses like WETA, Double Negative and MPC asap, WB doesn't overspend to get finished CGI 'money shots'.

And I re-watched the first TDKR trailer again. Not only will the franchise reclaim its 'biggest opening day record' and 'biggest opening weekend' record back from HP -- I think that movie has a chance of eclipsing $100M the first day and possibly a $180M-$190M opening weekend. Depending on how well it holds up and WOM, it'll easily coast $400M domestic and $1B worldwide. If the WOM is as good as it was on TDK, it could cross $500M domestic too.
 
Snyder also did a very fine job with the budget for Watchmen. Given the scope of the project, including handling multiple time periods, there were plenty of directors who probably wouldn't have brought it in less than $200 million.
 
That's because Superman had a tight shooting schedule (August 2011-February 2012). Snyder likely had rehearsals before cameras rolled, and he didn't wait for filming to wrap to start editing. By getting edited scenes off to the CGI houses like WETA, Double Negative and MPC asap, WB doesn't overspend to get finished CGI 'money shots'.

And I re-watched the first TDKR trailer again. Not only will the franchise reclaim its 'biggest opening day record' and 'biggest opening weekend' record back from HP -- I think that movie has a chance of eclipsing $100M the first day and possibly a $180M-$190M opening weekend. Depending on how well it holds up and WOM, it'll easily coast $400M domestic and $1B worldwide. If the WOM is as good as it was on TDK, it could cross $500M domestic too.

As great as The Avengers and The Amazing Spiderman will be, these two films combined cannot eclipse the popularity that is Chris Nolan's Batman. I'm not certain that either The Avengers or TDKR will surpass the billion dollar mark due to Dark Shadows, Battleship, Expendables 2, and The Bourne Legacy but if any film still holds the advantage in making that kind of dough it's TDKR.
 
I cant see neither Avengers nor Spider-Man breaking 1 billion. 700-800m seems more likely to me. Dark Knight Rises should be able to make it though. It wont do as well as The Dark Knight did domestically, but should still be able to pass 400m with relative ease (unless it totally sucks). The Dark Knight made over 450m in foreign territories and Dark Knight Rises will definitely build on that success with an additional 100-150m. So something like 430m domestic and 600m foreign, with a total of 1030m worldwide seems likely.

As for the opening weekend record, I think that Dark Knight Rises will have a slight chance to best it. I'm thinking something like 165-175m.
 
That's because Superman had a tight shooting schedule (August 2011-February 2012). Snyder likely had rehearsals before cameras rolled, and he didn't wait for filming to wrap to start editing. By getting edited scenes off to the CGI houses like WETA, Double Negative and MPC asap, WB doesn't overspend to get finished CGI 'money shots'.

.
august-februar is a tight schedule? thats 6 months
 
That's because Superman had a tight shooting schedule (August 2011-February 2012). Snyder likely had rehearsals before cameras rolled, and he didn't wait for filming to wrap to start editing. By getting edited scenes off to the CGI houses like WETA, Double Negative and MPC asap, WB doesn't overspend to get finished CGI 'money shots'.

And I re-watched the first TDKR trailer again. Not only will the franchise reclaim its 'biggest opening day record' and 'biggest opening weekend' record back from HP -- I think that movie has a chance of eclipsing $100M the first day and possibly a $180M-$190M opening weekend. Depending on how well it holds up and WOM, it'll easily coast $400M domestic and $1B worldwide. If the WOM is as good as it was on TDK, it could cross $500M domestic too.

I don't think it'll beat TDK box office wise. It doesn't have the Joker factor, which for some reason people keep underestimating. Batman vs Joker is a pop culture event. Especially when the guy playing Joker dies in the build up to the film.

I guess it will make at least 800 million WW though, give or take.

Oh, and WB doesn't overspend on CGI? Green Lantern ring any bells? That had to be the most expensive, cheap looking movie i've ever seen. Where did all that money go?!!

Who is doing the CGI for MoS anyway? Hopefully not Sony Imageworks.
 
WETA and Double Negative so nothing to worry about in terms of visuals.
 
I don't think it'll beat TDK box office wise. It doesn't have the Joker factor, which for some reason people keep underestimating. Batman vs Joker is a pop culture event. Especially when the guy playing Joker dies in the build up to the film.

I guess it will make at least 800 million WW though, give or take.

Oh, and WB doesn't overspend on CGI? Green Lantern ring any bells? That had to be the most expensive, cheap looking movie i've ever seen. Where did all that money go?!!

Who is doing the CGI for MoS anyway? Hopefully not Sony Imageworks.

If it's a Snyder film then CGI won't be a problem.
 
Oh, and WB doesn't overspend on CGI? Green Lantern ring any bells? That had to be the most expensive, cheap looking movie i've ever seen. Where did all that money go?!!

GL is an unfortunate victim of 'throw more money at it, maybe it'll get better' thinking from studio honchos. That extra money spent was also spent on the hasty 3D conversion too.

WB's learned their lesson with money pits like SR and GL. MOS will probably come close to a $200M budget, but Snyder is the kind of guy who likes to deliver a movie on time AND on budget. Unless post-production falls apart or a producers vs. Snyder conflict erupts, WB isn't going to overspend on this.
 
Good news for Hollywood:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/white-house-gets-china-open-market-us-movies-35517

White House Gets China To Open Market to U.S. Movies

China agreed to significantly increase market access for U.S. movies in order to resolve an outstanding trade dispute, The White House announced on Friday.

The concession comes as part of an attempt to resolve outstanding issues related to films after the United States won in a World Trade Organization dispute last year.

"The agreement announced today will allow significantly more job-supporting U.S. film exports to China and provide fairer compensation to U.S. film producers for the movies being shown there," the White House said.

The agreement was announced by Vice President Joe Biden, who said: “This agreement with China will make it easier than ever before for U.S. studios and independent filmmakers to reach the fast-growing Chinese audience, supporting thousands of American jobs in and around the film industry."

But China represents the largest untapped international market for American movies, but up to now its market has been tightly controlled by quotas. Still, the three highest-grossing films in China last year came from the the U.S., led by "Transformers 3," which took in $172 million there.

The White House did not say how many films would now be allowed in China, saying only that the number would increase "significantly."

With regard to films, a WTO panel found in a report issued in August 2009 that key Chinese film import restrictions were inconsistent with China’s WTO obligations.

The Chinese box office revenue was $2.1 billion last year, according to The White House.

Here is the full White House statement:

United States Achieves Breakthrough on Movies in Dispute with China

Washington, D.C. – Vice President Joe Biden announced today that China has agreed to significantly increase market access for U.S. movies in order to resolve outstanding issues related to films after the United States’ victory in a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute last year.The agreement announced today will allow significantly more job-supporting U.S. film exports to China and provide fairer compensation to U.S. film producers for the movies being shown there.

“This agreement with China will make it easier than ever before for U.S. studios and independent filmmakers to reach the fast-growing Chinese audience, supporting thousands of American jobs in and around the film industry,” said Vice President Biden, who spent the day in the Los Angeles area with Vice President Xi Jinping of China.“At the same time, Chinese audiences will have access to more of the finest films made anywhere in the world.”

“U.S. studios and independent filmmakers cite China as one of their most important world markets, but barriers imposed by China and challenged by the United States in the WTO have artificially reduced the revenue U.S. film producers received from their movies in the Chinese market,”said United States Trade Representative Ron Kirk. “This agreement will help to change that, boosting one of America’s strongest export sectors in one of our largest export markets.”

The Chinese film market is large and growing quickly; last year, Chinese box office revenue was up to $2.1 billion. Much of this revenue came from 3D titles, which are a rapidly growing sector of the film industry.

The agreement allows more American exports to China of 3D, IMAX, and similar enhanced format movies on favorable commercial terms, strengthens the opportunities to distribute films through private enterprises rather than the state film monopoly, and ensures fairer compensation levels for U.S. blockbuster films distributed by Chinese state-owned enterprises. The agreement will be reviewed after 5 years to ensure that it is working as envisioned. If necessary, the United States can return to the WTO to seek relief.


BACKGROUND

The United States initiated the underlying WTO dispute in April 2007. In the dispute, the United States sought to address significant market access concerns relating to China’s treatment of films for theatrical release, as well as other cultural products.

With regard to films, a WTO panel found in a report issued in August 2009 that key Chinese film import restrictions were inconsistent with China’s WTO obligations. In December 2009, after China appealed, the WTO Appellate Body rejected China's claims and upheld the panel's findings. China promised to come into compliance by March 2011, but informed the United States at the deadline that this would not be possible. The two sides have been making efforts to resolve their differences since that time.

On a global basis, films and other audiovisual services are a key export sector in which the United States enjoys a $12 billion trade surplus. U.S. cross-border exports of audiovisual services, including films, have consistently exceeded U.S. cross-border imports over the last decade.
 
Top 5 worldwide so far:

1. The Intouchables $226,9 million
2. Underworld Awakening $131,3 million
3. The Secret World of Arrietty $126,4 million
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $112,3 million
5. The Flowers of War $83,2 million
 
I was wondering how the hell The Secret World of Arrietty got so high and it turns out it exploded in Japan. But to be fair that was all accumulated in 2010
 
I was wondering how the hell The Secret World of Arrietty got so high and it turns out it exploded in Japan. But to be fair that was all accumulated in 2010

Well, it is a Japanese movie after all. :)

And in case someone wonders what it's doing on the 2012 chart it is because the American release is this year. For some reason box office tracking sites puts foreign movies on charts the year of the American release, not the year of the release in its home country
 
I just don't think that WB has Snyder under such a tight grip that he needs to follow their orders.
Though Guardians of Ga Hoole and SUker Punch bombed , 300 made money and Watchmen was an underperformer but not a flop pe se.
Nolan might have some input in the script and choosing the case but it's Snyder who has to do all the work.
Take a look at the transformers movie. Just because Spielberg is the producer , doesn't mean you'll get a Spielberg movie. How else do you explain robot balls dangling over John Torturro or a chinese guy with the name of Jerry Wang .

Watchmen financially f***ed Warner Bros.
 
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