Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[Zarex]

You think it's bad for Marvel to not try harder with movies?

Yet you seem to be ok with the Wonder Woman director shakeup and the horror show that is FFINO. Why is that, exactly? Are you grading on a curve?

 

[dalonewolf]

I am gonna make it simple for you, forget the 'no 1' rankings and the opening weekend
Give a number,the final WW gross, which according to you will be failure for Ant-man to not cross, is it 300m, 350m ,400m?

400 mil will make the flim break even anyhing above 450 will be in the land of profit.
But said earlier that the flim will do no less than 450 ww due to China marvel has good ties there and I see the flim doing 120---150 there.
And yes it will be a box office bomb if the flim doesn't gross over 400 ww
What you all have to remember when counting boxoffice there's a fact that most avoid to talk about the budget and the marketing cost must be minus out of the movies final gross.
So if the flim makes 350 ww if you take just the production budget out of that which is 140 your left with 220 and all of that will be the foreign market which was told to me was a 60/40 which only leaves 140mil and everyone in this thread has said the marketing cost was 100mil so if the flim only gross 120 dom it will only take in a 20mil profit which isn't considerd profit on a 140 mil dollar flim

 

[dalonewolf]

Marvel only made this movie because it was in development for 8 odd years and they wanted to get it over with, the marketing wasn't as much as GoTG or AoU, you are really deluded if you think Marvel was banking on it hard, it was given a cold shoulder a lot of times by them, and they weren't even sure if this is phase 2 or phase 3, they just released it as a stand alone, I doubt they have plans of sequel

Each and everyone of the Marvel properties being released have a set purpose, AoU and Civil War are build up to IW 1 anad 2, Thor 3 and Doctor Strange are set to open the fantasy/magical element of MCU, Black Panther has the International/Minority appeal, The InHumans are the MCU's Mutants, GoTG introduced and developed Thanos/Infinity stone/ and the cosmic nature of the MCU plus it was their version of 'Fantastic Four', Daredevil introduces street heroes and the defenders, Captain Marvel shuts up the feminists, Spider-man is well Spider man

While Ant man is just stand alone, one shot movie

Which is why Edgar Wright wanted it to stand alone I didn't understand at first but I guess I do now

 

[JtheDreamer]

400 mil will make the flim break even anyhing above 450 will be in the land of profit.
But said earlier that the flim will do no less than 450 ww due to China marvel has good ties there and I see the flim doing 120---150 there.
And yes it will be a box office bomb if the flim doesn't gross over 400 ww
What you all have to remember when counting boxoffice there's a fact that most avoid to talk about the budget and the marketing cost must be minus out of the movies final gross.
So if the flim makes 350 ww if you take just the production budget out of that which is 140 your left with 220 and all of that will be the foreign market which was told to me was a 60/40 which only leaves 140mil and everyone in this thread has said the marketing cost was 100mil so if the flim only gross 120 dom it will only take in a 20mil profit which isn't considerd profit on a 140 mil dollar flim

Production budget was $130million chief, not 140. Exactly how much marketing money do you think they spent on this? Did you ever consider that some of that marketing is a write-off since it happens within their own channels (i.e. Disney, ABC)?

Even if they spent $150 million marketing, combine that with their production budge you're still only talking $280 million. There is no way in hell they "barely" make their money back or breakeven at a $400mil WW haul. It's pretty much a comfortable lock when it comes to being profitable.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Which is why Edgar Wright wanted it to stand alone I didn't understand at first but I guess I do now

Oh ya, a stand-alone Ant-Man from an obscure director with no ties to the film universe they built would have done even better. On what planet?

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Guess who made it into my ignore list ?

Now you know why he's been on mine since last year after GotG came out. He couldn't stop talking cr@p on there and then going on the DC forums to bash Marvel and its MCU fans. He's nothing more than a pathetic BO thread troll.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Which is why Edgar Wright wanted it to stand alone I didn't understand at first but I guess I do now

You have no idea what you're talking about now. Just leave already and return to your beloved BvS and SS forums.

 

[GL's Light]

As a broad rule of thumb, factoring in both marketing costs and home entertainment revenue, if the worldwide gross is 2.5X the production budget a film will yield a decent profit. If the worldwide gross is 3X the production budget then you get into really good profits.

 

[Spiderdevil]

400 mil will make the flim break even anyhing above 450 will be in the land of profit.
But said earlier that the flim will do no less than 450 ww due to China marvel has good ties there and I see the flim doing 120---150 there.
And yes it will be a box office bomb if the flim doesn't gross over 400 ww
What you all have to remember when counting boxoffice there's a fact that most avoid to talk about the budget and the marketing cost must be minus out of the movies final gross.

Hmm so 400m on a 130m movie is 'bomb' margin for you? That is about 3.08 times the budget. MOS made 2.96 times its budget, MOS is a bomb by your logic right?

And 120-150m in China? Are you out of our Goddamn Mind?

Anyways, take a rest, when the final box-office numbers are decided or atleast an estimate is, and if it is lesser than 400M, then come along with your theory about how it is a failure, till then, lay off the 'facts' about it opening in 'empty' theaters and 'not being no 1' in any foreign territories

 

[dalonewolf]

Production budget was $130million chief, not 140. Exactly how much marketing money do you think they spent on this? Did you ever consider that some of that marketing is a write-off since it happens within their own channels (i.e. Disney, ABC)?

Even if they spent $150 million marketing, combine that with their production budge you're still only talking $280 million. There is no way in hell they "barely" make their money back or breakeven at a $400mil WW haul. It's pretty much a comfortable lock when it comes to being profitable.

But who's to say the movie will make that's back domesticly??
What's ever it don't make domestic takes aways form it foreign
First and foremost all studios get their budgets back before the foreign split.
So if antman makes 110 domestic the rest will be taking out of the foreign box office .
So making 400 mil worldwide isn't where we all want this movie to be because you have to minus everything they spent on the movie .
Like age of ultron form my understanding marvel spent 400mil
On production and marketing and the overall boxoffice is at 1.4
With 450 dom so aou really made 1bil in profit rather than 1.4bil in profit

 

[Spiderdevil]

Now you know why he's been on mine since last year after GotG came out. He couldn't stop talking cr@p on there and then going on the DC forums to bash Marvel and its MCU fans. He's nothing more than a pathetic BO thread troll.

I once questioned him about BvS being a lock at a billion, he was saying 'it will do 2 billion easy', he then accused me of being biased and 'against DC/WB morals' and what not

 

[Spiderdevil]

400 mil will make the flim break even anyhing above 450 will be in the land of profit.
But said earlier that the flim will do no less than 450 ww due to China marvel has good ties there and I see the flim doing 120---150 there.
And yes it will be a box office bomb if the flim doesn't gross over 400 ww
What you all have to remember when counting boxoffice there's a fact that most avoid to talk about the budget and the marketing cost must be minus out of the movies final gross.

Hmm so 400m on a 130m movie is 'bomb' margin for you? That is about 3.08 times the budget. MOS made 2.96 times its budget, MOS is a bomb by your logic right?

And 120-150m in China? Are you out of our Goddamn Mind?

Anyways, take a rest, when the final box-office numbers are decided or atleast an estimate is, and if it is lesser than 400M, then come along with your theory about how it is a failure, till then, lay off the 'facts' about it opening in 'empty' theaters and 'not being no 1' in any foreign territories

 

[JtheDreamer]

But who's to say the movie will make that's back domesticly??
What's ever it don't make domestic takes aways form it foreign
First and foremost all studios get their budgets back before the foreign split.
So if antman makes 110 domestic the rest will be taking out of the foreign box office .
So making 400 mil worldwide isn't where we all want this movie to be because you have to minus everything they spent on the movie .
Like age of ultron form my understanding marvel spent 400mil
On production and marketing and the overall boxoffice is at 1.4
With 450 dom so aou really made 1bil in profit rather than 1.4bil in profit

"These days, the once all-important U.S. moviegoer is taking a backseat to moviegoers across the globe — particularly in the exploding Asian markets. Just two decades ago, overseas box office routinely accounted for less than half of a movie’s total haul. Today, studios expect a 60-40 split favoring international box office. These days, as American viewers drift in ever-greater number from traditional film and television to their smartphones and tablets for content, the foreign take for movies is often 75% or better."

http://deadline.com/2014/09/american-box-office-importance-studios-oversas-841427/

Again, INTERNATIONALLY is where film studios are now making their money when it comes to these kinds of films. There is no danger here of it not being profitable, especially when once again you consider a lot of their marketing efforts happen in-house with Disney and ABC. They're "shrinking marketing payrolls and expanding their global reach."

 

[JtheDreamer]

The international boxoffice only have really expanded in the last 3 years it's much bigger in 2015 then it was in 2011

Oh an btw, from the same Deadline article I just posted for you:

"Over the four years ending in 2012, international box office surged an astonishing 25%, from $27.7 billion to $34.7 billion, the MPAA reports. U.S. revenues, meanwhile, are seeing incremental increases at best, and this year will see a likely drop in box office income."

Those were four years ENDING in 2012 (i.e. 2008-2012). International expansion has been going on a lot longer than 3 years.

 

[dalonewolf]

Hmm so 400m on a 130m movie is 'bomb' margin for you? That is about 3.08 times the budget. MOS made 2.96 times its budget, MOS is a bomb by your logic right?

And 120-150m in China? Are you out of our Goddamn Mind?

Anyways, take a rest, when the final box-office numbers are decided or atleast an estimate is, and if it is lesser than 400M, then come along with your theory about how it is a failure, till then, lay off the 'facts' about it opening in 'empty' theaters and 'not being no 1' in any foreign territories

Man of steel made 170mil in product placement which is what really put it in profit margin
That 170 gets chopped off its budget so if they spent 300Mil like the rumours say then the movie actual cost was 130 this is something a lot of people forget when factoring man of steel box office
But if not for the product placement then it woulnt have had a of profit something like 220 mil I think after the foreign split.
But remember antman might not make its production cost back in the domestic market so really you can't compare the 2 movie
One might make 400mil when the other made 668 even with the diffrent budget cost man of steel will steAL balance out better without the product placement

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I once questioned him about BvS being a lock at a billion, he was saying 'it will do 2 billion easy', he then accused me of being biased and 'against DC/WB morals' and what not

He's looked foolish on more than a few occasions so take whatever he says with a grain of salt.

 

[dalonewolf]

Oh an btw, from the same Deadline article I just posted for you:

"Over the four years ending in 2012, international box office surged an astonishing 25%, from $27.7 billion to $34.7 billion, the MPAA reports. U.S. revenues, meanwhile, are seeing incremental increases at best, and this year will see a likely drop in box office income."

Those were four years ENDING in 2012 (i.e. 2008-2012). International expansion has been going on a lot longer than 3 years.

Dude your hopeless I never said it didnt I said it wasn't as big back then as it is now so between 2008 and 2012 the market went up 25%
It might be 50% right now think about what you are saying

 

[JtheDreamer]

But remember antman might not make its production cost back in the domestic market so really you can't compare the 2 movie

How can it not? It only cost $130 million to make! Look at CA:TFA's run and that only made $7mil more opening weekend.

Your comments are pure delusion. Factoring that it's a Marvel film and playing in the summer (repeat viewing for younger crowds), it's extremely unlikely it doesn't make it's production budget back.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Dude your hopeless I never said it didnt I said it wasn't as big back then as it is now so between 2008 and 2012 the market went up 25%
It might be 50% right now think about what you are saying

I'm hopeless? You told me earlier that the international BO only began expanding in the last 3 years. Then you also told me other non-CBM related properties don't count when looking at the numbers. Both were delusional statements.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Man of steel made 170mil in product placement which is what really put it in profit margin
That 170 gets chopped off its budget so if they spent 300Mil like the rumours say then the movie actual cost was 130 this is something a lot of people forget when factoring man of steel box office
But if not for the product placement then it woulnt have had a of profit something like 220 mil I think after the foreign split.
But remember antman might not make its production cost back in the domestic market so really you can't compare the 2 movie

And Obviously Ant-man is not gonna make anything from product placements, DVD sales/rent, merchandise sales etc?

We are talking box office only, and by your logic, MOS was a box-office bomb

One might make 400mil when the other made 668 even with the diffrent budget cost man of steel will steAL balance out better without the product placement

668m of a 225m budget is better than 400m of a 130m budget?

*Slowclap*

And about you saying it had no pull on females and children

"This is a great start, albeit not as big as some people said it would be, and Marvel has once again successfully expanded its stable of characters in a way that makes its universe fresh," said Disney distribution chief Dave Hollis, noting that Ant-Man drew the largest share of families (28 percent) and women (32 percent) of any Marvel superhero title.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-ant-man-no-809752

 

[dalonewolf]

He's looked foolish on more than a few occasions so take whatever he says with a grain of salt.

A billion is a lock anything over a billion would be a plus
Back then I didn't have a good understanding about box office But I do now.
I don't have too much pride to admit I didnt know much about something . You learn everyday
But I Was the one who didn't have understanding then don't know why you guys act like your the ones who don't have the understanding now
If you all think marvel was aiming for 400mil WW your letting your fanboy cloud your judgement
Just as I was with bvs

 

[dalonewolf]

Man of steel made 170mil in product placement which is what really put it in profit margin
That 170 gets chopped off its budget so if they spent 300Mil like the rumours say then the movie actual cost was 130 this is something a lot of people forget when factoring man of steel box office
But if not for the product placement then it woulnt have had a of profit something like 220 mil I think after the foreign split.
But remember antman might not make its production cost back in the domestic market so really you can't compare the 2 movie

And Obviously Ant-man is not gonna make anything from product placements, DVD sales/rent, merchandise sales etc?

We are talking box office only, and by your logic, MOS was a box-office bomb


668m of a 225m budget is better than 400m of a 130m budget?

*Slowclap*

See that's what I'm talking about product placement comes before the movie even is released why you act like you don't know that
And 120dom at the boxoffice for antman he will be lucky to have home video sales of 40mil
Man of steel made 107mil your just trying to make me seem bias when I'm telling fact
Now if the movie grosses 450-500 this conversation is over

 

[JtheDreamer]

See that's what I'm talking about product placement comes before the movie even is released why you act like you don't know that
And 120dom at the boxoffice for antman he will be lucky to have home video sales of 40mil
Man of steel made 107mil your just trying to make me seem bias when I'm telling fact
Now if the movie grosses 450-500 this conversation is over

 

[dalonewolf]

OK I won't say anything else next subject
What do you think it's final dom b.o will be?

 

[Dark Raven]

You really think they'll let him dick around for over 25 years on another project?

Fixed.

The first part of the movie set in 1989 was all Wright managed to film at the time he began working on it. That's why the Michael Douglas de-aging effects look so good, because he was actually that age when they first hired Edgar Wright. Douglas waited around for so long to shoot the next scene but Wright took his time, so they had to update the script to provide for the fact that he had aged in the meantime.