Box Office Predictions

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I love having a crowd, provided they're not obnoxious. Just something about having the "shared" experience in the theater, especially for comedies. I don't want to sit there laughing by myself.

I like a big crowd for certain things, like raunchy comedies or good horror flicks (I plan to catch Paranormal Activity 57 in October) or the occasional huge event film (Episode VII!). Most of the time tho I just want to see a film hassle free.
 
Pixels is getting scathing reviews. 6% on RT for Top Critics and 16% for All Critics. IMO it's going to bomb this weekend.
It may or may not flop, but reviews won't play much of a role in that. Grown Ups 2 had an RT rating of 7% and opened to $41.5 million.
 
Avengers had about a 50% drop second week. Avatar (not really comic book) dropped almost nothing. MI:RN may VERY well be some stiff 3rd week competition. I've been hearing some very positive early rumblings. The jet scene trailer with Tom strapped to the side of the jet while it was taking off was pretty eye opening. I still see at least 3X multiplier for Ant-Man; putting it over 170M domestic. That could be close, but that's what I think.

True with Avengers, I don't consider Avatar a comic book genre, I was more trying to compare film in a similar genre.

You're also right that how this holds against MI5 will be the key. Both TIH and FF'05, had close to the same opening and second week drop. FF'05 only had a 44% drop in week 3 where TIH had a 56% drop, which is why TIH only made 134M and FF'05 made 154M.

That's why if it can hold %55 or under this weekend, with relatively weak competition, it will bode well for going up against MI5, where it can absorb a little bit bigger hit and still cross 150M.
 
I agree that a good crowd that's really into the movie can really be a positive to the overall experience. Midnight showings are a great example, because the people that show up at midnight are going to be the ones who are the most excited to see the film. They laugh/cheer at all the appropriate times. Makes it more fun in my opinion.

I could see going to a midnight show on Thursday if I had Friday off. My work day starts at 4am so midnight showings generally don't work out. Plus I'm cheap when it comes to spending money on myself so I like weekday, before noon early birds.
 
Bullish prediction for Pixels there. I wonder what the latest tracking numbers are.

Edit to add: Minions made $5,173,200 on Wednesday. The Ant-Man number should be reported soon.
 
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I could see going to a midnight show on Thursday if I had Friday off. My work day starts at 4am so midnight showings generally don't work out. Plus I'm cheap when it comes to spending money on myself so I like weekday, before noon early birds.

I start early too so I need to take the following Friday off if I'm gonna do that. It's been awhile since I've been to a midnight showing, but when I do the atmosphere is always fantastic. You can just feel the excitement around you.
 
True with Avengers, I don't consider Avatar a comic book genre, I was more trying to compare film in a similar genre.

You're also right that how this holds against MI5 will be the key. Both TIH and FF'05, had close to the same opening and second week drop. FF'05 only had a 44% drop in week 3 where TIH had a 56% drop, which is why TIH only made 134M and FF'05 made 154M.

That's why if it can hold %55 or under this weekend, with relatively weak competition, it will bode well for going up against MI5, where it can absorb a little bit bigger hit and still cross 150M.

I'm one of those idiots who actually liked the first FF movie. Probably because I was so hungry to see what was probably my favorite Marvel SH group. I liked Chris Evans, but it would just be crazy to think that it was a better movie than Ant-Man. Weird how the BO numbers can be so similar. Names can play a role it that I suppose.

When I told my wife we should go see Ant-Man, she said okay, but later told me she was thinking "Ant-Man?? Seriously??". She absolutely loved it. I think it'll do better than most expect long term because it was very entertaining, family friendly, and generally just well done. Word of mouth helps.
 
Bullish prediction for Pixels there. I wonder what the latest tracking numbers are.

Not saying it's going to happen but don't be surprised if Pixels is Sandler's highest OW to date($47.6m is his current record for The Longest Yard). His movies have long ago proved to be critic proof.
 
Not saying it's going to happen but don't be surprised if Pixels is Sandler's highest OW to date($47.6m is his current record for The Longest Yard). His movies have long ago proved to be critic proof.

To be honest, I can see why the critics pan a lot of his movies. I'm a lousy critic, but some of those movies are SO bad it's almost embarrassing. As you say though, he seems to have a loyal following. Go figure.
 
FWIW (and it may not be worth a whole lot) presales #'s for Pixels on movietickets.com are quite weak, just 8% of tix sold. Paper Towns is beating it. But yeah, Sandler has a track record of beating the critics.

Good Wednesday number for Ant-Man, Brings us up to $76.5 million. It should easily top $80 million today.
 
Not saying it's going to happen but don't be surprised if Pixels is Sandler's highest OW to date($47.6m is his current record for The Longest Yard). His movies have long ago proved to be critic proof.

That's not true at all. Blended, That's My Boy, Jack and Jill, Funny People, Spanglish, Reign Over Me, Punch-Drunk Love and Little Nicky prove that.
 
That's not true at all. Blended, That's My Boy, Jack and Jill, Funny People, Spanglish, Reign Over Me, Punch-Drunk Love and Little Nicky prove that.
It wasn't the response of the critics that determined which of his films did well and which didn't. Punch-Drunk Love (79% on RT) is his best reviewed movie as a lead actor and it did poorly at the box office. Funny People and Reign Over Me are likewise among the few films he's done that are rated fresh on RT, yet they did mediocre business and poor business respectively, while a lot of his biggest hits have terrible RT ratings.
 
It wasn't the response of the critics that determined which of his films did well and which didn't. Punch-Drunk Love (79% on RT) is his best reviewed movie as a lead actor and it did poorly at the box office. Funny People and Reign Over Me are likewise among the few films he's done that are rated fresh on RT, yet they did mediocre business and poor business respectively, while a lot of his biggest hits have terrible RT ratings.


Good job missing my point to spin it. Fact is Sandler is not critic proof. Some of his movies do good and some of his movies are bombs.
 
Good job missing my point to spin it. Fact is Sandler is not critic proof. Some of his movies do good and some of his movies are bombs.
I don't think I missed your point and I'm not spinning anything. Sandler has had movies with bad reviews flop and he's had movies with bad reviews become big hits. His movies with good reviews have done poor to middling business. The logical conclusion is that reviews don't have a deciding influence in how his movies perform at the box office.
 
Not saying it's going to happen but don't be surprised if Pixels is Sandler's highest OW to date($47.6m is his current record for The Longest Yard). His movies have long ago proved to be critic proof.

I forgot about the Longest Yard, I actually love that movie
 
I forgot about the Longest Yard, I actually love that movie

I thought that was one of his better ones, but I just don't connect with his humor very often (thought 50 First Dates was okay too). I know people like Will Ferrell too, but I.....ugh.....
 
I love Will Ferrell! Anchorman 1 and 2 are some of the best comedies of our time
 
I love Will Ferrell! Anchorman 1 and 2 are some of the best comedies of our time

I hated pretty much all the sequels to recent comedies who's originals I loved.

- Anchorman 2
- Dumber and Dumber 2
- Hot Tub Time Machine 2
- 22 Jump Street
- Horrible Bosses 2
 
22 Jump Street is the easily the best of that bunch. I thought it was hilarious.
 
That's not true at all. Blended, That's My Boy, Jack and Jill, Funny People, Spanglish, Reign Over Me, Punch-Drunk Love and Little Nicky prove that.


Blended made almost $127m on a $40m budget. That's a reasonable hit by any stretch of the imagination when your movie brings in 3X your budget. RT score = 14% so critics didn't do bupkiss to that one. And...

Jack & Jill: budget $25m/ total gross $74m/ RT score = 3%

Funny People, Spanglish, Reign Over Me, Punch-Drunk Love all earned more positive reviews than negative ones and all but 1 of those 4 is fresh on the tomatometer. In a lot of ways these aren't Adam Sandler films. They simply happen to star him but they are a far cry from the craptastic Happy Madison joints which are true Sandler films.

Little Nicky is the only bomb on your list and that was 15 years ago with an $85m budget:-)eek:I dunno how that got approved) and a $58m total gross. Sandler is one of the safest bets in Hollywood.With the notable exception of LN here his films always come in around $40m or less in the budget and they always turn a profit and nothing the critics say has much of any effect, especially when they are determined to crap all over him. The only times Sandler tends to not do so well is when critics are ok with him, nominally or otherwise.

Edit: I just checked and That's My Boy was also a bomb and far more recent(2012). The fact remains though that he's still among the safer bets in Hollywood and the vast majority of the time the critics are powerless against the might of Happy Madison. Ditto for Michael Bay.

In fact I think this is why the critics hate them so much. They hate to be proved to be irrelevant.
 
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Keep in mind though these numbers are only for production budgets.

Also $127 million worldwide doesn't equate to an automatic $87 million in profit to the studio.
 
Box office of 3X production budget generally leads to a good profit when taking all costs and revenues into account.
 
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