Another hit for Mel Gibson!

[Catman]

Apocalypto was #1 on Friday!
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2006-12-08&p=.htm

 

[Movies205]

Mel Gibson is a very talented director so good for him, I'll probably end up seeing this soon enough, however the numbers are pretty low this weekend, it's goign be a disappointing weekend

 

[Matt]

I wouldn't call five million a hit, even if it is number 1. That is putting it at 15 million for the weekend (Assuming it holds at 5 million on saturday and sunday). Then assuming it takes the number 1 spot's average drop of 50 % (or higher) next weekend, that will put it at 21.5 million over 2 weekends, lets say it picks up alittle throughout the week, that'll put it at 25 million. The estimated budget is 40 mill, so while it will likely break even. It won't have the legs of The Passion because it lacks pull with the Jeebus folks. So, yeah, it'll probably make 4 or 5 million over budget when all is said and done. Factor in advertising and the fact that I was very generous in some of those numbers (5 million on sunday, 5 million throughout the week, etc)...hmm, it'll be hard pressed to make a profit before DVD.

 

[kypade]

If this film only makes 45-50 million dollars i will eat matt's hat.

 

[Warhammer]

Mel Gibson =
I like him.

 

[Matt]

If this film only makes 45-50 million dollars i will eat matt's hat.

We're talking domestically, right?

Critic response has been so-so. It is incredibly violent and it doesn't have the Jesus appeal (hell, The Passion had little kids taken to it despite the violence because it was Jesus...this movie doesn't have that). It is spoken in a foreign language with subtitles, and again, doesn't have religion to fall back on. It is looking to make 15 million opening weekend (that is a generous estimate too) and with Eragon and Pursuit of Happyness next week, the standard 50-55 % drop could be more like 60-65 %, furthermore, with Rocky Balboa and Night at the Museum the following weekend, it doesn't really have room to stretch its legs.

Internationally it may due better, although there is quite a bit of backlash towards Mel Gibson right now, so who knows.

 

[Matt]

Mel Gibson =
I like him.

Nothin' like a drunken anti-semite to brighten your day, eh?

 

[Warhammer]

lol

 

[Abaddon]

I wonder if the film has any anti-Aztecite themes.

 

[Matt]

I wonder if the film has any anti-Aztecite themes.

Not anti-Aztec but....

Spoiler

For some reason the Jews come out of no where at the end and just wipe out the Mayans.

But thats not even the strange part. It then cuts to Rome in a grave yard. 2 people are talking about how "the tyrannical Jews are destroying everything." One remarks "If only someone was here who could stop them." They walk off, and it pans down to the tombstone which reads "Jesus"...and suddenly the zombified hand of Jesus bursts from the ground. Then the screen reads "The End.....?"

Odd ending I gotta admit, can't wait to see the third part of the trilogy.

 

[Abaddon]

I almost clicked that,bastard.

 

[Matt]

I almost clicked that,bastard.

Its not real. Just a joke from another thread.

 

[Stringer]

Its a trilogy?

 

[Movies205]

I wouldn't call five million a hit, even if it is number 1. That is putting it at 15 million for the weekend (Assuming it holds at 5 million on saturday and sunday). Then assuming it takes the number 1 spot's average drop of 50 % (or higher) next weekend, that will put it at 21.5 million over 2 weekends, lets say it picks up alittle throughout the week, that'll put it at 25 million. The estimated budget is 40 mill, so while it will likely break even. It won't have the legs of The Passion because it lacks pull with the Jeebus folks. So, yeah, it'll probably make 4 or 5 million over budget when all is said and done. Factor in advertising and the fact that I was very generous in some of those numbers (5 million on sunday, 5 million throughout the week, etc)...hmm, it'll be hard pressed to make a profit before DVD.

I think it's too early to tell, but over-all I agree with you. THe movie is far too much of a niche market, the decision to go with subtitles was BAD, now I'm one of those people who say the masses don't get enough credit, but this is one instant where majority wise, the masses are ignornant when it comes to subtitled movies. They think subtitles and it's an immediate turn-off, he got a free-bie with Jesus but it ain't going fly here. But if this movie makes 40-50 mil, IMO it's a success, a niche movie like this making 40-50 million is GREAT, and hopefully it'll put Mel Gibson in perspective, that he's not infallible, some of his decision need to factor in what the mainstream likes.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I dont like Mel's personal opionions on stuff, but he's a good director.

It was a pretty good film.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I think it's too early to tell, but over-all I agree with you. THe movie is far too much of a niche market, the decision to go with subtitles was BAD, now I'm one of those people who say the masses don't get enough credit, but this is one instant where majority wise, the masses are ignornant when it comes to subtitled movies. They think subtitles and it's an immediate turn-off, he got a free-bie with Jesus but it ain't going fly here. But if this movie makes 40-50 mil, IMO it's a success, a niche movie like this making 40-50 million is GREAT, and hopefully it'll put Mel Gibson in perspective, that he's not infallible, some of his decision need to factor in what the mainstream likes.

Im really glad he chose to take the route of subtitles.

 

[Movies205]

Im really glad he chose to take the route of subtitles.

I actually think it's cool but I'm talking about the general public, it's the same thing with King Kong being 3 hours long, and little things like that can have a huge effect on the box office.

 

[Fanticon]

plenty of movies can open at number 1. But it doesnt make em a hit yet. Remember the Covenant? yeah...
I just can't believe it beat out Blood Diamond.

 

[Matt]

Its a trilogy?

Haha, read the "spoilers" I posted to understand.

 

[chesslover]

Hollywood can forgive Roman Polanski but not Mel Gibson? OhhhhhhKayyyyy

 

[The Dark Defender]

plenty of movies can open at number 1. But it doesnt make em a hit yet. Remember the Covenant? yeah...
I just can't believe it beat out Blood Diamond.

Blood Diamond wasn't on many screens.

 

[Catman]

I just got back from watching the movie. It's pretty good! Braveheart and The Passion were better but its still a pretty good movie.

Secondly, the movie will be a hit. Even if Matt is correct lets not forget the international market. I'm sure this movie will be a huge hit in Latin America.

 

[The Dark Defender]

I kinda doubt they were expecting huge numbers from this anyway.

 

[Catman]

1) Kids will be on Christmas vacation soon, so maybe the box office will pick up. Especially since this film has the "gory" violence kids love these days.

2) Word of mouth. Its powerful.

 

[Matt]

1) Kids will be on Christmas vacation soon, so maybe the box office will pick up. Especially since this film has the "gory" violence kids love these days.

2) Word of mouth. Its powerful.

Right now the W.O.M. from critics anyhow is just so-so

As for kids, kids can't get into it. Its R-Rated, and their parents won't take them like they did The Passion as it doesn't have the Jesus thing going for it.