Transformers Box Office Thread

[Erzengel]

Well, the larger Potter's opening is could actually help TF since you'd have a higher % chance of a spillover rate

Domestically, Potter has a tough time keeping up with the other blockbusters. Obviously, worldwide is a different story but if history repeats itself, Potter may find itself behind SM3, Shrek 3, AWE, TF and maybe even the Simpsons, at least in North America.

I know that Goublet was #1 WW 2 years ago, but domestically it was #3

 

[Starscreamer]

I have seen TF three times so far and I will be going again!

 

[matrix_ghost]

Potter is a monster...everyone knows that. Plus its the 5th movie in the franchise.

As mentioned before, TF is the first of what is sure to be a blockbuster franchise.

So having said that, 8 mil isn't bad when compared to 12 mil for an alreadly established series.

I don't care wheter 8 million is higher / lower then POtter .
What i'm looking at is the numbers. 12 million from midnight screenings would mean that Potter would gross more in it's first 6 days then TF
The question is how TF will hold up against Potter. Will it have a drop off of 30 % 50 % or more then 50 %

 

[Erzengel]

Not necessarily, TF had the advantage of a holiday in it's mix. Just cause Potter made 12 million compared to TF's 8 million, doesn't necessarily mean that it'll make more after 6 days.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Not necessarily, TF had the advantage of a holiday in it's mix. Just cause Potter made 12 million compared to TF's 8 million, doesn't necessarily mean that it'll make more after 6 days.

True but i think it will make more.

 

[Erzengel]

True but i think it will make more.

Worldwide probably, domestically Potter isn't as popular in the States. I don't say that as a matter of opinion, I say that just based on domestic grosses of the past 3 films.

 

[matrix_ghost]

Worldwide probably, domestically Potter isn't as popular in the States. I don't say that as a matter of opinion, I say that just based on domestic grosses of the past 3 films.

I was talking about the 6 day gross , not the total BO.
We all know that Potter always scores better in the foreign markets.
Domestic no Potter flick has reached the same amount of $$ that the first Potter flick made.

Te only other Potter flick to be released in the summer was Azkaban and that made the lest amount of money domestically
But one of the things that can help this Potter gross more and keep it in the cinemas for a longer time is the Imax 3-D. It was the saving grace for SR and from what i've read it's really worth it.

Plus loads of kids & parents are gonna watch the Potter movies and kids especially love 3-D stuff. IMO i think this'll keep the movie in the cinema for quite some time.
Will it be enough to outgross the other flicks. Dunno about that but i think this movie has potential to at make just as the last Potter flick domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

The last Potter flick did only $250 million, granted that was during the Winter but you have TF easily making that.

I'm seeing estimates for Potter at around $80 million which is only $10 million more than TF.

I think TF has the advantage with the July 4th holiday. In it's 6 days release, only one day was below $20 million.

 

[matrix_ghost]

The last Potter flick did only $250 million, granted that was during the Winter but you have TF easily making that.

I'm seeing estimates for Potter at around $80 million which is only $10 million more than TF.

I think TF has the advantage with the July 4th holiday. In it's 6 days release, only one day was below $20 million.

It was 290 .
Azkaban made 249 in the summer of '04.

 

[tviceman]

Domestically, Potter has a tough time keeping up with the other blockbusters. Obviously, worldwide is a different story but if history repeats itself, Potter may find itself behind SM3, Shrek 3, AWE, TF and maybe even the Simpsons, at least in North America.

I know that Goublet was #1 WW 2 years ago, but domestically it was #3

Come on now, Potter has never performed "poorly" in the U.S. It's lowest grossing movie did $250 million domestically on a budget half that. If you think that is poor performance, you are impossible to please. The Simpsons won't come close to Potter. Potter will likely do twice the B.O. numbers domestically vs. The Simpsons.

But back on topic...

If you take day vs. day, then Transformers is currently a little behind Pirates, but Pirates had a massive first weekend and then dropped off significantly. Transformers B.O. numbers have been more consistent. If the trend continues this way, Transformers will outperfom Pirates and make over $300 million.

 

[Erzengel]

Whoops my bad. Still regardless, TF seems to be having a good word of mouth. Last Tuesday to Sunday, it only went under $20 milllion once and that was $19 million. Even if it makes $80 million this weekend, can we expect over $20 million days for tomorrow and Monday?

 

[Erzengel]

Come on now, Potter has never performed "poorly" in the U.S. It's lowest grossing movie did $250 million domestically on a budget half that. If you think that is poor performance, you are impossible to please. The Simpsons won't come close to Potter. Potter will likely do twice the B.O. numbers domestically vs. The Simpsons.

I'm not saying Potter does poorly, just not as well domestically comparing to the other blockbusters. Proof is in the numbers, Potter is usually #1 to #2 WW and yet even 2 years ago it was #1 WW but finished #3 domestically.

There are some movies that just do better overseas than domestically. Pirates just got passed by Shrek the Third domestically but has the highest ww total.

 

[tviceman]

I'm not saying Potter does poorly, just not as well domestically comparing to the other blockbusters. Proof is in the numbers, Potter is usually #1 to #2 WW and yet even 2 years ago it was #1 WW but finished #3 domestically.

There are some movies that just do better overseas than domestically. Pirates just got passed by Shrek the Third domestically but has the highest ww total.

Still, contrary to one of your previous posts, Potter will do 2x the domestic box office as the simpsons.

 

[Erzengel]

So at best you think Simpsons is going to only do like around $150 million?

 

[Loathus]

So at best you think Simpsons is going to only do like around $150 million?

The trailers don't seem funny at all... to me this is just a 1 and a half hour episode.... not worth the price of admission.

 

[FCEEVIPER]

300? Oh hell yeah it will.


Tuesday's totals...

 

[tviceman]

So at best you think Simpsons is going to only do like around $150 million?

Pretty close. I actually think, at best, Simpsons will do $130 million. It's not a movie people will see 2 or 3 times, and it's the type of movie that casual movie goers may skip over due to the fact that it's not a "must see at a theatre to appreciate" movie.

 

[Excel]

On the CS mainpage , it's reported that Potter made 12 million from midnight screenings alone. By comparison , TF made 8 million from midnight screenings. If this is any indication Potter is going to open very big. WOnder how much it'll affect TF

tf made 8 million during 8-12 pms; 4 hours of showings. potter did with only 12 pms.

 

[Excel]

And most of the sites aren't predicting more than a 50% drop.

good for them. its dropping literally 55% minimum take my word for it.

 

[tviceman]

tf made 8 million during 8-12 pms; 4 hours of showings. potter did with only 12 pms.

I've been looking over some of your previous predictions for Transformers and Potter and you've generally been underestimating Transformers and overestimating Potter. You thought Transformers would die out around $250 million (which will be obviously wrong by it's third weekend), while Potter will open up over $160 million in the first five days (which, btw would be Potter's best 5 day opening by $40 million). Your $160 million guesstimation will be way off.

Potter will do really well, but I'm going to make a thread titled "Haha excel I'm laughing at you" when your prediction that Potter will "crush" Transformers is proven false.

Internationally Potter will take in alot more, but I guarantee Transformers will beat Potter domestically.

 

[Erzengel]

Pretty close. I actually think, at best, Simpsons will do $130 million. It's not a movie people will see 2 or 3 times, and it's the type of movie that casual movie goers may skip over due to the fact that it's not a "must see at a theatre to appreciate" movie.

We are talking about a show that's been on for 20 years. I think it's going to do a little better than Fantastic Four which is at $123 million right now.

 

[tviceman]

We are talking about a show that's been on for 20 years. I think it's going to do a little better than Fantastic Four which is at $123 million right now.

How much do you think it'll gross domestically?

 

[Erzengel]

good for them. its dropping literally 55% minimum take my word for it.

So you know than most of these tracking sites?

 

[Erzengel]

How much do you think it'll gross domestically?

$200 million?

 

[tviceman]

$200 million?

Wow.... well let me know if you still think that after it's first weekend. We'll talk about it more then!