Box Office 2014

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2014 Preview: The 5 Strongest Films from January-March; Russell Crowe, George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Mr. Peabody and LEGOs Lead Promising Slate

BoxOffice begins our 2014 preview by taking a look at the strongest films of the first quarter.
Noah
(Paramount, 3/28)
2014 is full of films aimed at religious crowds, and this biblical tale looks like a slam dunk despite troubling reports that Paramount and director Darren Aronofsky are clashing over the final cut. (For what it's worth, Aronofsky denies the reports.)Star Russell Crowe may have his share of duds, but we're confident that fond memories of Gladiator will lead to a lot of mainstream trust for another epic. Overseas grosses should be very healthy--especially in highly religious countries such as Brazil and Spain

Divergent
(Lionsgate, 3/21)
Lionsgate is raking it in right now thanks to The Hunger Games franchise, but they are wisely setting up Divergent to become another cash cow. Book sales for Divergent are even stronger than The Hunger Games--a promising sign. The main concern here is that people who haven't read the books may see Divergent as Hunger Games rip-off. Even if that happens, there are enough fans to ensure steady grosses. Look for Divergent to post healthy numbers in the key overseas territories--Germany, UK, China, Russia, France--that Catching Fire is currently succeeding in.

The LEGO Movie
(Warner Bros., 2/7)
Warner Bros. steps back into the world of animation with this tongue-in-cheek flick. Families will flock to it and twentysomethings will show up as well in order to get a rush of nostalgia. We're very encouraged by strong activity on Twitter and Facebook--a clear sign that the film's trailers are working. As far as overseas returns go, we're bullish now that the desire for Hollywood's animated efforts abroad is in a Golden Age. (See the Ice Age franchise, the Cars franchise, the Despicable Me franchise, etc.)

Monuments Men
(Sony, 2/7)
Sony's decision to move this George Clooney-directed WWII flick out of the crowded holiday season and into February 2014 should pay off well. The impressive ensemble cast led by Clooney, Matt Damon and Cate Blanchett will make this a must-see for adult crowds. We expect to see an opening north of $20 million followed by strong staying power. Overseas returns should be steady thanks to the respect that Clooney and Damon command in crucial territories such as the UK and France.

Mr. Peabody and Sherman
(Fox/DreamWorks, 3/7)
With March 2012's The Croods, Fox proved capable of nurturing DreamWorks Animation projects by helping the family-friendly flick earn a whopping $589.8 million worldwide. We don't think Mr. Peabody and Sherman will be nearly as successful, but if it can hit half of what The Croods did--an easy goal--then it will be one of the most successful films of the first quarter. Lately, Hollywood's animated efforts have been spotty at home--see Planes, The Smurfs 2 and Turbo--but strong overseas. We wouldn't be surprised if Mr. Peabody and Sherman is another example of an animated flick with an overseas total that far outweighs its domestic take. Expect strong grosses in the UK and Germany.

Honorable Mention: Ride Along (1/17), Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit (1/17), I, Frankenstein (1/24), Need for Speed (3/14), Muppets Most Wanted (3/21).

 

[MrMaooz]

The number one grossing movie will be Transformers 4.

 

[Liam_H]

For WW that's probably a good bet but domestically I don't see HG3 dropping that much. And just for kicks HTTYD 2 as a dark horse.

 

[Baramos]

I don't think the Noah movie will do well, unless it's budget is the right size that it will earn a good enough profit.

Need for Speed has Aaron Paul as the lead, whether that gets a significant boost from Breaking Bad fans remains to be seen, though.

 

[Drizzle]

The number one grossing movie will be Transformers 4.

I think The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 will take that title. The second one was warmly received, it made a boatload of cash and to boot, it ended on a cliffhanger. That pretty much guarantees that everyone who saw the second one and liked it (which is mostly everyone) will see this one.

I doubt Transformers 4 will make as much as the previous two. It'll probably win the summer, though.

The last Hobbit movie will probably end up making huge bank, since it's the last one.

I think it's a given that The Amazing Spider-Man 2 will make more than the first one, but I'm not sure it'll reach $1 billion worldwide.

 

[Wolfwood]

I'm really curious to see how the Lego movie will perform. I wonder if it's novelty will attract or repel people.

 

[PaulRom]

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction ($1.1-1.2B)
2. The Hobbit: There and Back Again ($1.1B)
3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 ($1B)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($850-900M)
5. Interstellar ($800M)
6. X-Men: Days of Future Past ($670M)
7. How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($650M)
8. Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($600M)
9. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($540M)
10. The LEGO Movie/Rio 2 ($500M+)

 

[Warhammer]

I keep thinking Divergent is going to bomb. Out of all the teen novel adaptations that emerged since Twilight in 2008, only The Hunger Games franchise has been successful unless I am missing one. It's a fad that just isn't catching on like the movie execs think. Countless tries have been wastes of money.

 

[Shifty]

01. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 $400M
02. Transformers: Age of Extinction $350M
03. The Hobbit: There and Back Again $300M
04. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 $280M
05. Interstellar $275M
06. How to Train Your Dragon 2 $240M
07. X-Men: Days of Future Past $230M
08. Captain America: The Winter Soldier $210M
09. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $209M
10. The Lego Movie $205M

Wild Cards: Divergent, Godzilla, Maleficent,
A Million Ways to Die in the West, Edge of Tomorrow,
Guardians of the Galaxy, Dumb and Dumber To,
Big Hero 6
I could see them passing the $200M domestic mark or not.

I'm really curious to see how the Lego movie will perform. I wonder if it's novelty will attract or repel people.

I think anyone 12 and under who plays with Legos will want to see it plus it could be a fun date movie for Valentine's for a younger crowd.

 

[MrMaooz]

Edge of Tomorrow and Maleficent could be big sleeper hits, financially and critically.

 

[Shifty]

I keep thinking Divergent is going to bomb. Out of all the teen novel adaptations that emerged since Twilight in 2008, only The Hunger Games franchise has been successful unless I am missing one. It's a fad that just isn't catching on like the movie execs think. Countless tries have been wastes of money.

I think partially the studios don't get the right talent involved and when marketed don't appeal like Harry Potter or The Hunger Games.

Summit was behind Twilight and they seem sure with a script being prepared for a sequel and two release dates already pencilled in. Now of course those could always been cancelled. I don't think it will be big like The Hunger Games or Twilight but with an $80 million budget it still needs to do $150 domestically. They must know what the book sales are like

 

[Liam_H]

22 Jump Street could be the break out comedy of the summer.

 

[MrMaooz]

What other comedies are coming out?

 

[Liam_H]

Chef, Neighbors, Tammy. Former has RDJ while the latter has Melissa McCarthy.

 

[Wolfwood]

I still think Paranormal Activity has legs and I think the Marked Ones will do really well come this January.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

The Hungers Games: Mockingjay Part 1 and The Hobbit: There and Back Again will probably be the biggest earners come 2014. If all goes well, I'm interested to see how much Godzilla makes.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I'm hoping that Guardians, Big Hero 6, The Lego Movie and Noah all have big break throughs.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

TF4 will more than likely win the summer with TASM2 a very close second.

 

[Liam_H]

Nah too boring, lets hope HTTYD 2 can pull a Despicable Me 2.

 

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1. Transformers: Age of Extinction ($1.1-1.2B)
2. The Hobbit: There and Back Again ($1.1B)
3. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 ($1B)
4. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($850-900M)
5. Interstellar ($800M)
6. X-Men: Days of Future Past ($670M)
7. How to Train Your Dragon 2 ($650M)
8. Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($600M)
9. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($540M)
10. The LEGO Movie/Rio 2 ($500M+)

I wonder if Hunger Games will be able to reach a billion worldwide. Sure, the first sequel has improved over the original movie, but the international numbers still aren't that impressive compared to some other big franchises.

 

[kvz5]

Quick thoughts: I don't see Divergent doing well. I'm curious about how well/bad Noah will do. I think Exodus will do much better than it with the holiday release date, Ridley Scott going back to historical epics, etc.

 

[PaulRom]

I wonder if Hunger Games will be able to reach a billion worldwide. Sure, the first sequel has improved over the original movie, but the international numbers still aren't that impressive compared to some other big franchises.

Catching Fire is about to hit $800M worldwide, so the other two movies will still have a huge audience. I don't see them making less. Plus, Mockingjay Part 1 is the first of a two-part finale, and finales tend to be the biggest in the franchise (Dark Knight, Lord of the Rings, Harry Potter, etc.). So even if Part 1 doesn't reach a billion, I'm confident that Part 2 will.

 

[Liam_H]

For the next two HG movies to hit $1 billion it needs to perform better in the Asian territories. Big areas like China and Japan have room to grow but since it didn't happen with this movie, there's no guarantee it will happen with the next two.

 

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2014 Preview (April-June): Superheroes 'Spider-Man', 'X-Men', & 'Captain America' Poised to Dominate; 'How to Train Your Dragon 2' Could Soar

BoxOffice's 2014 preview continues with a sneak peak at the second quarter (April, May, and June).
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
(Disney/Marvel, 4/4)
Marvel is stepping outside of their usual summer/holiday release periods in an effort to position this Captain America sequel for bigger domestic and foreign success. Fans have responded well to Winter Soldier's first trailer and, with a well-received film, we're confident this pic will follow in the footsteps of Thor: The Dark World by posting gains domestically and abroad with the "Avengers bump" still in full swing. Getting a jump on the summer season will help the film's chances at a run toward $500 million (or more) globally.

The Amazing Spider-Man 2
(Sony, 5/2)
Director Marc Webb returns to the rebooted franchise for this sequel that promises to delve into Spider-Man's rogue gallery of villains on an unprecedented level. Fans are mixed over what this might mean for the future of the series, but the general perception is that this approach feels a bit fresher than 2012's retelling of the character's origins. Ultimately, word of mouth will determine whether this sequel can build on its predecessor's $262 million domestic haul, but foreign business is poised to continue growing past the $500 million mark. A Chinese release alone could bring in north of $50 million.

Godzilla
(Warner Bros., 5/16)
Early skepticism around the brand's domestic appeal aside, this remake's first trailer has generated noticeable buzz since its release in early December. Enough time has passed since the toxic reception of 1998's semi-blockbuster for modern audiences to go in with renewed curiosity.The dramatic feel and ensemble cast of stars on the rise (Aaron-Taylor Johnson, Elizabeth Olsen) and respected veterans (Ken Watanabe, David Strathairn, Bryan Cranston) should help broaden the audience base beyond that of Pacific Rim. Look for strong international business, especially from Asian strongholds such as Japan, China, and Russia.

X-Men: Days of Future Past
(Fox, 5/23)
As the first superhero flick to center around time travel, we expect this X-Men entry to reinvigorate the series by offering audiences a fresh concept. X-Men's biggest draw (Hugh Jackman's Wolverine) leads the story, while the returning Ian McKellen, Patrick Stewart, and First Class' Jennifer Lawrence aim to bring in moviegoers who sat out for the recent spin-offs. 2006's The Last Stand remains the series' top earner with $234 million domestic and $225 million overseas. With the addition of 3D surcharges and expanded markets in Russia, Brazil, and China, Days of Future Past is expected to set new revenue benchmarks for the franchise.

How to Train Your Dragon 2
(Fox/DreamWorks, 6/13)
Four years after the phenomenal word of mouth of the first film, How to Train Your Dragon 2 will represent the summer's first and only animated release with blockbuster aspirations--a successful strategy for DreamWorks Animation in past years with the Shrek series and 2012's Madagascar 3.The first Dragon boasted an incredibly leggy domestic run and has since become DreamWorks' strongest brand. Adults (critics included) adored the original 2010 entry, goodwill that should carry over to this sequel. Another beloved film would position this to become one of 2014's biggest hits.

Honorable Mentions: Rio 2 (4/11), Transcendence (4/18), The Other Woman (4/25), Neighbors (Universal, 5/9), Maleficent (5/30), and 22 Jump Street (Sony, 6/13)

 

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2014 Preview (July-September): Michael Bay's Fourth 'Transformers' Leads Tepid Slate, Supported By 'Dawn of the Planet of the Apes', Melissa McCarthy, & Marvel's 'Guardians of the Galaxy'

We take a look at the beginning of 2014's second half (July, August, September).
Transformers: Age of Extinction
(Paramount, 6/27)
Set for release at the end of the second quarter, the fourth Transformers installment will actually generate most of its business in the third quarter. Michael Bay's signature style of action should attract moviegoers again, while casting Mark Wahlberg as the new lead is a smart play against the challenge of replacing Shia LaBeouf's familiar presence. We expect a decline from Dark of the Moon's $352 million domestic tally, but the sequel's emphasis on foreign production should reward the studio with another massive overseas take--most notably in China and the U.K. This is one of the few 2014 releases with strong odds of a $1 billion global run.

Tammy
(Warner Bros., 7/2)
If the past year proved anything, it's that women are a force to be reckoned with at the box office. Melissa McCarthy's growing popularity in the wake of Bridesmaids, Identity Thief, and The Heat will be the key factor behind this road trip comedy's mass appeal. It doesn't hurt that Warner Bros. knows how to effectively market summer comedies (see The Hangover, Horrible Bosses, and We're the Millers). No footage has been released yet, unfortunately.

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
(Fox, 7/11)
2011's series reboot proved a much bigger success than expected, banking a solid $177 million stateside and an impressive $306 million overseas. We think the goodwill of the last pic combined with a fairly dry slate of late summer releases will propel this film past its predecessor's $55 million stateside opening. A global total beyond $500 million is likely when considering the addition of 3D to the sequel's box office arsenal

Guardians of the Galaxy
(Disney/Marvel, 8/1)
If there's a wild card slot for one film with blockbuster makings, it goes to this. Marvel's continuing expansion of the Avengers-centric universe takes a turn for the esoteric with Guardians of the Galaxy, set to feature characters that non-fans have zero familiarity with. Reports suggest the film will take on a Star Wars-like swashbuckling vibe. There's probably no middle ground here: the pic will either fly high or become Marvel's first box office stumble. Given their track record so far though, it's hard to bet against them.

Hercules
(Paramount, 7/25)
No footage has been released for Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson's turn as the titular character, but his growing box office appeal shouldn't be underestimated with a big summer release. If director Brett Ratner can turn out a crowd-pleasing action/adventure flick, this stands to do stronger business than Johnson's The Scorpion King ($91 million domestic, $74 million overseas) back in 2002. The dry release slate of late summer could also help drive interest.

Honorable Mentions: Sex Tape (7/25), Get On Up (8/8), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (8/8), The Expendables 3 (8/15), Dolphin Tale 2 (9/19)