2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I still think it will only make $200-$230 million domestic and $600 to $700 million WW, which is still a success.

I think $700 million WW is the floor. It will probably eclipse $200 million domestic in a couple of weeks and reach close to if not exceed $500 million WW in it's first three weeks if it's good. What will hurt it's overall B.O. numbers is TDKR three weeks later. It will definitely hit a wall it otherwise wouldn't have. Although a great film with strong WOM will make the hit less drastic. But yes, even a $600 -$700 million WW haul should be considered a success for a reboot IMO. Especially when measured against the recent ones of the last five + years.

I predict $800 million WW for Spidey.

 

[Iceman]

I think $700 million WW is the floor. It will probably eclipse $200 million domestic in a couple of weeks and reach close to if not exceed $500 million WW in it's first three weeks if it's good. What will hurt it's overall B.O. numbers is TDKR three weeks later. It will definitely hit a wall it otherwise wouldn't have. Although a great film with strong WOM will make the hit less drastic. But yes, even a $600 -$700 million WW haul should be considered a success for a reboot IMO. Especially when measured against the recent ones of the last five + years.

Yeah, I can't see myself watching TASM again once TDKR is out. Without it there was a possibility.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah, I can't see myself watching TASM again once TDKR is out. Without it there was a possibility.

So what if you like Spidey and TDKR is a disappointment to you? There will no doubt be people who are anticipating Rises more then Amazing, but end up liking the latter better. Everything is just hype and anticipation at this point. All that could be deflated in a single weekend. These things we can't factor obviously until the moment of truth.

 

[Dr. Evil]

No surprise that Eddie Murphy's latest movie bombed.

Two words for Eddie: Tyler Perry.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

So what if you like TASM and TDKR is a disappointment to you? There will no doubt be people who are anticipating TDKR more then TASM, but end up liking the latter better. Everything is just hype and anticipation at this point. All that could be deflated in a single weekend. These things we can't factor obviously until the moment of truth.

yeah. It always bothers me seeing people already deciding how much they'll like it and how many times they'll see it months before release.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

No surprise that Eddie Murphy's latest movie bombed.

Two words for Eddie: Tyler Perry.

No words for Eddie. Isn't that what the movie's about?

 

[jmc]

Corporations should? t:

Spend less money converting screens and having proper projectors or do nothing and make the same money?

All I'm saying is that people have the right to know if a film is 3d made or converted, at the moment it's all treated the same when they're not, one is inferior at present.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Fans opinions range on Raimi, Maguire and Dunst (though unsurprisingly more negative the closer we get to the shiny new toy being released this summer), but the GA loved the first two movies and for the most part didn't seem to hate the third--though the Internet seems to despise that movie.

I think rebooting with the origin this soon will have a backlash. If they had just done a loose sequel to SM3--Andrew Garfield vs. The Lizard while discovering some secret about his father with none of the high school stuff, getting bitten, Uncle Ben, etc.--it would probably be better accepted. But doing the origin and calling it "The Untold Story" just reeks of unoriginality.

I still think it will only make $200-$230 million domestic and $600 to $700 million WW, which is still a success.

ASM will only make 400 m overseas?

with 3D, inflation, expanded markets, and possibly improved quality? Those things allowed Transformers 3 to increase an extra 340 m overseas.

ASM is going to be a monster overseas. 600 m is the floor. Anyone expecting less than 850 m worldwide will be sorely disappointed.

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

Fans opinions range on Raimi, Maguire and Dunst (though unsurprisingly more negative the closer we get to the shiny new toy being released this summer), but the GA loved the first two movies and for the most part didn't seem to hate the third--though the Internet seems to despise that movie.

I think rebooting with the origin this soon will have a backlash. If they had just done a loose sequel to SM3--Andrew Garfield vs. The Lizard while discovering some secret about his father with none of the high school stuff, getting bitten, Uncle Ben, etc.--it would probably be better accepted. But doing the origin and calling it "The Untold Story" just reeks of unoriginality.

I still think it will only make $200-$230 million domestic and $600 to $700 million WW, which is still a success.

Dead on.

 

[jmc]

Jumping the gun is not uncommon when it comes to box office predicting.

 

[CConn]

I think it's kinda laughable to think the GA will give a damn about rebooting the origin.

If it's good, if it's Spider-Man, they'll come.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'll just bookmark this page for when ASM crosses one billion worldwide. lol!

 

[Figs]

I think it's kinda laughable to think the GA will give a damn about rebooting the origin.

If it's good, if it's Spider-Man, they'll come.

Exactly, it's only fanboys crying about it.

I love how when a large number of fans like or dislike something they unite and think that they speak for the GA too.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think it's kinda laughable to think the GA will give a damn about rebooting the origin.

If it's good, if it's Spider-Man, they'll come.

Especially overseas. They aren't loyal to actors or directors. They're loyal to the fictional characters.

Die Another Day - 271 m OS

Casino Royale - 426 m OS

 

[DACrowe]

I think it's kinda laughable to think the GA will give a damn about rebooting the origin.

If it's good, if it's Spider-Man, they'll come.

The GA doesn't like being fed something they blatantly know they've seen before. Yes, all the Transformer films are the same (as are most superhero origin films), but they at least make an attempt to seem new. Most of the GA today saw Spider-Man 10 years ago and loved the movie then. They probably only vaguely remember the movie, but seeing what is essentially a remake of the exact same bloody story of a high school nerd being bitten by a magical spider of some kind (science=magic in many comics ) and getting superpowers he'd abuse until his uncle dies saying "With great power...."

Audiences feel like they are being talked down to by Hollywood trying to recycle the same story. The movie is going to need to be really freaking good to overcome the perception of tired and rehashed that so many people seem to think the movie has.

 

[CConn]

The GA doesn't like being fed something they blatantly know they've seen before. Yes, all the Transformer films are the same (as are most superhero origin films), but they at least make an attempt to seem new. Most of the GA today saw Spider-Man 10 years ago and loved the movie then. They probably only vaguely remember the movie, but seeing what is essentially a remake of the exact same bloody story of a high school nerd being bitten by a magical spider of some kind (science=magic in many comics ) and getting superpowers he'd abuse until his uncle dies saying "With great power...."

Audiences feel like they are being talked down to by Hollywood trying to recycle the same story. The movie is going to need to be really freaking good to overcome the perception of tired and rehashed that so many people seem to think the movie has.

And you just defeated your own argument with the bolded sentences.

 

[jmc]

The GA doesn't like being fed something they blatantly know they've seen before. Yes, all the Transformer films are the same (as are most superhero origin films), but they at least make an attempt to seem new. Most of the GA today saw Spider-Man 10 years ago and loved the movie then. They probably only vaguely remember the movie, but seeing what is essentially a remake of the exact same bloody story of a high school nerd being bitten by a magical spider of some kind (science=magic in many comics ) and getting superpowers he'd abuse until his uncle dies saying "With great power...."

Audiences feel like they are being talked down to by Hollywood trying to recycle the same story. The movie is going to need to be really freaking good to overcome the perception of tired and rehashed that so many people seem to think the movie has.

Do you not think the trailer has set itself apart enough from the Raimi series to peak curiosity?

 

[DACrowe]

Especially overseas. They aren't loyal to actors or directors. They're loyal to the fictional characters.

Die Another Day - 271 m OS

Casino Royale - 426 m OS

We'll see. CR was not a remake of GoldenEye and didn't cover many of the same plot points. Also, Bond is expected to have new actors play the part. EON has done a good job of convincing audiences to accept that. But it hasn't always been easy:


You Only Live Twice (1967): $43 million US
On Her Majesty's Secret Service (1969): $22 million US

Diamonds are Forever (1971): $41 million US
Live and Let Die (1973): $35 million US

A View to a Kill (1985): $50 million US
License to Kill (1989): $34 million US

None of those drops in intake were enough to end the Bond series--though they each came close and it took DAF, The Spy Who Loved Me and GoldenEye respectively to keep the franchise afloat--but they were still big drops. I expect the first time a Spidey actor is replaced so soon after how well liked Maguire's incarnation was by GA will have a drop-off. Particularly as this is a remake.

I'm not talking quality, by the way.

 

[DACrowe]

And you just defeated your own argument with the bolded sentences.

You clearly must not have read the rest of the paragraph.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The love interest is a nerdy scientist, the villain is lizard, Spider-man tells wisecracks, Spider-man has mechanical webshooters, Spider-man is hunted by the police, the movie is grounded in reality, all the actors are different, Parker's parents are introduced and weaved into the origin, and Uncle Ben dies because a different chain of events.

There's plenty of new material for audiences to chew on.

ASM has the same beginning as SM1? SM3 has the same ending (Mary Jane kidnap/rescue) as both SM1 AND SM2. So what?

 

[DACrowe]

Do you not think the trailer has set itself apart enough from the Raimi series to peak curiosity?

I thought the trailer did a good job of making this look like Christopher Nolan's Spider-Man. They even worked in "Begins."

I am not opposed to a new Spidey film. I actually think Garfield looks like he'll play a better Spidey (at least in costume) than Maguire and am happy to see the quipping. Emma Stone looks like she'll be great. The Lizard was my favorite villain growing up. Still, overlooking my personal disappointment with both Spidey and the Lizard's designs in the film, the movie (especially in the teaser) has a "been there, done that" vibe.

I'll be greatly surprised if it cracks $300 million domestically. Especially as audiences seem to be fatigued with the whole superhero thing when one looks at the grosses of all four superhero films from 2011. Granted, Spidey is arguably the most popular superhero in pop culture (I think Batman has the nudge), but audiences aren't dying to see a new Spidey so soon after enjoying the last one whose franchise began with the same story TEN YEARS AGO. Plus with The Avengers having the novelty team-up thing before TASM and TDKR opening two weeks after, TASM is kind of squeezed in.

It will make money and if it's good, like Batman Begins, it will find its audience and set up for a massive second installment. But I don't see it having a shot at being anywhere near the success of the Raimi films or TDK. I think it will finish in a distant third for the summer.

 

[Marvin]

The reboot will pique interest on the fact alone, whereas another spiderman sequel from the team that looked bored in the previous one would have audiences decided before the fact.

I think it will do IM 1 numbers and it's sequel will do TF numbers.

The only downside is the villain.
Spider man vs a bad cg monster...If this was the cinematic introduction to doc ock that would have been something. Also if it was the first we seen of Venom...

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

We'll see. CR was not a remake of GoldenEye and didn't cover many of the same plot points. Also, Bond is expected to have new actors play the part. EON has done a good job of convincing audiences to accept that. But it hasn't always been easy:


You Only Live Twice (1967): $43 million US
On Her Majesty's Secret Service (1969): $22 million US

Diamonds are Forever (1971): $41 million US
Live and Let Die (1973): $35 million US

A View to a Kill (1985): $50 million US
License to Kill (1989): $34 million US

None of those drops in intake were enough to end the Bond series--though they each came close and it took DAF, The Spy Who Loved Me and GoldenEye respectively to keep the franchise afloat--but they were still big drops. I expect the first time a Spidey actor is replaced so soon after how well liked Maguire's incarnation was by GA will have a drop-off. Particularly as this is a remake.

I'm not talking quality, by the way.

Yeah ASM might drop domestically but not overseas.

Overseas audiences aren't as picky when it comes to popular franchises. The success of TF3 and POTC 4 can attest to that.

 

[CConn]

You clearly must not have read the rest of the paragraph.

Yes, I did. In that paragraph, you said nothing the least bit convincing.

Except, of course, for the part where you agreed with me that, if ASM is good, the GA will embrace it.

 

[Dr. Evil]

No words for Eddie. Isn't that what the movie's about?

In all seriousness though, if Eddie Murphy was cast in a few Tyler Perry films, it may jumpstart his career. It needs something. Tyler Perry films may be it. I say this because they cost like $100 to make, but they end up making like several million in the box office. He does a few of those, it could revive his career a bit.