Box Office 2015

[Wildcard]

No way TFA is getting anywhere near $700 million domestically. The fact that people still have their predictions set so high for this is incredibly laughable.

 

[Marvin]

No way TFA is getting anywhere near $700 million domestically. The fact that people still have their predictions set so high for this is incredibly laughable.

I'm open to it doing big total domestic numbers, unlike both jw and avengers it's got that no competition for weeks on end cameron spot and it's very much a domestic event. If those could pull off 600 in the summer(weak comp aside), this should be doing similar given it's circumstance.
It's really the release date and intl audience that's the wild card here. I doubt even cameron could pull off his feats in the middle of may.

that being said nothing is touching Avatars WW numbers. the biggest films are like what, half of that...

 

[Tacit Ronin]

What about overseas? Does Europe and Asia have Star Wars fever like America?

 

[Tilapia]

Asia, no... but you have to keep in mind, a lot of policies have changed in terms of Hollywood's relationships to foreign markets. The originals actually never debuted in Japan until very recently, and the prequels were still breaking records there. This is going to be huge in Japan. China? It's a wild card. Obviously its going to be released a lot later than virtually every other market, due to China's December policy for December films, but that would allow even more hype and anticipation if the marketing teams play their hands correctly.

2 billion overseas is a stretch, 1.5 billion? Not so much I feel. So I think this should easily clear 2 billion, with a ceiling at 2.5 billion WW. If it wants a shot at beating Avatar, it will have to do close to a billion domestically, and that isn't happening with the films due out later next spring, plus the rest of the Holiday season competition. I know I am going to seeing The Revenant most likely, and there will be other Oscar buzz films coming out then as well.

 

[Rocketman]

Avater made 2 Billion just from overseas alone. Just think about that for a moment. Nothing is coming close to that anytime soon. Domestic box office is another story.

It's been 6 years. It's soon enough.

 

[Shifty]

No way TFA is getting anywhere near $700 million domestically. The fact that people still have their predictions set so high for this is incredibly laughable.

Empire adjusted for inflation $818,826,500
Avatar adjusted for inflation $811,108,900
Jedi adjusted for inflation $784,455,500
Menace adjusted for inflation $753,202,700
Jurassic World $651,519,326
The Avengers adjusted for inflation $641,189,300
Sith adjusted for inflation $494,767,000

I think it is fair to say that TFA could reach $700 million if the mediocre Jurassic World can reach $651 million with IMAX and 3D prices. All that's stoping The Force Awakens is The Force Awakens.

Jurassic World found an audience to watch it repeatedly during the summer season with stronger competition than what Star Wars will face in December/January.

2 billion overseas is a stretch, 1.5 billion? Not so much I feel. So I think this should easily clear 2 billion, with a ceiling at 2.5 billion WW. If it wants a shot at beating Avatar, it will have to do close to a billion domestically, and that isn't happening with the films due out later next spring, plus the rest of the Holiday season competition. I know I am going to seeing The Revenant most likely, and there will be other Oscar buzz films coming out then as well.

This year's Oscar/holiday film crop doesn't look that strong box office wise. The top ones won't rise higher than around $150 M (The Hateful Eight, Joy).

Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - The last one in 2011 made $133M and opens against Star Wars. It will be crushed on opening weekend.

Sisters - Tina Fey and Amy Poehler may get $60M but they've never done well at the box office and they're up against Star Wars.

Mockingjay Part 2 will have made 90% of its grosses respectively when TFA arrives. The Good Dinosaur will have made 80%.

$150 M and under
Ride Along 2
Joy
The Hateful Eight

$100M and under
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip
Sisters
The Big Short
Daddy's Home
The Revenant
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
The Nut Job 2


$50 M and under
Point Break
Concussion
The Forest
Norm of the North
The 5th Wave
Bridge of Spies
Steve Jobs
Spotlight
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Anomalisa

 

[MadVillainy]

Lots of Box Office disappointments this weak
http://variety.com/2015/film/box-of...h-hunter-paranormal-activity-flop-1201626122/

PA is safe because it allegedly is the last in the series and also it didnt cost that much to make

 

[Drizzle]

Not really surprising. The Last Witch Hunter got horrible reviews, Paranormal Activity is a tired franchise, and Steve Jobs is more of an Oscar-baity smaller film than a blockbuster. The Martian is safe at the top until Spectre comes out.

 

[chamber-music]

Paranormal Activity is fine due to the Blumhouse business model. It is almost impossible for his films to make a loss.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Jurassic World $1665,7 million
2. Furious 7 $1511,7 million
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1402,8 million
4. Minions $1154,3 million
5. Inside Out $842,2 million
6. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation $680 million
7. Fifty Shades of Grey $569,7 million
8. Cinderella $542,4 million
9. Ant-Man $493,8 million
10. San Andreas $470,5 million
11. Terminator: Genisys $440,2 million
12. Kingsman: The Secret Service $413,7 million
13. Home $386 million
14. The Martian $385,9 million
15. Monster Hunt $384,8 million
16. Mad Max: Fury Road $374,7 million
17. Taken 3 $325,8 million
18. Hotel Transylvania 2 $316,1 million
19. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $311,6 million
20. The Divergent Series: Insurgent $297 million

 

[Lord]

They could have more more money out of Paranormal activity if they wanted though, they simply should have marketed it more. 4 was the last one most people knew to be in the theaters, seems like they don't realy mind ending this franchise in a mere whisper.

 

[Wildcard]

Empire adjusted for inflation $818,826,500
Avatar adjusted for inflation $811,108,900
Jedi adjusted for inflation $784,455,500
Menace adjusted for inflation $753,202,700
Jurassic World $651,519,326
The Avengers adjusted for inflation $641,189,300
Sith adjusted for inflation $494,767,000

I think it is fair to say that TFA could reach $700 million if the mediocre Jurassic World can reach $651 million with IMAX and 3D prices. All that's stoping The Force Awakens is The Force Awakens.

Jurassic World found an audience to watch it repeatedly during the summer season with stronger competition than what Star Wars will face in December/January.



This year's Oscar/holiday film crop doesn't look that strong box office wise. The top ones won't rise higher than around $150 M (The Hateful Eight, Joy).

Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - The last one in 2011 made $133M and opens against Star Wars. It will be crushed on opening weekend.

Sisters - Tina Fey and Amy Poehler may get $60M but they've never done well at the box office and they're up against Star Wars.

Mockingjay Part 2 will have made 90% of its grosses respectively when TFA arrives. The Good Dinosaur will have made 80%.

$150 M and under
Ride Along 2
Joy
The Hateful Eight

$100M and under
Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip
Sisters
The Big Short
Daddy's Home
The Revenant
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
The Nut Job 2


$50 M and under
Point Break
Concussion
The Forest
Norm of the North
The 5th Wave
Bridge of Spies
Steve Jobs
Spotlight
Brooklyn
Carol
The Danish Girl
Anomalisa

Adjusted inflation is irrelevant. And your personal feelings aside, Jurassic World still grossed $1.6 billion so obviously not too mediocre for audiences. In the case of TFA, I see it topping out at $1.4 billion, but it ain't gonna be the biggest movie ever nor the number one movie of 2015.

This has happened before with a Star Wars movie, where people overhyped what the numbers were going to be, only for it to not really be anywhere close.

People are expecting a $215 million domestic gross opening weekend during a period where (IIRC) no movie has opened to more than $73 million opening weekend, the holidays are in effect & there will be a decent amount of holdovers as well a few movies being released the same day as TFA.

Jurassic World didn't have to deal with this, they were basically clear for a full 2-3 weeks or so to clean up house & break the records they broke. Not to mention it was 100% unexpected, none of it was predicted by anybody.

The mere fact that people are predicting TFA will be the biggest movie ever is the exact reason it will not be.

 

[Shifty]

Adjusted inflation is irrelevant. And your personal feelings aside, Jurassic World still grossed $1.6 billion so obviously not too mediocre for audiences. In the case of TFA, I see it topping out at $1.4 billion, but it ain't gonna be the biggest movie ever nor the number one movie of 2015.

This has happened before with a Star Wars movie, where people overhyped what the numbers were going to be, only for it to not really be anywhere close.

People are expecting a $215 million domestic gross opening weekend during a period where (IIRC) no movie has opened to more than $73 million opening weekend, the holidays are in effect & there will be a decent amount of holdovers as well a few movies being released the same day as TFA.

Jurassic World didn't have to deal with this, they were basically clear for a full 2-3 weeks or so to clean up house & break the records they broke. Not to mention it was 100% unexpected, none of it was predicted by anybody.

The mere fact that people are predicting TFA will be the biggest movie ever is the exact reason it will not be.

Well I didn't say anything about opening weekend or top film ever just that based on the audience numbers of the previous movies (I should've included number of tickets sold too) along with Avatar and Jurassic World it has a fair chance of earning more than $700 M domestically.

The Hobbit scored $84 M for its opening weekend on December 14, 2012.

The Force Awakens - December 18, 2015
Avatar - December 18, 2009
Titanic - December 19, 1997

TFA could have a huge box office opening or it could follow the same pattern of the two top performing domestic films of the last 30 years but now with more IMAX and 3D tickets and a much shorter running time. Plus being a sequel to Return of the Jedi.

I did post in this thread earlier that all the record setting films were not expected to become the top grossing film of all time or have the biggest opening weekend and all the films that did have high expectations never seem to reach them. I still believe that. Avatar will hold on but TFA will make it close.

 

[:eek:]

"Spectre" Breaks Records In UK, Europe


By Garth Franklin Sunday November 1st 2015 09:07PM
"Spectre" is already breaking box-office records.
The new James Bond film opened in six territories last week and has shattered box office records in nearly every market in which it has been released.
In total the film has already earned a whopping $80.4 million, most of which ($63.8 million) came from the U.K. where in its first seven days of release it scored the biggest opening of all time in UK box office history.
The film overtook its predecessor "Skyfall" for the highest seven-day gross in UK box office history, and beat long-standing champ "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban" for the opening record.
Norway, Finland, Denmark and Sweden also saw the film overtake "Skyfall" by as much as 30%. The film opens in the United States and many major territories this Friday, with several other key markets like Australia getting it next week.
Though plenty of critics have yet to weigh in, reviews overall for the film place it third in Craig's run as 007 - "Spectre" scoring a 69/100 on Metacritic and 77% - 7.2/10 on Rotten Tomatoes. Previous Craig-led Bond film scores were: "Casino Royale" (MC: 81, RT: 95% - 7.8/10), "Quantum of Solace" (MC: 58, RT: 65% - 6.1/10) and "Skyfall" (MC: 81, RT: 93% - 8.2/10)
Source: The Guardian

 

[Wildcard]

Well I didn't say anything about opening weekend or top film ever just that based on the audience numbers of the previous movies (I should've included number of tickets sold too) along with Avatar and Jurassic World it has a fair chance of earning more than $700 M domestically.

The Hobbit scored $84 M for its opening weekend on December 14, 2012.

The Force Awakens - December 18, 2015
Avatar - December 18, 2009
Titanic - December 19, 1997

TFA could have a huge box office opening or it could follow the same pattern of the two top performing domestic films of the last 30 years but now with more IMAX and 3D tickets and a much shorter running time. Plus being a sequel to Return of the Jedi.

I did post in this thread earlier that all the record setting films were not expected to become the top grossing film of all time or have the biggest opening weekend and all the films that did have high expectations never seem to reach them. I still believe that. Avatar will hold on but TFA will make it close.

I have a hard time believing that TFA will get so close if so many other films haven't been able to quite hit the mark. Using Jurassic World as an example again, it got up to $1.6 billion & was still $400-$500 million off from knocking Titanic from its spot. That's a lot of money.

I don't want anyone to get the wrong idea, I do wish the movie well & I want it to be a success, but I definitely feel that most are overshooting it here. The movie will do fantastic & although I'm not a fan of SW I'm sure it will be a fantastic piece of cinema, but it's not making $2 billion.

If Avengers: AoU has taught me anything this year, it's that the more you expect one film in particular to be the biggest movie ever, the less likely it is to actually happen. Things like that typically happen out of nowhere & take everyone by surprise, which will be the case when Avatar & Titanic are finally knocked from their respective spots.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Jurassic World $1665,9 million
2. Furious 7 $1514,8 million
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1402,8 million
4. Minions $1155,8 million
5. Inside Out $842,5 million
6. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation $682,1 million
7. Fifty Shades of Grey $569,7 million
8. Cinderella $542,4 million
9. Ant-Man $513,8 million
10. San Andreas $470,5 million
11. Terminator: Genisys $440,6 million
12. The Martian $430,1 million
13. Kingsman: The Secret Service $414 million
14. Home $386 million
15. Monster Hunt $384,8 million
16. Mad Max: Fury Road $374,7 million
17. Hotel Transylvania 2 $374,1 million
18. Taken 3 $326,5 million
19. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $315,9 million
20. The Divergent Series: Insurgent $297 million

 

[Lord]

Alvin and the Chipmunks The Road Chip - The last one in 2011 made $133M and opens against Star Wars. It will be crushed on opening weekend.

As much as i wish that franchise would just die, it's not happening, the second film was in direct competition with Avatar itself and that possibly even helped it (it was the highest grossing instalment in the franchise so far), as popular films sometimes seem to have the effect of making people also want to go to the cinemas more in order to see the other films. Alvin voice effects on popular songs also seem to still be popular, not just with children, but also with teen girls, i mean, look at the views of this thing:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLEvd2Ff6cg

And it wasn't even an official songs from any of the films, just some fan changing the tunes. It's not going to make 500 million, but probably 300 million on the very least, and since they're not very expensive, it will be a success for the studio. It's also going to be the only other kids film around if i'm not mistaken, while Star Wars as a brand has usualy been kid friendly, some parents might feel it's better to show something more "light" to their kids.

Alvin being placed at that timetable was probably smart strategy.

 

[:eek:]

"Force Awakens" May Open To $225M?

By Garth Franklin Monday November 9th 2015 05:31PM
Five weeks out from release, the first tracking numbers for J.J. Abrams' "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" have been revealed and these early estimates of the film's opening weekend are astonishing.
Collider reports that as of this week, the film is tracking to open to $225 million domestically - well ahead of current opening weekend record holder "Jurassic World" which opened to $208 million this past Summer. It's also ahead of "Marvel's The Avengers" which previously held the title for several years with $207 million.
In fact these early estimates could be on the low-end of the scale with the film set to play non-stop from Thursday night through Monday morning in cinemas around the country - something neither "Jurassic World" or "Avengers" have done.
"The Force Awakens" will also have no competition on IMAX screens for a month. Even so, no December movie has ever grossed over $100 million on opening weekend - let alone double that, so 'Force' is going to be break records left and right should it match predictions.
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens" opens December 18th.

 

[Rocketman]

"Force Awakens" May Open To $225M?

By Garth Franklin Monday November 9th 2015 05:31PM
Five weeks out from release, the first tracking numbers for J.J. Abrams' "Star Wars: The Force Awakens" have been revealed and these early estimates of the film's opening weekend are astonishing.
Collider reports that as of this week, the film is tracking to open to $225 million domestically - well ahead of current opening weekend record holder "Jurassic World" which opened to $208 million this past Summer. It's also ahead of "Marvel's The Avengers" which previously held the title for several years with $207 million.
In fact these early estimates could be on the low-end of the scale with the film set to play non-stop from Thursday night through Monday morning in cinemas around the country - something neither "Jurassic World" or "Avengers" have done.
"The Force Awakens" will also have no competition on IMAX screens for a month. Even so, no December movie has ever grossed over $100 million on opening weekend - let alone double that, so 'Force' is going to be break records left and right should it match predictions.
"Star Wars: The Force Awakens" opens December 18th.

Why are people pretending this isn't the biggest movie ever?

 

[Iceman]

$225m in December with hopefully some nice legs to support that huge number. Awesome stuff!!

 

[Golgo-13]

People are generally broke around December due to X-Mas.

 

[Iceman]

And now they will be broke because of Star Wars. t:

Isn't seeing Star Wars as a family a great thing to during the Xmas hols? Should be entertaining for granddads and kids as well as everyone else.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Jurassic World $1666,1 million
2. Furious 7 $1514,8 million
3. Avengers: Age of Ultron $1402,8 million
4. Minions $1156,5 million
5. Inside Out $850,2 million
6. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation $682,3 million
7. Fifty Shades of Grey $569,7 million
8. Cinderella $542,4 million
9. Ant-Man $517,4 million
10. San Andreas $470,5 million
11. The Martian $459,5 million
12. Terminator: Genisys $440,6 million
13. Kingsman: The Secret Service $414 million
14. Hotel Transylvania 2 $402,7 million
15. Home $386 million
16. Monster Hunt $384,8 million
17. Mad Max: Fury Road $374,7 million
18. Taken 3 $326,5 million
19. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water $315,9 million
20. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials $298,5 million

 

[Rocketman]

And now they will be broke because of Star Wars. t:

Isn't seeing Star Wars as a family a great thing to during the Xmas hols? Should be entertaining for granddads and kids as well as everyone else.

It's going to absolutely kill. I'm telling you. Bigger than Avatar.

 

[metaphysician]

"Bigger than Avatar" is getting *waaay* ahead of things. It could break 2 billion and still not outgross Titanic, let alone Avatar.