Ant-Man Box Office Predictions

[JtheDreamer]

Variety is being very, very optimistic for the second weekend hold there. Too much so in my opinion, but we'll see.

The Hollywood Reporter says Ant-Man, Minions, and Pixels will battle for the top spot. If they've predicted that Ant-Man will win that battle, I can't find where they say that.

Pixels will bomb.

 

[Rowsdower!]

I'm not sure that Pixels will bomb. Since Adam Sandler is in it, it probably SHOULD bomb, but I think it will appeal both to kids and adults who grew up playing those games. And the concept IS a lot of fun. But couldn't they have gotten a better lead actor?

 

[GL's Light]

I'm not sure that Pixels will bomb. Since Adam Sandler is in it, it probably SHOULD bomb, but I think it will appeal both to kids and adults who grew up playing those games. And the concept IS a lot of fun. But couldn't they have gotten a better lead actor?

One of the internal emails in the Sony hack laid out self-criticisms from Sony employees about where the studio is going wrong. It included a note about Pixels, saying that most other studios would turn that concept into a huge event movie, while Sony makes it as an Adam Sandler comedy.

I still think the concept is strong enough to carry the film to #1, but you never know.

 

[Rowsdower!]

Yeah, it is disappointing. I also just looked it up and found out it's a Happy Madison production, so yeah... it's going to suck. I had some hope for it because I thought it was just a regular movie that happened to have Sandler in it... but the fact that his production company is part of it makes me want to avoid it like the plague.

 

[GL's Light]

Minions made $8.02 million on Tuesday. If early, unofficial word bears out, Ant-Man may have a similarly good number. We'll know soon.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yah, I saw that $8 million number earlier too. Would be a very good Tuesday bump if true.

 

[GL's Light]

#2 Ant-Man - $7,853,189 (+23%) for a $71,482,616 domestic gross so far.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Sweet. Gives me a bit of hope for the weekend.

Meanwhile, Pixels is getting mauled by the early critics on RT. At 16% right now.

 

[Zarex]

Ant Man winning two weeks in a row, even if its main competition is a stinker like Pixels, should remove a lot of the negativity surrounding the film's BO performance.

 

[TeeKay]

Critics are deatryoing Pixels wow.

 

[JtheDreamer]

Critics are deatryoing Pixels wow.

I'm shocked.

In other late breaking news, the sky is blue.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's July -50% is not happening. The best case scenario is a GotG like -55% ish drop and I don't see it happening either. The realistic scenario is a standard -60% drop in line with CATFA.
So yes it has virtually no chance to remain first next week end, even if Pixels doesn't make a fuss, it's not opening under 25M and as bad as its legs are so far, Minions is probably looking at a 50% ish drop which would put it ahead of Ant-Man.
Also Ant-Man is loosing his Imax screens to Pixels (making it Disney's shorter Imax release of recent memory) which won't help.

I agree it's probably not happening, and -55% would be more realistic. The big point is, even in a best case scenario, I think Pixels will make more than 30M, even if it bombs.

I think Minions could be in for a steeper drop. Look at the RT audience ratings. That film has horrible word of mouth. I actually liked it, but I don't see many others do.

 

[Tony Stark]

Uhm, no. There's no context to consider. You did say Minions is a flop. You, along with the other trolls, were the ones who kept on dragging that movie and now you want people to drop it already. Pretty convenient.

Do yourself a favor Mr. less than 100 posts. Go read what I actually said about the movie, if you can find the thread because it's been dead since the film came out.

While the film has a shoestring plot and the negative critical reaction is understandable, this film has enough humorous moments in it, to make it well worth the price of admission. I personally enjoyed it more than In and Out, which is surprising to me.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=31797927&postcount=32

The idea that I was trolling the film is ridiculous. I wrote about it in context to all the movies having lowered from their predictions, meaning the overall boxoffice was down over the weekend.

Nobody but Vile One was harping on it. Read the thread, instead of knee jerk reaction. You might build a better reputation for yourself on the board.

 

[Tony Stark]

Critics are deatryoing Pixels wow.

Yeah I was pretty sure that was going to happen. I still think it will be successful, because of the nostalgia draw, much like TMNT was last year.

 

[JKKS085]

I agree it's probably not happening, and -55% would be more realistic. The big point is, even in a best case scenario, I think Pixels will make more than 30M, even if it bombs.

I think Minions could be in for a steeper drop. Look at the RT audience ratings. That film has horrible word of mouth. I actually liked it, but I don't see many others do.

-55% would be close to GotG or even TDK 2 films with crazy wom. However I'm wondering with that Tuesday increase if we're not looking at a change of landscape for the summer performers, with an audience (especially in the case of "family films") more likely to show up on week ends than they were a few years ago.

As for Minions frankly I don't know. The movie itself is pretty bad (and the 2nd week end drop is some sort of record I think for an animated film) but do kids really care ? Maybe it's going to affect multiple viewings with parents less likely to let themselves dragged to see it a second time around but even a stinker like Shrek 3 "only" dropped 47,2% on its 3rd week end, granted it wasn't in July but that also was after an "inflated" memorial day week end. Realistically I think a drop under 50% for Minions is likely (especially after that spectacular Tuesday bump).

But back to the topic at hand, I think things are alining very positively for Ant-Man going on its second week end. It's increase on Tuesday is great (putting its dailies above those of CATFA) and I think a lot of goodwill is building up towards the film (which is somewhat of an abstract thing to say I agree). And the very expected backlash Pixels is getting is definitely going to help.

 

[seriesofdreams]

Critics are deatryoing Pixels wow.

Down to 10% now with 29 in. Yikes.

The Tuesday numbers look good for Ant-Man. I remain optimistic.

 

[Vincanws]

Down to 10% now with 29 in. Yikes.

The Tuesday numbers look good for Ant-Man. I remain optimistic.

Be interesting to see whether the RT score makes much difference. Maybe dad's really will take their kids to any old guff to keep them occupied. Or maybe they'll go see Ant-Man.

 

[rashad]

Transformers also got panned by critics. I'm just saying.

 

[Leenie]

I hope Ant-Man does well. It's definitely one of the better movies I've seen this Summer.

To be honest, though, I'm sad that Pixels seems to be such a terrible movie. Why oh why was that fun concept given to Happy Madison? I don't even mind Adam Sandler (sometimes, that is; the guy can be good when he wants to be), but Happy Madison ... ? Yeesh.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I'm not going to lie, I loved Sandler growing up. I had his comedy albums and he was great on SNL. To this day, Happy Gilmore holds a special place in my heart and I can't hear or see Bob Barker without "The price is wrong b****" popping into my head haha. I also loved Billy Madison and Bulletproof is a seriously underrated film but, I think he just kind of went into autopilot mode after Big Daddy. Once he made it big he no longer seemed to care about trying to stay fresh and/or relevant. I haven't been excited about any news regarding one of his films in a long time.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I'm not going to lie, I loved Sandler growing up. I had his comedy albums and he was great on SNL. To this day, Happy Gilmore holds a special place in my heart and I can't hear or see Bob Barker without "The price is wrong b****" popping into my head haha. I also loved Billy Madison and Bulletproof is a seriously underrated film but, I think he just kind of went into autopilot mode after Big Daddy. Once he made it big he no longer seemed to care about trying to stay fresh and/or relevant. I haven't been excited about any news regarding one of his films in a long time.

Happy Madison Productions did put out one gem after Sandler's prime: "Grandma's Boy".

I love the hell out of that movie. So many great quotes.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I can't even remember the last Sandler movie I watched in its entirety after I got past high school. His type of comedy just doesn't do anything for my anymore.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I can't even remember the last Sandler movie I watched in its entirety after I got past high school. His type of comedy just doesn't do anything for my anymore.

After Water Boy it was all downhill. In fact, the very next film was Little Nicky.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Happy Madison Productions did put out one gem after Sandler's prime: "Grandma's Boy".

I love the hell out of that movie. So many great quotes.

Ya that is a great film. I watched it many times since I had it on DVD back in the day

 

[Surfer]

The thing is that while Ant-man earned less than Minions on Tuesday. Minions was in 4311 theaters, and Ant-man was in 3856. However, if you look at the take per each theater Ant-man is still making better numbers per theater with an average of $2037.00 per theater compared to Minions which only had an average of $1860.00 per theater. So, it is hard to say if theater owners will lower the number of theaters Minions is playing in substantially enough for Ant-man to take the number one spot as it should be a tight race if things are on an even playing field for both titles. I really don't think Pixels is going to do that well, but could be wrong. It's just the word of mouth is pretty poor on that title, so not expecting much. Link below for source of information.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Surfer