2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions)

[DACrowe]

Yes, I did. In that paragraph, you said nothing the least bit convincing.

Except, of course, for the part where you agreed with me that, if ASM is good, the GA will embrace it.

Batman Begins was good and the GA embraced it...mostly on DVD, because they didn't want to pay to see another Batman movie eight years after the last franchise ended...on a point most people hated.

TASM is opening five years after the last franchise ended on a low point, but one that didn't flop like B&R and one that didn't have most people turn away from the franchise. TASM will be a hit. But will it be as big as Raimi's films or TDK? I think not.

 

[ThePowerCosmic]

In all seriousness though, if Eddie Murphy was cast in a few Tyler Perry films, it may jumpstart his career. It needs something. Tyler Perry films may be it. I say this because they cost like $100 to make, but they end up making like several million in the box office. He does a few of those, it could revive his career a bit.

True, Eddie does need something to revitalize what he had. Tyler Perry films would get the job done but I think he needs to slow down on the family films and go back to more adult-oriented comedies like he was doing in the 80's-90's. I'd have no problem with his family films if they were more like his roles in Mulan and Shrek where they were actually funny to watch and not head-shakingly bad.

 

[CConn]

Batman Begins was good and the GA embraced it...mostly on DVD, because they didn't want to pay to see another Batman movie eight years after the last franchise ended...on a point most people hated.

Exactly. The were totally different circumstances surrounding Batman Begins, so it's really not a fair comparison.

TASM is opening five years after the last franchise ended on a low point, but one that didn't flop like B&R and one that didn't have most people turn away from the franchise. TASM will be a hit.

That's my point exactly; Spider-Man 1 was a hit, Spider-Man 2 was a hit, Spider-Man 3 was a hit...there's no reason why ASM wouldn't be a hit as well.

But will it be as big as Raimi's films or TDK? I think not.

I never said it would be bigger than TDK or the first Spider-Man. Although the advent of 3D may help it surpass the latter.

 

[mclay18]

That depends on the percentage of 3D and whether audiences will are willing to pay for the extra. Question is are people becoming more savy now with what's filmed in 3D and what's post converted to 3D?

At the theater I work at, yes. The 3D bubble popped after Alice in Wonderland (where it was riding Avatar's coattails), and the feelings have changed. Even with natively-shot 3D movies like Tron: Legacy and Transformers 3 out there, most of the audience members have opted to see the following movies in 2D when they're given an option between 2D and 3D:

Narnia 3
Green Lantern
Pirates 4
John Carter
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Cars 2
Clash of the Titans
Last Airbender
Yogi Bear
Final Destination 5
Thor
Captain America
Transformers 3
Despicable Me

CGI animated films tend to be more evenly split considering the digital nature and the family factor. And for big blockbuster movies at our theater, the 3D shows usually hover between 25%-45% capacity on opening weekend, but drop off to around 15-25% during the week and subsequent weekends (as more people go to the 2D shows instead). The last 3D movie I remember being packed to capacity was the midnight show for HP8, and even later on on opening day the 3D shows for that weren't even half full.

It's not just the cost difference, but the studios have to work to make the 3D experience worth that extra price (and 3D conversions aren't doing the trick). And 90% of their 3D output just isn't worth paying extra in the first place. But they keep churning it out because it's still more money...

 

[jmc]

At the theater I work at, yes. The 3D bubble popped after Alice in Wonderland (where it was riding Avatar's coattails), and the feelings have changed. Even with natively-shot 3D movies like Tron: Legacy and Transformers 3 out there, most of the audience members have opted to see the following movies in 2D when they're given an option between 2D and 3D:

Narnia 3
Green Lantern
Pirates 4
John Carter
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2
Cars 2
Clash of the Titans
Last Airbender
Yogi Bear
Final Destination 5
Thor
Captain America
Transformers 3
Despicable Me

CGI animated films tend to be more evenly split considering the digital nature and the family factor. And for big blockbuster movies at our theater, the 3D shows usually hover between 25%-45% capacity on opening weekend, but drop off to around 15-25% during the week and subsequent weekends (as more people go to the 2D shows instead). The last 3D movie I remember being packed to capacity was the midnight show for HP8, and even later on on opening day the 3D shows for that weren't even half full.

It's not just the cost difference, but the studios have to work to make the 3D experience worth that extra price (and 3D conversions aren't doing the trick). And 90% of their 3D output just isn't worth paying extra in the first place. But they keep churning it out because it's still more money...

The 3D conversions are a cancer. I've seen about 5 or 6 3D films in the last couple years and the only ones i give any sort of credit to are Avatar and Hugo because they genuinely felt immersive even if the movies themselves weren't the greatest. Surprise, surprise they were shot in 3D and done so by two of the best directors in the world.

 

[Selim844]

The Amazing Spider-Man - $250m domestic, $800m worldwide

 

[Marvin]

I doubt this will be the spider man film to not crack 300 mill, especially with the inflated price.

 

[The Morningstar]

ASM i think will make 350 US. 400 international.

 

[marvelman2006]

ASM will top out at around $270 million domestically, so far a bad word of mouth from photos and 2 trailers and I can see alot of people just skipping it til dvd release plus the fact I have heard several people saying it looks like twilight with spiderman.

I wouldnt be surprised if men in black 3 is a box office hit since its will's first big summer movie since hancock. I would say $245 million domestically.

 

[Doctor Jones]

Yeah, the $200 million range is the best prediction. $300 is reaching.

 

[dark_b]

i think in june it will be easier to see how much ASM could make.

 

[marvelman2006]

Im curious as to how much wrath of the titans will make. Its a sequel to the first remake that got lambasted for crappy 3D and a pitiful story but yet went ahead with another. I say $130 domestic total just because of the hatred towards the first one. I can see the opening weekend numbers being around $36 million but haing some legs.

 

[Selim844]

Does anyone know where to find production budgets for this summers movies? I'm interested in the budgets for Avengers, Amazing Spider-Man, MIB 3 and Prometheus. I have looked for them online but they seem to vary a lot..

 

[The Morningstar]

I think Avengers and Prometheus are above 200 million.

 

[dark_b]

since movies are not realesed we can not have accurate numbers. but all summer movies this summer are very expensive. which is good. because we will get a lot money shots.

 

[The Morningstar]

What are peoples predictions for Prometheus? I'm thinking around the 500 million mark. Looking at Scott's wiki he surprisingly hasn't ever had a real massive box office hit.

 

[DACrowe]

The 3D conversions are a cancer. I've seen about 5 or 6 3D films in the last couple years and the only ones i give any sort of credit to are Avatar and Hugo because they genuinely felt immersive even if the movies themselves weren't the greatest. Surprise, surprise they were shot in 3D and done so by two of the best directors in the world.

I've seen Hugo, Avatar, Toy Story 3 and Tron: Legacy in 3D. Hugo and Tron felt more immersive because of it, but the other two just left me going "that's nice, I guess."

Honestly, the only 3D movie I've seen that I loved the 3D in was Harold and Kumar's Very 3D Christmas....in 3D. The reason is because it just made fun of the gimmicky nature of it so mercilessly that that was half of the jokes.

 

[mclay18]

The 3D conversions are a cancer.

Well, to be fair, not all 3D conversions are terrible. Narnia 3 had some beautiful 3D shots and you can tell the whole thing wasn't rushed.

Oh, and for some movies like Hugo (which we offered solely in 3D), the first two months definitely filled up the theater 75-85% capacity. And another Paramount release, Adventures of Tintin -- we only had one 2D show and four 3D shows.

 

[Iceman]

TASM I'm finding very hard to call. I'll guess somewhere between $250m - $350m domestic but not really much of an idea where in that band.

 

[Raiden]

What are peoples predictions for Prometheus? I'm thinking around the 500 million mark. Looking at Scott's wiki he surprisingly hasn't ever had a real massive box office hit.

I think Prometheus will make around 300 mil, maybe even 400. However, given the stiff competition this summer as well as the fact that Ridley Scott has done decent but not like you said "massive" at the box office, I don't think this movie will do crazy numbers like grossing half a billion at the box office. Prometheus is also appeared to be a thinking man's sci fi, and perhaps it will deter some moviegoers from checking it out. Alien may be a huge name in the sci fi genre, but it hasn't had a huge hit in many years since Aliens. Alien 3, Resurrection, and the two AvP movies were all either average or below average. I think Prometheus will break this trend but who knows by how much.

 

[dark_b]

i think there is no way to know how much money it will make. alien is not in the title,its not an action movie,it will be darker and slower(please its Ridley scott. he doesnt make fast paced movies).

is there any similar movie for reference? please dont say Inception because its not.

 

[The Morningstar]

I just hope don't completely butcher it like they did with Kingdom of Heaven. But i'm confident that if that was the case Scott wouldn't have even considered working with them again.

 

[Shifty]

Prometheus looks to have a solid marketing campaign, so that's a plus. Here is Scott's movies adjusted for inflation, so a $250 domestic total with IMAX and 3D is attainable, maybe $220. Then $300 million worldwide seems appropriate.

1 Gladiator DW $272,594,000 $187,705,427 5/5/00
2 Alien Fox $248,850,300 $80,931,801 5/25/79
3 Hannibal MGM $228,387,400 $165,092,268 2/9/01
4 American Gangster Uni. $148,069,500 $130,164,645 11/2/07
5 Black Hawk Down SonR $146,409,900 $108,638,745 12/28/01
6 Robin Hood Uni. $103,680,800 $105,269,730 5/14/10

 

[The Morningstar]

Didn't Kingdom of Heaven make more than Black Hawk Down?

 

[DACrowe]

KOH bombed at the box office, not least of all because Fox butchered a beautiful drama about the Crusades and contemporary Middle Eastern issues into a slow, meandering action movie with no depth.