Box Office Predictions

[GL's Light]

Speaking of theater counts, Ant-Man will lose its IMAX theaters this weekend since it was just signed for a one-week run in them.

 

[Steyin]

I can't even remember the last Sandler movie I watched in its entirety after I got past high school. His type of comedy just doesn't do anything for my anymore.

That's the problem with Sandler films, you either like his brand of comedy, which is still the same more or less, or you don't. I find that modern audience's tastes have changed, while Sandler hasn't adapted to the times. Not to say that there is anything wrong with that, but obviously it hasn't worked out for him as the box office shows.

I find Sandler an endearing guy, and usually enjoy his films. While he peaked comedy wise with Waterboy (or at least that was his last true great comedy), I still enjoy Little Nicky, Zohan, Grown Ups, etc, and especially 50 First Dates. He has fun and heart so I can't fault him much, no matter how idiotic the subject matter.

Back to AM, I feel WoM will keep the film going for a bit. Not worried about how it will do.

 

[Tony Stark]

-55% would be close to GotG or even TDK 2 films with crazy wom. However I'm wondering with that Tuesday increase if we're not looking at a change of landscape for the summer performers, with an audience (especially in the case of "family films") more likely to show up on week ends than they were a few years ago.

As for Minions frankly I don't know. The movie itself is pretty bad (and the 2nd week end drop is some sort of record I think for an animated film) but do kids really care ? Maybe it's going to affect multiple viewings with parents less likely to let themselves dragged to see it a second time around but even a stinker like Shrek 3 "only" dropped 47,2% on its 3rd week end, granted it wasn't in July but that also was after an "inflated" memorial day week end. Realistically I think a drop under 50% for Minions is likely (especially after that spectacular Tuesday bump).

But back to the topic at hand, I think things are alining very positively for Ant-Man going on its second week end. It's increase on Tuesday is great (putting its dailies above those of CATFA) and I think a lot of goodwill is building up towards the film (which is somewhat of an abstract thing to say I agree). And the very expected backlash Pixels is getting is definitely going to help.

When comparing it to any of those movies you have to realize that almost every other genre movie is more front loaded than this one. Thor 1 had a under 50% drop in week 2. So -55% or even -50% is not unheard of for this genre, and it would be more likely with Ant-man than other bigger films, because the bigger the opening the more front loaded it tends to be. The only exceptions being Spider-man 1, TDK and Avengers. Spider-man 1 had a second week drop that will go unrivaled by any movie in this genre.

Guardians was also offset by the fact that TMNT was a surprise hit, and over performed over studio analysis. Ant-man won't face that kind of competition.

 

[Tony Stark]

Speaking of theater counts, Ant-Man will lose its IMAX theaters this weekend since it was just signed for a one-week run in them.

That's bad news. This is the best looking movie in IMAX that I have seen in a long time.

 

[JtheDreamer]

That's bad news. This is the best looking movie in IMAX that I have seen in a long time.

Luckily we have a few other digital theaters near me (Ultrastar and iPic). I'm gonna go see it a second time at one of them. The screens aren't as large as the IMAX though.

The three IMAX theaters around the Phoenix valley are at such dumpy theaters. I generally avoid them.

 

[InCali]

Speaking of theater counts, Ant-Man will lose its IMAX theaters this weekend since it was just signed for a one-week run in them.

That's not entirely true. The largest IMAX theater (TCL Chinese) in Los Angeles (okay, Hollywood) has Ant-Man playing this weekend and I'm sure they aren't alone. This theater, BTW, hold an astounding 932 people. They have 5 showings a day (one every 3 hours).

Even if it loses seats, the opening weekend generally gets the largest percentage of premium 3D seats sold. A quick calc tells me that AM will easily cross 150M and probably go substantially higher than that.

It is true that the 3D in this movie was really, really well done. It really added to the movie and I suspect 3D will be an important factor in the overall box office numbers. I think it's going to have very good legs because the word of mouth and quality of the movie. It was probably the most fun MCU movie other than (maybe) GotG.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

That's bad news. This is the best looking movie in IMAX that I have seen in a long time.

It fits with what we've seen in terms of support for the film, though. Marvel appears to have significantly limited its spending behind Ant-Man. Deadline has an estimate of $55 million for domestic P&A costs, and I'll bet you anything that more than half of that was "spent" in Disney-owned media.

I can't say I blame them, given all the drama behind the scenes.

 

[JtheDreamer]

It fits with what we've seen in terms of support for the film, though. Marvel appears to have significantly limited its spending behind Ant-Man. Deadline has an estimate of $55 million for domestic P&A costs, and I'll bet you anything that more than half of that was "spent" in Disney-owned media.

I can't say I blame them, given all the drama behind the scenes.

That's what I was saying. At least half those costs were basically spent within' the Disney family. Hence a nice chunk of profitability when everything is said and done.

 

[InCali]

When comparing it to any of those movies you have to realize that almost every other genre movie is more front loaded than this one. Thor 1 had a under 50% drop in week 2. So -55% or even -50% is not unheard of for this genre, and it would be more likely with Ant-man than other bigger films, because the bigger the opening the more front loaded it tends to be. The only exceptions being Spider-man 1, TDK and Avengers. Spider-man 1 had a second week drop that will go unrivaled by any movie in this genre.

Guardians was also offset by the fact that TMNT was a surprise hit, and over performed over studio analysis. Ant-man won't face that kind of competition.

Avengers had about a 50% drop second week. Avatar (not really comic book) dropped almost nothing. MI:RN may VERY well be some stiff 3rd week competition. I've been hearing some very positive early rumblings. The jet scene trailer with Tom strapped to the side of the jet while it was taking off was pretty eye opening. I still see at least 3X multiplier for Ant-Man; putting it over 170M domestic. That could be close, but that's what I think.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I still see at least 3X multiplier for Ant-Man; putting it over 170M domestic. That could be close, but that's what I think.

 

[GL's Light]

That's not entirely true. The largest IMAX theater (TCL Chinese) in Los Angeles (okay, Hollywood) has Ant-Man playing this weekend and I'm sure they aren't alone. This theater, BTW, hold an astounding 932 people. They have 5 showings a day (one every 3 hours).

Interesting. I was going by reports from the box office forums. I didn't think IMAX theaters were able to make individual decisions about how long to run films for. Maybe there are exceptions.

 

[InCali]

Like it!

Additionally, I think this is going to do VERY well overseas (I think the humor will translate better than GotG because it didn't make as much use of idioms) and can see it in the 500M neighborhood; and that isn't a bad neighborhood to live in.

 

[InCali]

Interesting. I was going by reports from the box office forums. I didn't think IMAX theaters were able to make individual decisions about how long to run films for. Maybe there are exceptions.

I'll do a spot check and get back.

EDIT: Same with Irvine Spectrum. Exact same schedule too. And IMAX Universal too. 5 shows per day starting at 11:15am and the last one at 11pm.

Not to mention the Cinemark XD theaters (Cinemark's answer to IMAX....not quite as good, but much better than AMC LieMax). Some of these are showing Pixels and others are keeping Ant-Man. If you'd like to see my movie theater reviews, go to

http://www.cloudvistas.com/movie-theater-reviews-all-about-projection-screen-and-sound/

The biggest problem with IMAX is that most can't do digital projections (the TCL Chinese and IMAX in Toronto are exceptions and have the new IMAX digital projector.....which is REALLY impressive).

I also have links to my comic book collection and my Tolkien book collection off the main page.

The bottom line is that I think AM can do very well this weekend as they appear to be keeping a lot of their premium 3D showings. We will see.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ant-Man's scheduled in my local IMAX through 7/31, when it gives up the screen to MI:RN.

 

[GL's Light]

This summer has seen a pattern of unusually strong Tuesday numbers followed by Wednesday drops that bring things back down to Earth. Early, unofficial word is that the same will be true for this week's Wednesday numbers, following the strong Tuesday.

 

[InCali]

This summer has seen a pattern of unusually strong Tuesday numbers followed by Wednesday drops that bring things back down to Earth. Early, unofficial word is that the same will be true for this week's Wednesday numbers, following the strong Tuesday.

Still, 6-7M on weekdays (obviously helped by summer) is pretty strong.

I wonder why that is? People just looking at Monday and Tuesday as extensions of their weekends???

 

[Docker2.0]

I saw Avengers opening night which was the worst mistake ever because I had these loud witches that wouldn't shut up at all. I plan on seeing Antman this weekend because of less people. It could very well be the case on why a lot of people don't like to do opening nights any more.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

I prefer early weekdays to avoid the crowd. Fewer people means less distractions and you have your choice of seating. Plus afternoon matinee tix are cheaper.

 

[GL's Light]

I wonder why that is? People just looking at Monday and Tuesday as extensions of their weekends???

Mondays are functioning as normal. It's just Tuesdays that are doing bigger business than usual. It's been speculated that it may be because a lot of people are taking advantage of the special offers that a lot of theaters offer on Tuesdays.

 

[InCali]

I saw Avengers opening night which was the worst mistake ever because I had these loud witches that wouldn't shut up at all. I plan on seeing Antman this weekend because of less people. It could very well be the case on why a lot of people don't like to do opening nights any more.

I've said it before. My favorite time is Friday morning shows if I can get off work. They aren't packed. My second Ant-Man show was Sunday around noonish. A guy had his two kids (aged about 7 and 10). The youngest one kept asking questions "Why he doing that?" "What did he say that?" etc.....urrrgggg....I like little curtain crawlers and rug rats as much as anyone (I guess), but the movie stuff drives me to distraction.

 

[InCali]

Mondays are functioning as normal. It's just Tuesdays that are doing bigger business than usual. It's been speculated that it may be because a lot of people are taking advantage of the special offers that a lot of theaters offer on Tuesdays.

Ahhhhh.....that makes sense. The Cinemark XD at the Howard Hughes Center in LA has a $7 special. Premium showings add a surcharge, but are still substantially cheaper than normal. Interesting.

 

[JC00]

Pixels is getting scathing reviews. 6% on RT for Top Critics and 16% for All Critics. IMO it's going to bomb this weekend.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I prefer early weekdays to avoid the crowd. Fewer people means less distractions and you have your choice of seating. Plus afternoon matinee tix are cheaper.

I love having a crowd, provided they're not obnoxious. Just something about the "shared" experience in the theater, especially for comedies. I don't want to sit there laughing by myself.

 

[InCali]

Pixels is getting scathing reviews. 6% on RT for Top Critics and 16% for All Critics. IMO it's going to bomb this weekend.

That's certainly possible. I thought the trailers just stunk. Obviously, this isn't something you take a date to. I don't know if the targeted kid's age group ever even heard of PacMan or DonkeyKong. I don't really like video games that much. Never did. Always preferred movies.

 

[Smurphftw]

I agree that a good crowd that's really into the movie can really be a positive to the overall experience. Midnight showings are a great example, because the people that show up at midnight are going to be the ones who are the most excited to see the film. They laugh/cheer at all the appropriate times. Makes it more fun in my opinion.