Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[Tony Stark]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=minions.htm

Anyone still think Minions is a bomb? Tony Stark?

OK, normally I just ignore troll fishing posts, and seeing as this is off topic, but because of what the initial discussion on Saturday to what I said, I'll clarify.

What I said was in context to the weekend was that all the films that weekend had performed below expectation, and Minions has on record the worst 2nd week drop for a big summer animated film, over Shrek the 3rd. Unless it recovers next week, it will likely not make it to 300M, it's definitely performing below DM2. I brought up discussion on the box office forums, that there was talk that minions wouldn't be profitiable because of the advertising budget, the same way TASM2 wasn't profitiable even though it make 700M world wide.

It's not a bomb, it's a disappointment for the franchise, and will likely cause them to rethink not wanting to pay to bring back Steve Carell for the next one.

In context to the weekend, the overall box office was down, which effected Ant-man and Trainwreck as well as minions.

Now freaking move along and quit trolling.

 

[Phish]

I think this is going to continue to be big for the next few weeks at least. It's getting nothing but positive reviews and good word of mouth.

 

[GL's Light]

I think this is going to continue to be for the next few weeks at least. It's getting nothing but positive reviews and good word of mouth.

Continue to be what?

 

[Tony Stark]

Continue to be what?

It's going to continue to be Ant-man. In answer to Scott's question, it is too late to change the name.

Sorry, seriously though, I think he's trying to say it will have good legs.

 

[Phish]

Continue to be what?

Sorry, deleted a word on accident.
Big, be big/#1 at the box office. Until Mission Impossible.

 

[GL's Light]

Sorry, deleted a word on accident.

No problem.

Big, be big/#1 at the box office. Until Mission Impossible.

Could be a pile-up of films in the top four next weekend all making similar money, depending on whether Pixels and/or Paper Towns break out and perform above expectations. I could see Ant-Man being anywhere from #1, if Pixels under-performs, to #4 if Pixels and Paper Towns both perform well and Minions stabilizes. It's really the dollar amount that matters more than the ranking, though. It needs about a $25 million second weekend to go on to have decent legs.

 

[Mike Murdock]

‏@BoxOffice
ANT-MAN took in $6.40M on Monday. 4-Day domestic total stands at $63.63M. #AntMan

That seems really good for a Monday. Granted, the next set of movies haven't been released (e.g., Pixels).

 

[Dyson]

I'm hopeful Ant-Man crosses over the $100 million mark by Sunday.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm hopeful Ant-Man crosses over the $100 million mark by Sunday.

Unless it completely collapses this weekend, and there's no reason it should, then it will.

 

[Dyson]

Unless it completely collapses this weekend, and there's no reason it should, then it will.

I have a good feeling this film will have great legs over the next few weeks.

 

[Tony Stark]

Best case scenario, Ant-man has a -50% ish drop that would put it around 28-29M. If it follows suit of other CBM's -55 to -58% it would be 23-26M. I think even at worst Pixels is going to finish 35M or better, so there's little chance of Ant-man being no. 1 again. Plus I think Pixels is going to be pretty successful, even though it will probably get panned by the critics. Nostalgia films are all the rage right now.

But Ant-man doesn't need to be no. 1 to have good legs.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

As I understand it right now Pixels is tracking for a mid-20s opening, which I find hard to credit but there it is.

Based on Mondays hold, which was a bit worse than TFA and a bit more worse than GotG, I'm expecting the weekend to lean closer to -55% than -50%. But we'll see, maybe it's just a weekend movie.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I have noticed the Bookface likes on their ads going up since it was released

 

[Wildcard]

I still think this will make between $400-$500 WW by the end of its run. Again, considering its on a $130 million budget that would be nothing short of fantastic.

 

[JKKS085]

Best case scenario, Ant-man has a -50% ish drop that would put it around 28-29M. If it follows suit of other CBM's -55 to -58% it would be 23-26M. I think even at worst Pixels is going to finish 35M or better, so there's little chance of Ant-man being no. 1 again. Plus I think Pixels is going to be pretty successful, even though it will probably get panned by the critics. Nostalgia films are all the rage right now.

But Ant-man doesn't need to be no. 1 to have good legs.

It's July -50% is not happening. The best case scenario is a GotG like -55% ish drop and I don't see it happening either. The realistic scenario is a standard -60% drop in line with CATFA.
So yes it has virtually no chance to remain first next week end, even if Pixels doesn't make a fuss, it's not opening under 25M and as bad as its legs are so far, Minions is probably looking at a 50% ish drop which would put it ahead of Ant-Man.
Also Ant-Man is loosing his Imax screens to Pixels (making it Disney's shorter Imax release of recent memory) which won't help.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=minions.htm

Anyone still think Minions is a bomb? Tony Stark?

Oh let it go ffs

‏@BoxOffice
ANT-MAN took in $6.40M on Monday. 4-Day domestic total stands at $63.63M. #AntMan

Eight fifty of that was mine yo

 

[Flint Marko]

I don't know anyone who wants to see Pixels, but I'm sure it'll make decent money.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Well, according to Variety, it should retain #1 with roughly $30M while THR just says Ant-Man will stay at #1. A 50% drop can still happen you know, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes had a 50% drop last July.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Here's the article, BTW: http://variety.com/2015/film/news/box-office-pixels-paper-towns-southpaw-1201544894/.

 

[GL's Light]

Variety is being very, very optimistic for the second weekend hold there. Too much so in my opinion, but we'll see.

The Hollywood Reporter says Ant-Man, Minions, and Pixels will battle for the top spot. If they've predicted that Ant-Man will win that battle, I can't find where they say that.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Well every geek/nerd worth his salt knows that Pixels is just a ripoff of a Futurama episode anyway

 

[Wildcard]

Would love it if Ant-Man beat Pixels.

 

[Capfan]

Do you think it is right to compare Ant-Man with movies such as SpiderMan, Man of Steel, Iron Man and so..

 

[Surfer]

After looking at the weekend Box Office of both Minions and Ant-man and even Mondays totals for both it seems Ant-man is holding strong. However, I think Ant-man's biggest battle at the Box Office relates to the number of screenings. Minions on opening weekend had 4301 screenings, and then went up to 4311 screenings for it's second weekend, which compares to only 3856 screenings for Ant-man. So, if Ant-man had the 4311 screenings and Minions had the 3856 screenings for that same weekend the divide between the 2 would have been even greater, and I can't help but think that Ant-man might have made it's 60-65 Million expected opening. So, it will be interesting to see if Minions will still dominate the number of screenings for it's 3rd weekend or if the theaters will even the playing field. I think Ant-man can definitely hold the number one spot, but not if it is being handicapped by the number of showings, as it should be close due to an increase of parents taking their small children to see Minions on the weekends. Same can be said for Pixels, but to a smaller degree. I think Ant-man will definitely continue to dominate for a little while though (during the week) drawing in a slightly older crowd. Well anyways, that is how I see it.

Surfer

 

[KahlanAmnell]

OK, normally I just ignore troll fishing posts, and seeing as this is off topic, but because of what the initial discussion on Saturday to what I said, I'll clarify.

What I said was in context to the weekend was that all the films that weekend had performed below expectation, and Minions has on record the worst 2nd week drop for a big summer animated film, over Shrek the 3rd. Unless it recovers next week, it will likely not make it to 300M, it's definitely performing below DM2. I brought up discussion on the box office forums, that there was talk that minions wouldn't be profitiable because of the advertising budget, the same way TASM2 wasn't profitiable even though it make 700M world wide.

It's not a bomb, it's a disappointment for the franchise, and will likely cause them to rethink not wanting to pay to bring back Steve Carell for the next one.

In context to the weekend, the overall box office was down, which effected Ant-man and Trainwreck as well as minions.

Now freaking move along and quit trolling.

Uhm, no. There's no context to consider. You did say Minions is a flop. You, along with the other trolls, were the ones who kept on dragging that movie and now you want people to drop it already. Pretty convenient.