Erzengel said:
Think Gruden is riding on his is riding that Super Bowl victory more than his actual coaching abilities. Didn't he rely mostly on his veterans on the teams he was a part of?
Sure. Same can even be said of Tony Dungy. Take Peyton Manning out of the equation and you have a good coach, not a great one, with an absolutely TERRIBLE playoff record, who built his entire team around a single player and was never able to adapt when things got bad for his team.
Dungy's legacy is preserved because he had the good sense to get the hell out of Dodge toward the end of Manning's career before Manning got injured. If Dungy were coaching during the 2011 season, he would've been humiliated and ultimately fired, much in the same way that Jim Caldwell was. The reason Dungy will never return is because he knows that he will never have another Peyton Manning to lean on.
Dungy, Brian Billick are good (not great) coaches, who are part of the second tier of their generation. Top tier of that generation being Belichick, Cowher and Coughlin (mind you, I consider Jimmy Johnson, Mike Holmgren and Bill Parcells to be part of the previous generation who just kinda leaked over into the current one a bit).
There are four other prominent coaches of that generation: Jon Gruden, Jeff Fisher, Andy Reid and Mike Shanahan and the jury is still out as to which tier those men will ultimately land in.
Jon Gruden is young enough that he can (and probably will) come back. I think that return will ultimately determine where his final legacy lies. If he doesn't coach again, I'd say he is in the second tier. If he coaches again and tanks, he could fall into the third tier. If he coaches and excels, he could be a top tier coach of his generation.
Andy Reid, as he stands right now, is lower second tier and arguably third tier with Marvin Lewis. If he actually turns KC around (and I suspect it is a fluke that is predicated by a very easy schedule and will result in one and done), he could make the argument for upper-second and even top tier....Though I'd say even with a Super Bowl ring, all of his missteps suggest that he remains solidly in the second tier. Same with Jeff Fisher.
Shanahan is an interesting one....if he stayed retired, argument could be made that he is top tier. As it is, he is tarnishing his legacy by the day and making it more and more apparent that he rode Elway's coattails. He is, IMO, third tier.
Of the current generation, the only one who I'd say is even in the discussion as elite is Sean Payton. Yes, other coaches have rings...but Payton is the only one who has consistently built teams, adapted, and shown the football IQ needed to be considered elite, IMO.